SPREADS
Dec crush trades to 1.21c/bu while oilshare trades up to 31.0%. Spreads are weaker with Dec/Dec corn trading down to 11 1/4c inverse from a morning high of 19 3/4c, while Dec/March trades out to a 3 1/2c carry for the first time since early October. Jan/March bean inverse trades down to 11 1/2c from 13c, and from report highs of 29c. Dec/March meal inverse is weaker but maintains a firm $19.10 to $17.10 trading range so far. Dec wheat/corn trades from 2.01 1/4c to 2.06 3/4c.
PALM OIL
Holiday
NEWS
The Dow was off 100 pts but has traded both sides into the morning hour. Crude is trading at $35.36/barrel on continuing demand concerns via Covid-19. Latest economic reports show that the economy grew at a 33.1% annual rate in the July/Sep quarter, which is by far the largest quarterly gain on record, after rebounding from an epic plunge. However, the economy is slowing once again and facing new threats as lockdowns take place. The unemployment rate is still at 7.9%, down from 14.7% at the start of the pandemic.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 3-5 lower
meal: 2.20-2.50 lower
soyoil: 25-30 lower
corn: 4-5 lower
wheat: 5-6 lower
canola: 1.10-1.20 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 140,000 mt of corn sold to unknown for 20/21
USDA reports 1,432,550 mt of corn sold to Mexico
TECHNICALS
December Corn: The market took out major support at $4.00 and is now looking to test key support from $3.89-$3.91. Since the uptrend is still intact, could cover a short or try the long side of the market should we go there. Would look for a possible $3.90-$4.05/$4.10 trading range to develop.
key support: $3.91
resistance: $3.95/$3.98
possible range: much the same
December Wheat: Prices are now breaking the $6.00 level, and could promote a down-turn towards $5.87 which would be a place to cover or try the long side of the market. Would look for the possibility of a $5.90-$6.15 trading range.
key support: $5.95
resistance: $6.05/$6.08
possible range: much the same or lower
January Beans: Prices are trading towards key support at $10.45/$10.48 but are likely to hold this level and regroup. If the market were to take out $10.45, the next best level of support would be $10.35.
key support: $10.45
resistance: $10.55/$10.63
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Key support is $370.00, and if we go under this level would trigger sell-stops given the triple lows here. Given meal strength, would continue to price at this level down to $370.00, as prices may continue to drive into a $370.00-$392.00 trading range.
key support: $370.00
first support: $372.00
resistance: $375.00
possible range: $372.00-$376.00
December Soyoil: Key support is 33c, and a violation of this level opens the door to a fall towards 3270c, which is a place to cover a short or to own the market. This market maintains a 32c-35c sideways trade.
key support: 3270c
first support: 33c
resistance: 3360c
possible range: 3290c-3340c
JANUARY BEANS
The overall direction has been higher, but the pullback from contract highs of $10.88 1/2 imply that this market is now attempting to find a value low. Trendline support crosses today from $10.45-$10.48, so any violation of the bottom blue line will be problematic for the bull, opening the door to a larger pullback towards $10.35. The uptrend remains intact with an ADX still strong at 44, but the downturn has weakened it a bit. The break, however, has corrected overbought extremes which may make the market more buy-able again. Would look for a likely $10.45-$10.85 trading range to develop.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America