SPREADS

March crush is firmer this morning trade to 1.01c/bu while oilshare is a steady trade at 36.49%.  Wheat spreads are firming with March/May trading into 2 1/2c from 3c.  March wheat/corn trades up to 1.80 3/4c from 1.77c as wheat trades to new market highs for the move up.  March/May corn remains a wider 6 1/2c to 6 3/4c trade.

PALM OIL

March up 26 ringgits.  Prices recouped early losses gaining for a fourth weekly session on bulls Palm Oil Board data showing lower stockpiles and higher than expected exports in Dec.  Malaysian Palm OIl Board pegged Dec. 2019 palm oil production at 1.333 mmt, slightly below the expected 1.338 mmt, and down from 1.538 mmt in Nov.  Ending stocks in Dec. 2019 totaled 2.007 mln mt, below the expected 2.064 mmt, and vs. 2.255 mmt in Nov.  

NEWS

Stocks are up 50 pts. after unemployment figures hovered at a 50-year low in Dec.  The latest data showed that 145,000 jobs were added in Dec, with unemployment remaining at 3.5%.  

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans:  mixed

meal:  .20-.60 higher

soyoil:  3-5 higher

corn:  steady / higher

wheat:  1/2 -1 higher

canola:  steady

TECHNICALS

March Beans: Price action is not convincing now, as choppy trade continues into the report.  The trading range is becoming a well-defined $9.35 - $9.55 trade, and would not be surprised to see prices testing $9.35/$9.38 at some point before the report.  If the market violates $9.33, could sell for a trade lower down towards $9.20/$9.25 where stronger moving averages sit.  

key support: $9.33

trendline resistance: $9.58

possible range: depends on report.  Trade over $9.60 will trigger a new leg higher

March Meal:  Prices still maintain a $295.00-$310.00 trading range.  However, the market has been prone to making new lows while overall rallies continue to fail.  If needing to price something, the $295.00-$298.00 level is a good place to start.

key support: $298.00

resistance:  $303.00

possible range: depends on the report

March Soyoil:  Very strong price activity with congestion trade from 3440c - 35c.  The chart is beginning to build in a bit of resistance with three lower highs, which could argue for a potential break.  Since the level of support is very well defined with multiple lows at 3438c, any break of this level would create a temporary top and result in a trade back towards 3350c.  For now, could own against 3440c but would need a tight sell-stop in place.

key support: 3440c

resistance:  3490c

possible range: depends on the report 

March Wheat:  Strong price action but nearing a key resistance level of $5.70.  If long, would probably take something off the table and keep the rest in case the market wants to clear this level.  The key lower support level moves up from $5.25 to $5.40 given the current market up move.

key support: $5.40

resistance: $5.65/$5.70

possible range: depends on the report

March Corn:  Price action is still a bit negative with small rallies continuing to fail.  The rally into $3.87 failed to generate a higher trade, making the chart more vulnerable to lower price action, and a break towards $3.80, the middle of the $3.71-$3.91 trading range.

first support: $3.82

resistance:  $3.86

possible range; depends on the report

MARCH BEANS

Trading range is from $9.15-$9.61, with prices still operating in the upper portion of recent activity from $9.35-$9.60.  Major trendline resistance crosses at $9.58, and the momentum higher is stalling.  The ADX trend is weak at 18 (lack of trend as prices move sideways), so the market needs a break-out over $9.60 to regain a rally stance.  The 100-day moving average is located at $9.25 with the 200-day at $9.21 should we encounter a hard break after the report.  Prices have been trendline higher from the "v" shaped formation with lows at $8.83, and trade over $9.60 would take prices towards $9.70, the highs placed last October.  If long, may want to opt out of a few and have sell-stops located just below $9.33 in case funds decide to sell post data.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America