World Perspectives
feed-grains

Technical Views - Rebound Higher

SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 1.34c/bu, new highs, while oilshare trades 48.80%.  Dec/March corn trades from 8c to 8 1/2c carry while the Dec 21/22 inverse trades from 7 1/2c to 5c.   Dec/March wheat trades from 12 1/2c to new lows of 13c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 2.12c down to 2.07 1/2c.   Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 10 1/4c to 10 3/4c, while Nov 21/22 trades from 3c inverse to 1 3/4c.  Nov/March beans trades from 18 3/4c to 19 1/2c.  

PALM OIL

Cash offers for Nov. are up $35/mt ending at 1.282.50/mt and 1.285.00/mt, respectively.  Ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data to be released on October 11, analysts are forecasting Sep. production at 1.75 mmt, up 2.8% from the prev. wk.  Sep. exports are projected at 1.625 mmt, up 39.8% vs. August, with ending stocks at 1.868 mmt, down 0.4% month to month.  

NEWS

Stocks are 300 pts lower with crude oil trading down to $78.17/barrel, and the US dollar firmer at 94.44.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  1-3 higher

meal:  80-1.50 higher

soyoil:  55-65 pts higher

corn:  2 1/2-3 higher

wheat:  5-8 higher

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Seasonally beans tend to begin to establish their lows, but so far the market has yet to do so.  The market needs a close over $12.65 to get back on track for a sideways trading range.  However, the reversal from $12.31 may have legs, and if pullbacks towards $12.40 hold the rally could extend higher.  

first support:  $12.42/$12.45

resistance:  $12.55/$12.60

possible range:  much the same or lower

December Meal:  Hit a target low at $320.00 but has not bounced very far from it.  Trendline support on a further break crosses at $318.00/$319.00 and if we go there think it would hold.  Would look for prices to likely head into a $320.00-$340.00 trading range, and if needing to price this is still a good opportunity.  

first support: $319.50/$320.00

resistance:  $324.00/$325.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  Bullish price action with a quick rally over the targeted high of 6020c which is also the 100-day moving average.  The close was constructive, near the high of the PM session at 6179c.  Would look to now target 62c-6250c, which could keep beans nicely supported as well.  A pullback to 60c would be a buying opportunity.

first support: 6050c/6080c

resistance:  62c-6220c

possible range: 6150c - 6220c or higher

December Corn:  Trading range from $5.30 - $5.48, with trendline support today crossing at the low of $5.34.  The market retains a decent bid, and is currently sitting in a small uptrend channel.  The market has the potential to target $5.45/$5.50, and eventually hit $5.60 if trade continues to settle over $5.35.

first support: $5.33/$5.35

resistance:  $5.44/$5.45

possible range: much the same 

December Wheat:  Trading range is from $7.25-$7.65, and a pullback towards $7.40 is holding.  In the big picture the pullback from the high trade at $7.63 1/2 is fairly shallow which is constructive for the market, and friendly price action for the chart.  Would look to therefore challenge $7.55/$7.60 again, as a weaker market would have already fallen below $7.20.

first support: $7.40/$7.42

resistance:  $7.52/$7.55

possible range: much the same 

DECEMBER MEAL

The downtrend continues with new lows at $320.10.  The market is now oversold with an RSI at 28%, (anything under 30% is trending into oversold territory), but that is not low enough to necessitate a correction.  The market has yet to put in a solid trade indicating that the season low is placed.  The ADX is strengthening at 27, (anything over 25 is a stronger trend), indicating that sellers will be there on rallies.  Technically the market is weak but could begin to see a rebound from $320.00 with a rally back to at least $335.00/$340.00.  Would look for the beginning of a $320.00-$340.00 trading range.  

WPI on Twitter

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.9625/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soybeans closed at $13.6975/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 22 Soymeal closed at $405.6/short ton, down $3...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Accountability and a comprehensive approach to export programming

WPI’s team helped construct a strategic approach to develop, implement, and track promotional activities in 8 key regions across the globe for an agricultural export association. With continued progress measurement and strategic advisory services from WPI, the association has seen its ROI from investments in promotional programming increase by 44 percent over the past 5 years. Not only does this type of holistic approach to organizational strategy provide measurable results to track and analyze, it fosters top-down and bottom-up organizational accountability.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up