SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 81.84c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.15%. Sep/Dec corn widens out to new lows at 11c from 10 1/2c. August/Nov beans trades down to 6c inverse from recent highs at 11c. Sep/Nov beans trades to a 1 1/2c carry from 3/4c. The Sep wheat/corn spread trades from 2.15 1/2c down to 2.09 3/4c. Sep/Dec meal trades from $5.40 to $5.80.
PALM OIL
Oct. up 33 ringgits. Indonesia's ambitious biodiesel plans come back on track which is net positive for palm.
NEWS
Stocks are down 300 pts as the economy continues to struggle in lieu of Covid cases. Crude oil slides back to $40.16/barrel while the US dollar weakens to 93.27.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2-3 lower
meal: 1.20-1.50 lower
soyoil: 20-25 higher
corn: steady
wheat: 2 1/2-3 lower
canola: .30 -.50 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 130,000 mt of corn sold to unknown for 20/21
USDA reports 1,937,000 mt of corn sold to China for 20/21
TECHNICALS
December Corn: Major direction is lower and rallies will be sold. Will be interesting to see if the announcements this morning invite any short-covering activity. The low is now $3.26 and if prices can firm back over $3.30 would prompt short-covering to $3.32/$3.33. Good rallies will still be used as a sale point.
first support: $3.25 1/2-$3.26 1/2
resistance: $3.29/$3.31
possible range: much the same or higher
September Wheat: Prices are rangebound with a test close to the 100-day moving average of $5.23. The market broke again today after approaching $5.35, but would look for prices to perhaps make another run at $5.35 again if firmer values are seen after the open. The key to lower prices would have to come from a break of $5.20.
key support: $5.23
first support: $5.26
resistance: $5.33/$5.36
possible range: $5.26-$5.36 or lower
November Beans: Futures hit the lower end of its trading range. Funds are long and pullbacks towards lower support should be owned. The market settled mid-range, and would not be surprised to see $8.80 hold. Lower support on a break of $8.80 finds values back at $8.71 again.
first support: $8.79-$8.81
resistance: $8.89/$8.91
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Prices are rangebound from $290.00-$308.00 and working towards the lower end of its range. On a weaker note would expect to see a test of $293.00 which would be a buying opportunity given the recent jump back to $303.00.
first support: $292.50/$293.00
resistance: $296.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Price action patterns remain the same, which is to post a new high typically followed by a 100-pts break. Prices have double highs from 3105/3106c. Expect this level to be tested if prices can take out the 200-day moving average of 3050c. Think that pullbacks will hold for a trade above 3050c
first support: 30c
resistance: 3050c
possible range: much the same or higher
NOVEMBER BEANS
Trading range is from $8.70-$9.12. The market is therefore operating at the lower end of recent price action. Trade below $8.83 resulted in a test of $8.80, which could hold for the day. Trade under this level opens the door for prices to setback and target $8.68/$8.71, where trendline support and the 100-day moving average meet. IF short and we go there, would cover a short and try the long side of the market.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America