SPREADS
Oct. crush trades to 92.80c/bu while oilshare declines to 34.88%. Corn spreads are slightly weaker with Dec/Dec trading from 33 1/4c out to 34 3/4c. Dec/March corn trades from 11c to 11 3/4c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 1.72c up to 1.75c. Sep/Dec meal traded from $6.30 to $6.60. Sep/Nov beans trade from 2 1/2c to 3c. Nov/Jan beans trades from 4 3/4c to 5 1/4c.
PALM OIL
October down 28 ringgits, closing 2.5% lower on concerns over a plunge in August exports. July palm oil imports by India were 824,078 mt, up 1.4% from year ago.
NEWS
Stocks are down 80 pts, with crude oil at $41.77/barrel low, and the US dollar trading down to 93.15. US productivity rose at a 7.3% rate for Q2, the largest quarterly increase since 2009. Labor costs also jumped, rising 12.2%.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 3-5 lower
meal: 1.40-1.60 lower
soyoil: 10-14 lower
corn: 2 lower
wheat: steady/firm
canola: 1.00 -1.20 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 126,000 mt of beans sold to China in 20/21
Egypt purchased 415,000 mt of Russian wheat in a tender this week.
TECHNICALS
December Corn: Attempting to form a trading range, with a gap still open from $3.42 - $4.34 3/4. Given the extent of the trade higher, would look for pullbacks to see support as the market turns sideways from lower. First support for the day is $3.34 1/2 should we go there, and think it would hold. Look to possibly test $3.40 again after the open despite a weaker start to the day. The inside day of trade does not suggest this rally is over.
first support: $3.33 1/2-$3.34 1/2
resistance: $3.39 1/2-$3.40 1/2
possible range: much the same
September Wheat: Prices begin the morning building on gains from $4.90. Would look to probably trade back over $5.00 on short-covering activity, with good support now built into the lower end of the trading range with multiple lows of $4.90 in place. If the market surpasses $5.05, there would not be much to stop a rally towards $5.15 for a $4.90-$5.20 trading range.
first support: $4.95
resistance: $5.05
possible range: much the same
November Beans: Prices remain in the same trading range, but the rally off the $8.65 level was stabilizing trade. Pullbacks in this market are still generating buying interest, so would continue to day trade this market from the long side. The market begins on the defensive, but think a sell-off towards $8.88/$8.92 will offer support. Would look for another test of the $9.00-$9.03 level again despite weakness.
first support: $8.88/$8.91
resistance: $8.98/$9.01
possible range: much the same or higher
December Meal: Overall trading range is from $286.20 ctr lows to a possible $305.00 trading range high. The market popped off the low due to short-covering, which in and of itself is not price positive. To sustain gains, funds need to cover their short and go long. However, the key reversal early this week did promote the higher trade, and the market tested the 100-day moving average at $297.00 successfully so far. Meal likes to test its highs once they have been placed. A rally through $300.00 would target the top end of the range which is $305.00.
first support: $296.00/$297.00
resistance: $299.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: The market hit a trading range high at 3182c which is stiff resistance. Would look for a sell-off towards 3080c-3090c to be good support, and since the major trend is higher would cover a short or try the long side of the market. Target high remains north of 32c.
first support: 3090c
resistance: 3140c
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER CORN
The trade higher from lower stabilizes the market and presents $3.20 as a level of support that may stay intact into harvest. Good support moves up to $3.29/$3.30 on a better pullback, and the market may once again attempt to fill in the open gap left over from July which is from $3.42 - $3.43 3/4. The gap would serve as key resistance now. If pullbacks hold for the day, would not be surprised to see an eventual trading range for August that is from $3.25/$3.28 low end to $3.45/$3.48 high end. Rule of thumb is that once old open gaps are approached, they typically fill.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is Israel’s war with Hamas, though it is American food brands that are taking it on the chin. KFC has had to close 100 outlets in Malays...
Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 April 2024 Russian analysts are beginning to worry that this season’s grain production in Russia may drop from almost 145 MMT in 2023 to 135 MMT because of the drought in Southern Federal District – the wheat belt of Russia. Russian Ministry of Agr...
