World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Pullback Continues

SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 1.21c/bu while oilshare trades up to 31.0%.  Spreads are weaker with Dec/Dec corn trading down to 11 1/4c inverse from a morning high of 19 3/4c, while Dec/March trades out to a 3 1/2c carry for the first time since early October.  Jan/March bean inverse trades down to 11 1/2c from 13c, and from report highs of 29c.  Dec/March meal inverse is weaker but maintains a firm $19.10 to $17.10 trading range so far.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 2.01 1/4c to 2.06 3/4c. 

PALM OIL

Holiday

NEWS

The Dow was off 100 pts but has traded both sides into the morning hour.  Crude is trading at $35.36/barrel on continuing demand concerns via Covid-19.  Latest economic reports show that the economy grew at a 33.1% annual rate in the July/Sep quarter, which is by far the largest quarterly gain on record, after rebounding from an epic plunge.  However, the economy is slowing once again and facing new threats as lockdowns take place.  The unemployment rate is still at 7.9%, down from 14.7% at the start of the pandemic.

CALLS

Calls today are as follows:

beans: 3-5 lower

meal:  2.20-2.50 lower

soyoil:  25-30 lower

corn:  4-5 lower

wheat:  5-6 lower

canola:  1.10-1.20 lower

BUSINESS

USDA reports 140,000 mt of corn sold to unknown for 20/21

USDA reports 1,432,550 mt of corn sold to Mexico

TECHNICALS

December Corn:  The market took out major support at $4.00 and is now looking to test key support from $3.89-$3.91.  Since the uptrend is still intact, could cover a short or try the long side of the market should we go there.   Would look for a possible $3.90-$4.05/$4.10 trading range to develop.

key support: $3.91

resistance:  $3.95/$3.98

possible range: much the same

December Wheat:  Prices are now breaking the $6.00 level, and could promote a down-turn towards $5.87 which would be a place to cover or try the long side of the market.  Would look for the possibility of a $5.90-$6.15 trading range.

key support: $5.95

resistance: $6.05/$6.08

possible range: much the same or lower

January Beans:  Prices are trading towards key support at $10.45/$10.48 but are likely to hold this level and regroup.  If the market were to take out $10.45, the next best level of support would be $10.35.  

key support: $10.45

resistance: $10.55/$10.63

possible range: much the same

December Meal: Key support is $370.00, and if we go under this level would trigger sell-stops given the triple lows here.  Given meal strength, would continue to price at this level down to $370.00, as prices may continue to drive into a $370.00-$392.00 trading range.

key support: $370.00

first support: $372.00

resistance: $375.00

possible range: $372.00-$376.00

December Soyoil: Key support is 33c, and a violation of this level opens the door to a fall towards 3270c, which is a place to cover a short or to own the market.  This market maintains a 32c-35c sideways trade.

key support: 3270c

first support: 33c

resistance:  3360c

possible range: 3290c-3340c 

JANUARY BEANS

The overall direction has been higher, but the pullback from contract highs of $10.88 1/2 imply that this market is now attempting to find a value low.  Trendline support crosses today from $10.45-$10.48, so any violation of the bottom blue line will be problematic for the bull, opening the door to a larger pullback towards $10.35.  The uptrend remains intact with an ADX still strong at 44, but the downturn has weakened it a bit.  The break, however, has corrected overbought extremes which may make the market more buy-able again.  Would look for a likely $10.45-$10.85 trading range to develop.

WPI on Twitter

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength

The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...

Hecho en Mexico; Radical for Small; Impeach Tai?

Hecho en Mexico While outgoing Mexican president and populist AMLO tries to shutdown American farmers, the U.S. government just keeps giving to Mexico. The de minimis duty is about to go away. The personal free import allowance is complex. Most American citizens reentering the country think of...

feed-grains

Squeeze on White Corn

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength

The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...

Hecho en Mexico; Radical for Small; Impeach Tai?

Hecho en Mexico While outgoing Mexican president and populist AMLO tries to shutdown American farmers, the U.S. government just keeps giving to Mexico. The de minimis duty is about to go away. The personal free import allowance is complex. Most American citizens reentering the country think of...

feed-grains

Squeeze on White Corn

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Thank you...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Weighing in on strategic realignment

WPI’s team was retained by the governing board of a U.S. industry organization to review a decision, reached by vote, to invest significant assets into the development and management of an export trading company. WPI’s team conducted a formal review of this decision and concluded that the current level of market saturation would limit the benefits of the investment. Based on WPI’s analysis and recommended actions, the board subsequently reversed its decision and undertook a strategic planning effort to identify more impactful investments. On behalf of numerous clients, WPI has not only assisted in identifying strategic paths but also advised their implementation.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up