SPREADS
Dec. crush trades down to 90c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.43%. Dec/March corn spread narrows into 8c from 9 1/4c. Dec/March wheat trades from 9 1/2c to 11c carry. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.82 1/2c to 1.79c. The Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 7 1/2c to 8 1/2c, while Nov 21/Nov 22 inverse trades down to 27 3/4c from 32 3/4c.
PALM OIL
Nov closed down 113 ringgits/mt. AmSpec Agri forecast exports over the Sep 1-10 period at 554,875 mt, well above 368,763 mt mo ago.
NEWS
Stocks are up over 100 pts with crude oil prices firmer on supply worries. Crude trades to $69.49/barrel, with the US dollar trading to 92.30.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 3-5 higher
meal: 2.30-2.60 higher
soyoil: 10-12 lower
corn: 1/2 -1 higher
wheat: steady
canola: 4.00-4.50 higher
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Major direction is sideways/lower, with $12.65 the recent downside print. The trend lower is yet to be reversed with any sign of stabilization. However, we could begin to consolidate from this level. Would look to see if the report brings an upside reaction met by fund selling. In that case, the path of least resistance remains lower and would look for a $12.45/$12.50 target low with a $12.95/$13.00 high.
first support: $12.63/$12.65
resistance: $12.80/$12.85
possible range: depends on the report
December Meal: Overall trading range appears to be from $335.00-$355.00/$360.00. Chart price action turns higher from lower, with trendline support on a break now located close by at $334.00. The chart may be preparing to base from $335.00-$340.00 in order to enter into a trading range off the lows.
first support: $338.00
resistance: $341.00/$342.00
possible range: depends on the report
December Soyoil: Prices move to new lows with a test of 56c after major support at 5650c was broken. Major direction is sideways/lower, and could see a low at 54c if prices continue to weaken. Current range is 56c-60c, and the selling has slowed a bit. IF needing to price, this is probably a good opportunity as this market always appears ready to rally back.
first support: 5550c to 56c
resistance: 5650c
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
December Corn: Major direction is lower but the market now appears to be stuck at the bottom of the decline. Target low is $4.95/$5.00, and would expect more buying would we go there. For the moment, $5.05-$5.10 looks like support, but a drive towards $5.00 will turn it into new resistance. Could be looking at a $4.95/$5.00 to $5.30 trading range. Market feels sold out here, as traders wait to see what the numbers bring.
first support: $5.07/$5.08
resistance: $5.15/$5.17
possible range: depends on the report
December Wheat: Prices trades under $7.00 but the lack of downside follow-through again becomes an issue, even with new lows. Target low is still $6.75/$6.80 on a further drop. We did see new lows this Am at $6.88 3/4, but curiously are heading back towards $7.00 again. Weaker markets typically do not bounce much. Trade back over $7.00 invites more short-covering.
first support: $6.85/$6.88
resistance: $6.95/$6.98
possible range: depends on the report.
DECEMBER WHEAT
Prices are trending lower as the head and shoulders top, slow to develop, finally fulfills its mission lower. The first target low is $6.75 as prices dive under the 100-day moving average of $7.01. The neckline of the topping formation is at $7.20-$7.25, and trade from $7.00 - $7.50 flipped to the downside of $7.00 is $6.50. Before we get there, would look for $6.75 to be interim support. Path of least resistance is lower, and rallies towards $7.00 will likely find selling interest.
TAGS – Feed Grains, North America
