SPREADS

July crush trades to 52c/bu while oilshare sits at 38.31%.  Nov/Jul bean inverse continues to weaken, trading down to 1.75 1/2c from 1.82 1/4c, while May/July trades from 8 1/4c to 7 1/4c.  JulyDec meal inverse trades down to $28.50 from $30.50.  May/July corn inverse trades to 15 1/4c from 15 3/4c, while July/Dec trades 71c to 68 1/2c.  May/July soyoil trades from 2.56 down to 2.17.   July wheat/corn trades from 75 3/4c to 81c.  

PALM OIL

June palm oil closed down 173 ringgits/mt lower, ending at 3,574. 

NEWS

Crude oil continues to congest around the $60/barrel level, trading up to $62.27/barrel today.  The US dollar continues to firm, trading up to 93.24.  Stocks are off 35 pts. 

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 7-9 lower

meal:  80-1.00 higher

soyoil:  55-65 lower

corn:  1 1/2-2 1/2 lower

wheat:  4-6 lower

canola:  10.00-12.00 lower

BUSINESS

USDA reports 100,800 mt of corn sold to unknown for 20/21

TECHNICALS

May Corn:  Prices remain tightly locked from $5.40-$5.55/$5.58.  For today, the 50-day moving average is $5.42, and would look to probably go there on neighboring weakness.   Long term trendline support is located at $5.37.  Would look for prices to head lower, but think that $5.37/$5.40 is very strong support, and could hold for a return trip higher.  The market has lost its uptrend and the ADX is weak at 17.  If short, would scale down price towards $5.37 should we go there, and wait to see if prices can violate this very strong area of support.

first support: $5.42

resistance:  $5.46/$5.48

possible range: much the same

May Wheat:  Prices are sideways/lower, with prices bouncing into key resistance at $6.16.  This level has been a top and a bottom in the market.    Would look for the $6.16 /$6.18 level to be resistance in a market where the lows still may not be posted.   Bottom target low for the day is $6.07.

trendline low:  $6.06/$6.07

resistance:  $6.16/$6.18

possible range: much the same

May Beans:  Prices are trending lower, leaking to the downside.  Key resistance has now moved down to $14.00 as the market moves under the 50-day moving average of $13.93.  Prices closed on a weak note, so would look to target $13.80, which feel is good support and values for now.   The lack of export activity combined with higher acreage has caused the market to ratchet the trading range down by 15-20c.

key support: $13.80

resistance:  $13.93/$13.95

possible range: much the same

May Soyoil:  Prices are in a 52c-54c trading range, and the market gave up all its gains yesterday to test 52c again.  Would look for sell-stops under 52c to take prices down to 5175c, but should we go there think as a 38% Fib retracement it offers up an opportunity to price, get long, or cover a short.  A top would have to come from a settlement under 50c.

key support:  5175-52c

resistance:  5280c/5290c

possible range: 5175c-5260c or higher

May Meal:  Prices congesting in a down-trend channel, but the momentum downward has slowed.    On an open under $400.00, would look for prices to perhaps slide back to test $395.00, with the bottom of channel still waiting to be tested at $389.00.  Any move over the top of channel at $405.00 confirms a market base, which may be what meal is doing presently.

first support: $396.00

resistance:  $402.00

possible range: much the same 

DECEMBER CORN

The market price action is now sideways/lower, with prices posting an outside day of trade Monday with a penetration of the 50 day moving average of $4.63.  The trade has been a $4.60 - $4.85 trading range, and prices are now looking at the likelihood of trending lower courtesy of weighty price action.  Target low is now $4.55 if needing to price, which is both major trendline support and double lows posted last Feb.  Look for prices to continue to find some follow-through selling based on the negative chart pattern and prices closing on the lows.  Could become a $4.55-$4.75 trading range.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America