SPREADS

March crush trades to 1.00c/bu while oilshare is lower, trading down to 35.22%.  July/Nov beans trade out to 5 1/2c from 5c, while March/May trades from 13c to 13 1/4c.  March/May meal widens out to $4.60 from $4.50.  March wheat /corn strengthens to 1.90 1/2c from 1.87 3/4c.  March/May wheat trades from 3/4c to 1 1/4c.  

PALM OIL

Down 43 ringgits in April.  Malaysia has raised its export tax for crude palm oil to 6% for Feb, as announced by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.  Futures fell 1.5% today, the worst weekly decline in more than 11 years, dragged down by India's import restrictions on the refined products and the export tax hike.  

NEWS

Stocks are higher up 82 pts with crude oil trading to $59.98/barrel.  The US dollar trades to 97.26.  US industrial production decreased by 0.3% in Dec from the prior month, as reported by the Federal Reserve. 

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 1 lower

meal:  steady

soyoil:  10-15 lower

corn:  2 higher

wheat:  1 higher

canola: 1.00 lower

TECHNICALS

March Corn:  Overall trend is sideways though breaks seem to occur easier than rallies, which leaves the door open to a downside exit from a current $3.71-$3.91 range.  Trendline support today crosses at $3.74 1/2 should we go there, and the sharp break also could see retracement back towards $3.80/$3.81.  Would look for short-covering to dominate trade with a better bounce towards $3.80 in all likelihood.

first support: $3.77

resistance: $3.80/$3.81

possible range; much the same or lower

March Wheat:  The recent high has been $5.78 3/4, and the chart is now in a congestion phase.  The trend remains firm with an ADX reading at 39, but that trend is also weakening a bit which could suggest we see more profit-taking for the day despite early strength.  Target highs over $5.80 suggest a move to $5.90/$5.95.  

first support: $5.63

resistance: $5.73

possible range; much the same

March Beans:  Overall trading range is from $9.15-$9.60, and the market broke through its key pivot level of $9.33 which triggered a quick move down to the 200 day moving average of $9.21.  We open on $9.21, and if it holds think the market will find stability and likely a move back towards $9.30/$9.35, which could become a pivot level in a wide trading range.  Violation of $9.21 opens the door to the bottom of the range at $9.15.

key support: $9.20/$9.21

resistance:  $9.29/$9.31

possible range: much the same or lower

March Meal:  Major trend is sideways from $295.00 -$308.00.  Resistance is still stronger than support, so the market could slip down to the lower levels of recent trade.  However, in the big picture still think that if needing to price the $295.00-$300.00 is a good starting point.

first support: $298.00

resistance: $302.00

possible range: much the same

March Soyoil:  A market top is now guiding price action which has been lower day to day.  The target low for the move down is 3250c, where prices could begin to see some traction and support.  If beans turn higher from $9.21, soyoil may follow as well and trade back over 33c.  If short Soyoil, would probably opt to cover from 3280-33c, and more of it should we go to 3250c.  

key support: 3250c

first support: 3270c-3280c

resistance: 3305c

possible range: 3270c-3305c or lower

MARCH WHEAT

Major trend is higher with prices setting a new high at $5.78 3/4.  The overall trading range is from $5.45 up to a suggested $5.80 or higher.  Pullbacks are still seeing support but would start to take a profit if we trade up towards the upper trendline resistance level, which does cross at $5.80 today.  Could go short this market, but would only do so at major visual trendline resistance levels, using tight buy-stops.  The market has not yet given a better signal of a reversal, and therefore the move up may not be done.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America