SPREADS
Dec crush trades to 1.34c/bu, new highs, while oilshare trades 48.80%. Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c carry while the Dec 21/22 inverse trades from 7 1/2c to 5c. Dec/March wheat trades from 12 1/2c to new lows of 13c. Dec wheat/corn trades from 2.12c down to 2.07 1/2c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 10 1/4c to 10 3/4c, while Nov 21/22 trades from 3c inverse to 1 3/4c. Nov/March beans trades from 18 3/4c to 19 1/2c.
PALM OIL
Cash offers for Nov. are up $35/mt ending at 1.282.50/mt and 1.285.00/mt, respectively. Ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data to be released on October 11, analysts are forecasting Sep. production at 1.75 mmt, up 2.8% from the prev. wk. Sep. exports are projected at 1.625 mmt, up 39.8% vs. August, with ending stocks at 1.868 mmt, down 0.4% month to month.
NEWS
Stocks are 300 pts lower with crude oil trading down to $78.17/barrel, and the US dollar firmer at 94.44.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 1-3 higher
meal: 80-1.50 higher
soyoil: 55-65 pts higher
corn: 2 1/2-3 higher
wheat: 5-8 higher
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Seasonally beans tend to begin to establish their lows, but so far the market has yet to do so. The market needs a close over $12.65 to get back on track for a sideways trading range. However, the reversal from $12.31 may have legs, and if pullbacks towards $12.40 hold the rally could extend higher.
first support: $12.42/$12.45
resistance: $12.55/$12.60
possible range: much the same or lower
December Meal: Hit a target low at $320.00 but has not bounced very far from it. Trendline support on a further break crosses at $318.00/$319.00 and if we go there think it would hold. Would look for prices to likely head into a $320.00-$340.00 trading range, and if needing to price this is still a good opportunity.
first support: $319.50/$320.00
resistance: $324.00/$325.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Bullish price action with a quick rally over the targeted high of 6020c which is also the 100-day moving average. The close was constructive, near the high of the PM session at 6179c. Would look to now target 62c-6250c, which could keep beans nicely supported as well. A pullback to 60c would be a buying opportunity.
first support: 6050c/6080c
resistance: 62c-6220c
possible range: 6150c - 6220c or higher
December Corn: Trading range from $5.30 - $5.48, with trendline support today crossing at the low of $5.34. The market retains a decent bid, and is currently sitting in a small uptrend channel. The market has the potential to target $5.45/$5.50, and eventually hit $5.60 if trade continues to settle over $5.35.
first support: $5.33/$5.35
resistance: $5.44/$5.45
possible range: much the same
December Wheat: Trading range is from $7.25-$7.65, and a pullback towards $7.40 is holding. In the big picture the pullback from the high trade at $7.63 1/2 is fairly shallow which is constructive for the market, and friendly price action for the chart. Would look to therefore challenge $7.55/$7.60 again, as a weaker market would have already fallen below $7.20.
first support: $7.40/$7.42
resistance: $7.52/$7.55
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER MEAL
The downtrend continues with new lows at $320.10. The market is now oversold with an RSI at 28%, (anything under 30% is trending into oversold territory), but that is not low enough to necessitate a correction. The market has yet to put in a solid trade indicating that the season low is placed. The ADX is strengthening at 27, (anything over 25 is a stronger trend), indicating that sellers will be there on rallies. Technically the market is weak but could begin to see a rebound from $320.00 with a rally back to at least $335.00/$340.00. Would look for the beginning of a $320.00-$340.00 trading range.

TAGS – Feed Grains, North America