SPREADS
October crush trades to 73.82c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.78%. Spreads are slightly weaker today with Nov/Jan trading out to 3 3/4c from lows of 2 3/4c. Dec/Dec corn trades back out to 21 1/2c from 19c, and Dec/March trades from 9c to 9 3/4c. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.75c to 1.72c.
PALM OIL
November up 82 ringgits, with cash offers up $27.50/mt, hitting its highest level since Jan 24. Palm oil prices are trading sharply higher on bullish soyoil. Cargo surveyors are expected to release data on export volumes on Tuesday.
NEWS
Stocks are higher this morning, up 260 pts. with crude oil trading down to $36.85/barrel. The US dollar falls to 92.98.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 3-5 higher
meal: mixed
soyoil: 45-50 higher
corn: 1 higher
wheat: 1/2-1 higher
canola: 1.00-1.30 higher
What to look for after the start? Prices set new highs and the flurry of business announcements are going to draw more buyers in. Would look for a retest of these new highs today during the session, if not at the open.
BUSINESS
USDA reports 350,000 mt of corn sold to China for 20/21
USDA reports 106,000 mt of corn sold to Japan for 20/21
USDA reports 129,000 mt of beans sold to China for 20/21
USDA reports 318,000 mt of beans sold to unknown for 20/21
TECHNICALS
December Corn: Major direction is higher and the market traded over $3.70. Support moves up to $3.65, and resistance back to $3.72/$3.73. Upside targets are now adjusted back to $3.75/$3.77. Overall trading range for now is from $3.55-$3.71.
first support: $3.65
resistance: $3.72
possible range: much the same or higher
December Wheat: The overall trading range is from $5.30 - $5.70. Prices continue to congest around the 20- and 200-day moving average which is at $5.42. Though prices break lower, there is now much downside follow-through. If short, would probably elect to lift something here, or try the long side of the market with a close sell-stop. Trendline support on further weakness is located at $5.38.
trendline support; $5.38
resistance: $5.48
possible range: much the same or higher
November Beans: Bull market with new ctr highs located at $10.08 3/4. The rally does not appear to be finished as the upside continues. Conditions are getting extremely overbot at 83.49%, (anything over 70% suggests a correction is imminent), but the market continues to build on gains. Good support under the market has moved to $9.75, and is now the lower end of an undefined trading range. Look for prices to target $10.35 at its higher end given the rally strength. In strong bull markets, first support levels tend to hold. On a break, that good support moves up to $9.95.
first support: $9.95/$9.98
resistance: $10.08/$10.10
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Overall trading range is higher, and the market traded to new highs at $328.00 before closing a gap at $325.00 to drop to $323.40 for a PM session low. Lower end of the trading range moves up to $315.00 with the new high, and the target resistance moves back to $330.00. Would continue to own dips, though for the day higher oilshare may keep meal prices under -wrap.
first support: $321.00-$322.00
resistance: $326.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Overall trading range is higher, and the market left a pennant formation in the same direction it entered it to place a new trading range high at 3438c today. Target highs include 3450c to 3460c, and then 35c. The trade to new highs over 3404c moves lower support to 33c, with trendline support at 3350c given the new trading range highs. The ADX is at a strong 46, meaning that pullbacks should continue to be owned.
first support: 3380c
resistance: 3450c/3460c
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER SOYOIL
Major direction is higher, and the market set a new trading range high this AM at 3438c. The ADX remains strong at 46, but this market has a tendency to pull back sharply after setting new highs. The chart has offered up a good buying opportunity by working into a triangle formation, which resulted in an upside break-out. Prices typically exit triangles in the same direction they entered them, which was the theme of trade today. Would look for a pullback towards 3390c and 3350c should offer up very good support if we go there. Target highs are now located at 35c for a new 33c-35c trading range possibility. Currently the bottom of the range is now 33c with morning peak at 3438c.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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