SPREADS
July crush trades to 67c/bu while oilshare trades at 38.0%. The Jly/Nov bean inverse weakens to 1.26 1/2c from 1.38c, while May/July trades down to 4 1/4c from 5 3/4c. July/Dec meal trades down to $14.30 from $15.30. July/Dec corn trades down to 52 3/4c from 55 1/2c, while May/July inverse trades from 14 1/2c to 14 3/4c. May/July wheat trades from 1c to 1/2c inverse, barely hanging on to this one. July wheat/corn tradeas from 64c up to 69c.
PALM OIL
June up 3 ringgits. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council said they believe crude palm oil prices will average 2.846 ringgit for the Q2 2021 time period and peak at 4,190 ringgit/mt. Soyoil ending stocks at the end of 2021 could be 1.12 mmt, which if realized would mark the third year in a row for lower figures.
NEWS
Stocks are up 240 pts with the US dollar trading down to 92.82. Crude oil prices traded to $59.59/barrel before stabilizing. Stocks are higher following a strong jobs report which showed that employers had added a seasonally adjusted 916,000 jobs in March, the best gain since August. Inflation may be sustained at 2%. Crude oil trades to $59.59/barrel, with the US dollar trading down to 92.81.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 11-13 higher
meal: 4.50-5.00 higher
soyoil: 55-65 higher
corn: mixed
wheat: 2 1/2-3 1/2 higher
canola: 5.50-6.00 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reported 130,000 mt of SRW wheat sold to unknown of 21/22
TECHNICALS
May Corn: Overall trading range is kicked up a bit, with key support at $5.50-$5.55. Prices begin on the defensive, but a trade back to $5.55 should hold for a consolidation phase from $5.55-$5.85. The price action would have been more impressive had prices not given back so much, making the rally into a peak sale. Would therefore look for the continuance of a sideways trade, but the new contract high at $5.85 is likely to be tested again.
first support: $5.55/$5.56
resistance: $5.63/$5.65
possible range: much the same or lower
May Wheat: Overall trading range is now from $5.90-$6.31. The market could begin to trade either side of $6.15, looking at it as a swing point. Very strong resistance is now at $6.31 should we go there, as it is where the 100-day moving average line meets a long down-trend line. The market may move into resistance from $6.15/$6.18, but think given the strong down-trend move preceding the report it is likely a good selling point, or profit-taking if one is long.
first support: $6.03/$6.05
resistance: $6.15/$6.18
possible range: much the same
May Beans: The market jumped to $14.56 last week, close to the contract highs at $14.60 but could not find upside follow-through and instead found a profit-taking close. The technical suggestion therefore is that prices may begin to trend sideways from the 50-day moving average of $13.98 to $14.50 but would still prefer to own this market as it continues to find rallies from weakness. Good support now moves up to $14.00, and the market seemed to solidify the $14.00-$14.50/$14.60 range as one of value, vs. the lower levels preceding it.
May Meal: Prices traded over a down-trend channel, with the rally into the $430.00 level. Would look for $395.00-$400.00 as a base of trade. The market pulled back and traded to the 100-day moving average at $411.00 which held, while overhead resistance is located at the 50-day moving average at $420.00. Would prefer to own meal again at the $411.00-$412.00 level for a further rally higher, possibly retracing its last week's higher level peak.
first support: $414.00
resistance: $419.00/$420.00
possible range: $414.00-$419.00
May Soyoil: Prices met a key support line last week at 5022c, and have rallied since. Could possibly own May soyoil against the low of 5250c, or if that gets violated certainly a 5175c-52c low. Think that prices will find a comfort zone trading range from 51c-56c, using 53c as a pivot area. Given the strong nature of this market, prefer to still own pullbacks for the long haul. Would look for soyoil to trade back over 53c and head higher.
first support: 5220c-5250c
resistance: 5330c
possible range: much the same or higher
NOVEMBER BEANS
The major direction is once again higher, with prices traveling to the downside to $11.84, before shooting sharply higher to a new contract high of $12.85. The ADX is weak at 20, and prices are not yet overbought. New lines of resistance are forming from $12.85 slanting towards $13.00, and we could be in the process of forming a wide $12.00-$13.00 trading range or higher. The markets broke down from $12.50, and now becomes the low end of a $12.50 to possible $13.00 or higher trading range. If prices break to $12.45/$12.50 and hold, would price, cover a short, or go long.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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