SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 1.22c/bu while oilshare trades at 47.24%.   Dec/March corn trades 8 1/4c to 8 1/2c, Dec 21/22 inverse trades down to 6c from 9 1/4c.  Nov/Jan bean carry trades from 9 3/4c to 10 1/4c while the Nov 21/22 inverse falls to 2 3/4c from 7 3/4c.  Nov/March beans traded out to a new low at 18c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 2.12 1/4 from 2.16c.  Dec/March wheat trades from 10c to 11 1/2c.

PALM OIL

November RBD palm oil and olein cash offers on Monday traded up $10/mt higher ending at $1.197.50/mt and $1,200.00 /mt, respectively.  

NEWS

Stocks are down 65 pts with crude oil weaker to $75.32/barrel, and the US dollar trading to 93.74.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  8-10 lower

meal:  1.20-1.60 lower

soyoil:  18-30 lower

corn:  2-3 lower

wheat: 1-2 higher

canola:  .90-1.00 higher

DELIVERIES

Soyoil:  7

BUSINESS

USDA reports 426,800 mt of corn sold to Mexico for 21/22

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Major direction is sideways/lower as prices break down under the summer low of $12.40.  There is no chart stability for now, and new lows beget new lows.  Resistance for the day moves down to $12.45/$12.50.   Target lows are $12.20/$12.25.  Until there is a sign that the chart will stabilize with a reversal low of some sort, rallies may continue to invite selling.

first support:  $12.28/$12.32

resistance:  $12.40/$12.45

possible range: much the same 

December Meal:  Prices reached a new low for the move down at $325.80, which lowers technical resistance down to $335.00/$338.00.  Target low is now $320.00, and the break under the congestion phase from $335.00-$345.00 now becomes a ledge of resistance on a rally.   Charts remain vulnerable to further downside as the downtrend strengthens with an ADX of 23, reinforcing selling activity.

first support:  $323.00-$325.00

resistance:  327.00-$329.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  Prices are still at the upper portion of a 55c-60c trading range, continuing to pivot around 58c.  Major support is 5725c to 5750c, but prices are not even close.  The chart has a line of support at 5725c, and the chart did not even approach it on weakness.  Would look for soyoil to test 59c to 60c at some point and would cover shorts when given the chance.

first support: 5750c/5780c

resistance:  5850c/59c

possible range: 58c-59c

December Corn:  Despite weakness elsewhere prices remain in an uptrend channel trading from the USDA report range of $5.27 - $5.48.  Prices choose to congest now around the middle of this range.  The ADX is fairly weak, and very strong resistance is located at $5.48 which is where the 100-day ma and the top of the channel meet.  That is enough to turn prices back unless there is a very good reason to violate it with trade over.  Look for a continuation of sideways trade with boundaries becoming more defined.

first support: $5.32

resistance:  $5.42/$5.44

possible range:  $5.33-$5.43 

December Wheat:  Very constructive price action as the trading range post report is bumped higher, with significant report building at $7.00 vs. $6.80 before.  Pullbacks continue to see support which is friendly, and the price action has not strayed too far from the top trade of $7.59.  Typically, this suggests we make a run at new highs after the open, and think we do that perhaps taking corn along for the ride and stabilizing beans a bit.

first support: $7.43/$7.45

resistance:  $7.55/$7.63

possible range: much the same

NOVEMBER BEANS

Path of least resistance is now lower, as price breaks below the summer lows of $12.40.  New lows beget new lows, and the chart is now breaking down with a new low overnight under $12.40.  Target low is now $12.25/$12.30 given the break of $12.40.  Resistance now moves down to $12.60/$12.65 as the chart attempts to find an interim low from which to rally from.

TAGS – Feed Grains, North America