SPREADS
Jan oilshare trades to 32.42% while crush trades down to 99.40c/bu. Jan/March beans trades from 1/2c to 1c carry, while Dec/March meal trades up to $4.00 from $3.70. Dec/March corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 9c, while Dec/March wheat trades from 9 3/4c into 7 1/4c. March wheat /corn trades from 1.73c down to 1.66c. Dec /Dec corn inverse trades up to 15 1/2c from 10 3/4c. For the most part, nearby bean bull spreads are firm despite weaker flat price.
PALM OIL
Feb. down 27 ringgits. Cash offers were down $2.50/mt. SGS forecast Malaysian Palm oil exports for Nov at 1.390 mmt, do2n 19% from Oct. at 1.714 mmt.
NEWS
Stocks are down 130 pts. while the US dollar trades down to new lows at 91.55. Crude trades up to $45.80/barrel. China's National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing report stated that in November, factory production rose to 54.7 from October's 53.9. The measure of new exports rose to 51.5 from the prev. month at 51.0.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 8-10 lower
meal: 2.80-3.20 lower
soyoil: 55-65 lower
corn: 1/2-1 lower
wheat: 5-7 lower
canola: 3.90-4.00 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 140,000 mt of corn sold to unknown for 20/21
USDA reports 204,000 mt of corn received for delivery in 20/21
TECHNICALS
March Corn: Prices hit a new contract high in the PM session at $4.39 1/2. Lower support is located from $4.25/$4.28, and the presence of a new contract high opens the door to more of the same. Target high is now $4.40-$4.50, and would expect if one market turns green this would be it. First support moves up to $4.30-$4.31.
first support: $4.29/$4.30
resistance: $4.38/$4.40
possible range: much the same
March Wheat: The major trend is sideways, as prices remain trapped from $5.90- $6.30. However, the close under $6.00 is negative, and rallies continue to be selling opportunities which lead to failure when strength occurs. Could sell the market against $6.10 for an eventual target low under $5.90 at $5.80-$5.85.
first support: $5.95
resistance: $6.05
possible range: much the same or lower
Jan Beans: Overall trading range is higher with a strong uptrend. However, the chart now features multiple tops at $12.00 which have held a rally in check. The appearance of at least four tops combined with a weaker start increases the chance for a larger break, which would also help to alleviate overbot extremes which still exist. The chart for the first time now appears to offer up the better chance for a larger break which would extend the downside of the chart from $11.80 down towards $11.65 to $11.70.
first support: $11.77-$11.80
resistance: $11.85/$11.88
possible range: $11.77-$11.85/$11.88
Jan Meal: The overall trading range is from $385.00-contract highs of $401.30. The low of the session at $393.10 is right on trendline support. If prices can hold the open at $393.00 would be critical for maintaining a higher bias. However, starting right on trendline support shows more technical weakness, and therefore think we could back and fill down to the lower end of this range at $386.00. Look for the open to show us whether we head lower or hold.
key support: $393.00
resistance: $396.00
possible range: much the same or lower
Jan Soyoil: Trading range is from 37c-39c, and the market has double highs at 3865c. Prices traded down to 3766c, which is key support. Would look for prices to head lower still, and eventually test 37c again. If we go there, would cover a short and try the long side of the market.
MARCH CORN
March corn places a new contract high turning higher from lower, and over recent tops at $4.35 3/4. New highs beget new highs, and the market can still target $4.50. The trend is slightly strong with an ADX of 31 but is well balanced being neither overbought nor oversold which will allow prices to continue to rally. Prices may begin weaker but would look for another test of the contract high again, and for a pullback towards $4.28/$4.30 to offer a place to cover a short or try the long side of the market.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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