World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Marching the Numbers

SPREADS

Sep. crush trades up to 77c/bu while oilshare values are weaker at 32.19%.   Spreads are slightly wider with Sep/Dec. corn trading out to 9 3/4c from 8 3/4c.  Sep wheat/corn trades from 1.48 1/2c to 1.50c. August / Nov beans trades firmer into 6 1/2c from 8c.  Sep/Dec meal trades into $5.30 from $5.80.  

PALM OIL

Sep. down 32 ringgits.  Malaysia is looking to strengthen diplomatic ties with India in order to create a win-win situation with its largest buyers, according to the Plantation Industries and Commodities ministry.  

NEWS

Stocks are 200 pts lower with crude trading at $40/barrel, and the US dollar firmer at 97.15.

CALLS

Calls today are lower across the board:

beans: 4-6 lower

meal:   .80-.90 lower

soyoil:  25-30 lower

corn:   4-6 lower

wheat:  1 lower

canola:  mixed

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Path of least resistance is higher and prices begin the day with a test of $9.00.  It is not unusual for prices to pullback and test a benchmark once prices have moved to the upside.  Would look for a pullback towards better support from $8.90-$8.95 as prices carve out a higher trading range than before the report.   The rally is taking a time-out, but may not be finished.

first support: $8.98/$9.01

resistance:  $9.05/$9.08

possible range: much the same or lower

December Meal:  Prices traded into the 200-day moving average of $308.00 but could not drive beyond it.   Look for price congestion on back and fill towards $300.00, but that level will offer up support.  First support today is $303.00 which may hold a further decline.

first support: $303.00

resistance:  $306.00

possible range: much the same or lower

December Soyoil:  Prices could work between 2880c-2920c in sideways trade.     Prices begin on the defensive and a break of the 20-day moving average of 2880c will promote a larger pullback with trade back towards 2850c.  Trading range in the big picture is now from 28c-2950c.

key support:  2880c

resistance:  2915c

possible range: much the same or lower

December Corn:  The trading range has moved higher and double highs of $3.63 with a line of resistance down towards $3.58 promotes a deeper decline.  Would look for the lower end of this trading range to have moved up to $3.30 /$3.35, and think a pullback towards $3.45/$3.48 finds better support as prices begin a congestion phase.    

first support: $3.47/$3.48

resistance:   $3.55/$3.56

possible range: much the same

December Wheat:  Overall trading range could be from $4.80-$5.15.  For the moment prices are congesting from $4.95-$5.05, and trade over $5.08 will trigger a rally towards $5.18.  If prices hold $5.00 at the open would look for some short-covering to take us back towards the middle of this range.

first support: $4.96

resistance:  $5.05/$5.06 

possible range: much the same or higher

DECEMBER SOYOIL

Overall trading range outlined in red is from 28c-2950c.  A small gap still remains open above the market at 2964c.  Strong support is located at 2880c where trendline and the 20 day moving average meet.  Therefore, a break of this line opens the door for a sell-off towards better support at 2830c-2840c.  In order to break-out to the upside, this chart needs to find prices closing the open gap left from March which will allow for a test of 30c.  For now, could straddle/strangle the 28c-2950c trading range, allowing for a possible upside exit and an eventual 28c-30c trade or higher.

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