SPREADS
Bean futures are still mostly about volumes going to spread trade, with January open interest down 17,339 ctrs and March up 15,796 ctrs. Open interest decreased slightly in May and July indicating only a small amount of liquidation has taken place. Jan/March bean spread trades from 13 1/2c out to lows of 14 1/2c. Dec/March corn trades from 8 1/2c to 10c as futures prepare to expire in Dec today at noon. Jan/March meal trades out to $4.40 from $4.20. March wheat/corn trades from 1.51 1/2c down to 1.47 3/4c. March crush is lower trading to 99.57c/bu while oilshare firms to new highs at 35.25%.
PALM OIL
Feb. down 38 ringgits. Malaysia raised their export tax on crude palm to 5% (from zero) effective in January. This is the first time in 1 1/2 years that hey have implemented a tax on exports.
NEWS
Stocks are up 100 pts as crude oil hits $60/barrel. The US dollar trades down to 96.71 as traders unwind previous buy the US dollar/sell energies trade. Retail sales increased less than expected with a much weaker 0.5% increase, as reported by the Commerce Dept.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 13-15 higher
meal: 3.00-3.80 higher
soyoil: 30-35 higher
corn: 4 1/2-6 higher
wheat: 2 1/2-3 higher
canola: 2.80-3.00 higher
TECHNICALS
March Corn: Prices printed a new low of $3.71 this week before gapping higher in the night session. Small gaps are only there to provide support on a market setback, and if begin to close and trade under them will denote further weakness ahead. Given the fund short, however, would think that the market may have the potential to find higher ground on more short-covering and a trip up towards $3.86/$3.88.
key support is gap-fill at $3.80 1/4
resistance: $3.85/$3.86
possible range: much the same or lower
March Wheat: Prices under $5.20 held with a test of $5.16, and the chart appears ready for a test of recent highs located at $5.35/$5.37. Support once again resides at $5.22, and if we go there would probably cover something in if short. However, support for the day is actually higher than that from $5.25/$5.28.
first support: $5.28
resistance: $5.38
possible range: much the same
March Beans: Bullish activity now with prices gapping higher from $9.16 to $9.18 1/2. This small gap is also located right at the 100-day moving average of $9.19, and below the 200-day moving average of $9.22. The PM session tested $9.22 and it held for a good close. All these indicate that we could therefore see more short-covering after the open with a target high eventually at $9.35/$9.36. Gaps not filled today are bullish, even if they are small, as is gap-higher price action.
first support: $9.19/$9.22
resistance: $9.28/$9.33
possible range: much the same or lower
March Soyoil: Placed a new high for the move up at 3305c. The previous market high at 3244c now becomes support on a greater sell-off, and target highs over 33c suggest a move to 3330c-3350c.
key support: 3245c
resistance: 33c to 3315c
possible range: much the same
March Meal: Prices are sideways from current lows of $296.20 up to $306.00. The market has the potential to tack on gains via short-covering activity, and begins over prev. tops at $300.00. Could continue to straddle/strangle this market, and think it has the potential to continue to rally after the open.
first support: $301.00
resistance: $303.00
possible range: much the same
MARCH CORN
Bottom of the trading range is $3.71, and the downside momentum has once again been interrupted. The trend is fairly weak at 23 ADX as prices trade sideways from lower. There is a small bullish input that is the open gap from $3.80 1/4 -$3.80 1/2, which only serves as higher support on a gap-open day. The gap serves only as support, and was nearly filled towards the end of the session. If left unfilled, however, it does suggest that buyers will step in to take prices back towards $3.85 to $3.88. The close was near the upper end of the session, so suspect that before the day is done upper resistance levels will probably be tested. Trading range overall is now from $3.71 to $3.91/$3.95 given the lows this week.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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