World Perspectives
feed-grains

Technical Views - Rebound Higher

SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 1.34c/bu, new highs, while oilshare trades 48.80%.  Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c carry while the Dec 21/22 inverse trades from 7 1/2c to 5c.   Dec/March wheat trades from 12 1/2c to new lows of 13c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 2.12c down to 2.07 1/2c.   Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 10 1/4c to 10 3/4c, while Nov 21/22 trades from 3c inverse to 1 3/4c.  Nov/March beans trades from 18 3/4c to 19 1/2c.  

PALM OIL

Cash offers for Nov. are up $35/mt ending at 1.282.50/mt and 1.285.00/mt, respectively.  Ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data to be released on October 11, analysts are forecasting Sep. production at 1.75 mmt, up 2.8% from the prev. wk.  Sep. exports are projected at 1.625 mmt, up 39.8% vs. August, with ending stocks at 1.868 mmt, down 0.4% month to month.  

NEWS

Stocks are 300 pts lower with crude oil trading down to $78.17/barrel, and the US dollar firmer at 94.44.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  1-3 higher

meal:  80-1.50 higher

soyoil:  55-65 pts higher

corn:  2 1/2-3 higher

wheat:  5-8 higher

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Seasonally beans tend to begin to establish their lows, but so far the market has yet to do so.  The market needs a close over $12.65 to get back on track for a sideways trading range.  However, the reversal from $12.31 may have legs, and if pullbacks towards $12.40 hold the rally could extend higher.  

first support:  $12.42/$12.45

resistance:  $12.55/$12.60

possible range:  much the same or lower

December Meal:  Hit a target low at $320.00 but has not bounced very far from it.  Trendline support on a further break crosses at $318.00/$319.00 and if we go there think it would hold.  Would look for prices to likely head into a $320.00-$340.00 trading range, and if needing to price this is still a good opportunity.  

first support: $319.50/$320.00

resistance:  $324.00/$325.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  Bullish price action with a quick rally over the targeted high of 6020c which is also the 100-day moving average.  The close was constructive, near the high of the PM session at 6179c.  Would look to now target 62c-6250c, which could keep beans nicely supported as well.  A pullback to 60c would be a buying opportunity.

first support: 6050c/6080c

resistance:  62c-6220c

possible range: 6150c - 6220c or higher

December Corn:  Trading range from $5.30 - $5.48, with trendline support today crossing at the low of $5.34.  The market retains a decent bid, and is currently sitting in a small uptrend channel.  The market has the potential to target $5.45/$5.50, and eventually hit $5.60 if trade continues to settle over $5.35.

first support: $5.33/$5.35

resistance:  $5.44/$5.45

possible range: much the same 

December Wheat:  Trading range is from $7.25-$7.65, and a pullback towards $7.40 is holding.  In the big picture the pullback from the high trade at $7.63 1/2 is fairly shallow which is constructive for the market, and friendly price action for the chart.  Would look to therefore challenge $7.55/$7.60 again, as a weaker market would have already fallen below $7.20.

first support: $7.40/$7.42

resistance:  $7.52/$7.55

possible range: much the same 

DECEMBER MEAL

The downtrend continues with new lows at $320.10.  The market is now oversold with an RSI at 28%, (anything under 30% is trending into oversold territory), but that is not low enough to necessitate a correction.  The market has yet to put in a solid trade indicating that the season low is placed.  The ADX is strengthening at 27, (anything over 25 is a stronger trend), indicating that sellers will be there on rallies.  Technically the market is weak but could begin to see a rebound from $320.00 with a rally back to at least $335.00/$340.00.  Would look for the beginning of a $320.00-$340.00 trading range.  

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