SPREADS

March crush drops back below 1.00c/bu to trade to 97.31c/bu, while oilshare trades slightly lower to 36.32%.  March/May beans trade from 12 3/4c to 13 3/4c.  July/Dec corn continues to have a small carry out to 2 1/2c.

PALM OIL

Up 74 ringgits higher, with cash up $12.50/mt.  Higher palm will support soyoil futures at the open, which in turn could bring support to beans.  India lowered its import tariffs on both crude and refined veg oils, setting the stage for further imports from both Malaysia and Indonesia.    

NEWS

Stocks have been trading higher all night, from 150 pts up to 172 pts.  Commodity prices are firm in spillover, with crude trading to higher of $61.60/barrel.  The big news breaking last night was that China loosened its bank reserve requirements to stimulate their economy, with their stocks moving higher, also peripherally supportive for bean trade.   

Funds are holding an estimated net long in soyoil of around 119,000 contracts, which should weigh on rallies of size.  Funds are probably short around 33K contracts of beans, and 85K corn.  Funds may be holding a 30K long in wheat.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 1/2 to 1 higher

meal:  steady

soyoil:  10-15 higher

corn:  1/2 higher

wheat: 1/2-1 higher

TECHNICALS

March Beans:  Market is still trading steady to higher, and has not set off a good reversal signal yet for the move upward.  Small pullbacks have been holding, which moves good support up to $9.35/$9.45 on a break.  Would look for new highs and any trade over the uptrend channel brings in more buying and a possible test of $9.70, which would find good selling, should we go there.

first support:  9.45/$9.48

resistance:  $9.58/$9.61

possible range: much the same 

March Meal:  Trading range bound from $300.00-$308.00.  The market could still find support from the $302.00 level, but we may go there again if oilshare resumes a rally.  For the day, good support is located at $302.00 and if needing to price would do so.

first support: $302.00

resistance:  $305.50

possible range: much the same

March Soyoil:  Contract high is 3552c, and the market remains in bull market territory.  The break below 35c did not complete gap-fill, and the market stopped moving lower at the 3440c level, which is now good support.  Would look for the strong possibility that we rally back over 35c to perhaps test new contract highs.

first support: 3440c

resistance:  35c/3520c

possible range: much the same

March Corn:  The breaks back towards $3.85 has now actually turned the chart sideways from slightly higher.  Could continue to own the chart against $3.85 with a close sell-stop.  If the other markets rally or sustain strength, corn can easily trend back towards $3.92, recent highs, again.

first support: $3.87

resistance: $3.89 1/2/$3.90

possible range: much the same or higher

March Wheat:  Major direction has been sideways/higher, with a test of $5.50 that held.  This does move lower support up to $5.55, and suggests that we could make a run at $5.64 1/2 again for placement of a new high.  Top end of the range is still $5.70 on a rally of size.

first support: $5.52/$5.53

resistance: $5.63/$5.65

possible range: much the same or higher

MARCH CORN

Trading range now is from $3.71-$3.92, and the market breaks and failures over $3.90 makes the price action more vulnerable to an eventual break.  Could continue to own corn along the bottom of the sideways channel outlined in blue, which is from $3.85-$3.92, but the ADX reading of 17 suggests that if one chart were to fail to the downside first, it could be this one.  For the day, the price action begins just over the 100-day moving average of $3.87, and if the other markets rally, it suggests that corn could test the high point at $3.92 again.  However, more short-covering will not be triggered until we take out and sustain a close over $3.90, as the market does not seem in a hurry to go anywhere.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America