SPREADS
October crush trades to 1.03c/bu while oilshare trades to 33 percent. Dec/March corn narrows into 12 1/2c from 13 1/4c, while Dec 19/Dec 20 carry is at 33c from 30 3/4c. Sep/Dec meal trades out to $5.50 from $5.30, while Dec/March trades to $4.80 from $5.00. Dec wheat/corn corrects a bit trading from 1.08 1/4c down to 1.01 1/4c.
PALM OIL
Sep closed down 4 ringgits. SGS forecast Malaysian palm oil product exports for the first half of August at 752,470 mt, up 14.3 percent vs. first half July.
NEWS
The Dow is up 156 pts this morning as it stays afloat over the 25,000 pt level. The US dollar is weaker at 97.82 while crude sits at $53.77/barrel. For the day, weaker energies will weigh on soyoil futures, which have had a very good rally as of late.
REPORTS
Export sales:
beans: 18/19 minus 109,000 and 19/20 net 817,400 (vs. an expected 150-700 in line )
meal: 18/19 net 130,100 tmt and 19/20 net 144,200 tmt (vs. an expected 175-400)
soyoil: 18/19 net 1,400 tmt (vs. an expected 5-30 low end)
corn: 18/19 net 56,100 tmt and 19/20 net 307,600 tmt (vs. an expected 200-700 poor)
wheat: 19/20 net 462,200 and 20/21 net 12,300 tmt (vs. an expected 200-500 good)
Export sales were good for wheat and meal, but there was not much reaction to the numbers post release.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 2 1/2-3 higher
meal: 20-30 lower
soyoil: 10-15 lower
corn: 3 higher
wheat: 1/2-1 lower
canola: .30-.50 higher
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Wide trading range from $8.60-$9.00, using $9.75 as a pivot point. The market was able to bounce off the lows of $8.65, and for now the path of least resistance remains higher. Trendline support for the day begins at the trading range low of $8.78, and a break of $8.75 post open would trigger more selling and a slide back towards $8.65. Look to probably remain within these boundaries as the chart sets up sideways trade and could straddle/strangle this level.
first support: $8.76/$8.77
resistance: $8.83/$8.84
possible range: much the same or higher
Dec Meal: Prices will open just under $300.00 today, and support is around the corner at $298.00. Overall this trading range has been forming, which includes a $295.00 low and a $305.00 trading range high. We begin closer to trendline support at $298.00, but it will be vital to hold it if a meal bull.
visual trendline support: $298.00
resistance: $302.00
possible range: much the same
Dec Soyoil: Prices are in a congestive phase after the break-out to the upside with a new trading range high at 3025c. For the day, would look for the market to test its lower support level at 2930c, having already taken out the 200-day moving average of 2945c. Overall trading range appears to be from 2850c to 3025c.
First support: 2930c
resistance: 2970c
possible range: much the same or lower
Dec Corn: Major direction is lower with a trade to $3.70, and at some point we may go back and test it again. The market may eventually move into a $3.65/$3.85 trading range. For the moment, there is not yet a confirmed bottom and rallies may result in failure if traders want to begin to get short. Better confirmation of a trading range would be to fill the overhead gap from $3.88/$3.92, with a close over.
first support: $3.69/$3.71
resistance: $3.75
possible range: much the same or higher
Dec Wheat: Prices are caught between $4.70-$4.85, and the chart suggests that we could test $4.70 once again. Major direction is lower.
first support: $4.69/$4.71
resistance: $4.80
possible range: much the same
NOVEMBER BEANS
Overall trading range is from the hard break on August 5 to $8.54 1/2, which was quickly rejected with better lows forming at $8.65. This continues to be where we are, and the ability of the market to come back from those losses suggests that price action remain in a consolidation phase for now.
If short, the best reward would be to push back under $8.75, which would then open the door to more selling and a test of recent lows. Overall trading range remains $8.65-$8.99 and could straddle/strangle this range as we work sideways post report. Top of the trading range on a very good rally crosses at the 100-day moving average of $8.98 with good resistance from $8.95-$8.99 as a rally top.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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