SPREADS

Oct. crush to 94.02c/bu while oilshare is at 35.20%.  Sep/Dec corn trades from a low of 13c into 11 1/2c on heavy volume.    Dec/Dec corn trades from 38 3/4c from 40c carry.  Sep/Nov beans trade from 1 3/4c out to 2 1/2c.  Sep /Dec wheat trades from 7 3/4c out to 8c. 

PALM OIL

October closed down 47 ringgits.   Palm oil inventories fell to 3-year lows in July as production declined due to labor shortages and heavy rains, while exports rose amid easing coronavirus related curbs. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board forecast end of July stockpiles declining 10.55% vs. mo ago to 1.7 mmt, while output fell 4.14% to 1.81 mmt.   

NEWS

Stocks are up 92 pts. while crude oil trades firmer to $41.96/barrel.  The US dollar trades to 93.69 while gold prices are at $2028.30/oz.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: 1/2-1 lower

meal:  steady

soyoil:  10-14 lower

corn:  steady/firm

wheat:  1 1/2-2 lower

canola:  1.90-2.00 lower

BUSINESS

USDA reports 264,000 mt of beans received for delivery to China in 2020/21

USDA reports 111,000 mt of beans for delivery to unknown for 20/21

USDA reports 324,000 mt of beans for delivery to China for 20/21 

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Major direction is sideways and technically the close under $8.80 is triggering technical selling to the bottom of the market which is $8.61-$8.65.  Although prices could trend down towards $8.59-$8.61, would cover a short or try the long side of the market, as prices have been a consistent $8.60-$9.00 trade.

key support: $8.61/$8.62

resistance:  $8.72/$8.73

possible range: much the same

December Meal:  The main direction is lower, and prices posted a new ctr low at $286.20.  Target lows below this level are close by at $284.50 should we go there.  New lows beget new lows, and there is not yet a reversal signal from the bottom.  However, the market is deeply oversold which could trigger light short-covering for the day.  

first support: $285.00-$286.00

resistance:  $290.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  The overall trend is higher, and the market has a setback to test very important technical support from 3045c- 3050c.  This is where trendline support is located along with the 200-day moving average of 3050c.  On a weaker start, if prices should take the 200-day moving average could be short for a trip down towards 30c, and a 30c-32c trading range set-up.  However, with the major trend higher, would prefer to own soyoil at 3050c for a move back over 31c again.

key support: 3050c

resistance:  31c

possible range: much the same 

December Corn:  Overall direction is lower, and the market appears to have found stabilization at the $3.20 level.  This market is also deeply oversold, and therefore would look for price congestion still from $3.20-$3.25.  Upper resistance is also located at $3.26 - $3.28, and the market would need a good reason to head over this level.  

first support: $3.19 1/2-$3.20

resistance:  $3.24

possible range: much the same

September Wheat: Major direction is lower, and the market is posting an inside day of trade so far.  The low is $4.90 and would look for a test of $4.98/$5.02 again on short-covering.  OVerall trading range is now from $4.90-$5.30 given the recent price action, but would adjust lower.

first support: $4.88-$4.92

resistance:  $4.98/$5.02

possible range: much the same

NOVEMBER BEANS

Overall trading range is from $8.60-$9.00.  The close under $8.80 triggered the selling down towards $8.60, but would expect to find support at this level.  New lows are in place this morning, but the ADX trend is still a fairly weak one at 14.  The move down to $8.65 lowers the top end of the range down to $8.90-$9.00 once again, which is slightly under the $9.00-$9.10 level.  Could also straddle or strangle $8.60-$9.00 as well.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America