SPREADS
October crush trades at 1.09c/bu while oilshare is slightly weaker at 2.78 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 12 1/4c to 12 1/2c, while Dec 19/20 corn narrows into 27 1/4c from 30 1/2c, and values that were at 34c a week ago. Nov/Jan beans trades from 13 3/4c out to 14c carry. Dec wheat/corn trades from 96 1/4c to 95 1/4c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 1/4c out to 7 1/4c, while Dec/March trades from 7c to 7 1/4c.
PALM OIL
October closed up 19 ringgits. Indonesian palm producers are concerned about drought impacting their crop. Drought has hit a large part of the islands as a mild El Nino affects the weather pattern. Palm prices are up 10 percent since July.
NEWS
Stocks were higher overnight but have traded both sides of even. Crude oil weakens down to $55.87/barrel with the US dollar higher at 98.42.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 4-6 higher
meal: 1.60-1.90 higher
soyoil: 15-20 higher
corn: 4 1/2-5 higher
wheat: 2 -2 1/2 higher
canola: 2.20-2.40 higher
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Overall trading range is $8.60 - $8.95, using $8.75 as a pivot point. For the day, minor trendline resistance crosses at the session high of the overnight back at $8.75/$8.76, so crossing to the upside of this level will trigger more fund short-covering and return to the upper portion of the trading range. Overall, traders are still looking for good rallies to sell.
first support: $8.70
resistance: $8.75/$8.78
possible range: much the same or higher
Dec Meal: Good support is located at $295.00/$296.00 with minor resistance at $300.00. We might stay within this congestion zone, however crossing to the upside of $300.00 is going to give the market a further lift towards the higher end of the trading range at $305.00. If short, would be covering or pricing from $295.00-$300.00 as it has held as long term support with only one trade to the downside since May.
first support: $296.50/$297.00
resistance: $300.00/$300.50
possible range; much the same or higher
December Soyoil: Prices appear to have set a temporary top from 2945c-3025c, with sell-stops under 29c taking the market back to important support, which is closer to 2850c/2860c. Would look for soyoil to probably be the weaker chart today, and even the first to go negative if prices break. Given that the 200-day moving average returns to 2945c, would look for another test of 29c again.
first support: 2890c
resistance: 2945c
possible range: much the same
December Corn: Sporting a bit of a "v" recovery off the low of $3.69, which typically sees more upside follow-through. The market is beginning a consolidation process that may eventually test the open gap from $3.88-$3.92. Trendline support on another break crosses near the overall low at $3.69 at $3.67, with $3.50 (should we get there) becoming a long-term value level. For the day would look to see if an opening break could hold back towards $3.74 for further trading range activity.
key support: $3.70/$3.73
resistance: $3.80/$3.81
possible range: much the same
Dec Wheat: Overall trading range appears to be from $4.70-$4.85. Ranges have been extremely compact from $4.70-$4.80. In that the market has refused to break much, we may need to see a corrective price rally upward that would get this market a bit unstuck. Wheat may be a follower of corn today.
first support: $4.71
resistance: $4.75/$4.77
possible range: much the same or higher
NOVEMBER BEANS
The trading range from $8.60 to $8.95 is outlined in red, and could straddle/strangle the market with a lower outcome as seasonally this is the time of the year when it's hard to keep bean prices higher. The contract low is $8.15 1/2. The dominant formation guiding price action now is the downtrend channel, so crossing it to the upside will indicate a short-covering rally back towards the top of the trading range again. For the day, that pivot point returns to $8.75. On a higher start, look to probably test it, and if short would cover or try the long side if we head to the upside of the downtrend channel from $8.75/$8.77.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America