World Perspectives
farm-inputs

Technical Views - Retrace Lower

SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.0%.  Dec/March corn trades out to 8c from 7c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 23 1/2c carry to 20 3/4c.  Dec/March wheat carry trades from 10 1/2c to 11c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.86 1/4c to 1.83c.  Nov/Jan bean trades out to 9c carry from 8 3/4c, while Nov 21/22 trades from 32 3/4c to 29 1/4c.  

PALM OIL

Nov. closed down 94 ringgits/mt at 4,167 ringgit/mt.  Malaysian Palm Oil Board announced it would keep its Oct. export tax steady at 8.0%, with a reference was of 4,472.46 ringgit/mt.

NEWS

Stocks are down 689 pts with crude oil trading lower to $69.96/barel.  The US dollar trades up to 93.45.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  13-15 lower

meal:  2.40-2.80 lower

soyoil:  90-95 lower

corn:  9-10 lower

wheat:  8-9 lower

canola:  7.00-7.50 lower

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Prices are at the lower end of the recent range which is at $12.62.  Today stands the best chance of moving lower, with a low end close and prices sitting right on the 200-day moving average.  Typically, this strong moving average can hold a market drop.  However, if it does not, look for a likely trip to $12.50.

key support: $12.65/$12.66

resistance:  $12.80/$12.82

possible range: much the same or lower

December Meal:  Prices are moving sideways from $335.00 - $365.00, but are back under key support at $340.00.  Resistance now moves back down to $344.00/$345.00 where moving averages sit, and we are open once more to exploring the bottom of the range at $335.00.  Look to likely go there.  

first support:  $336.00 to $337.00

resistance:  $340.00 to $341.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  Prices are at the bottom of a trading range which is 55c. The low end close could find a probe under 55c, in which the next best support would be 5450c.  Think we know at the open if prices can break key support, but if we do would lower the trading range to 54c-59c.

first support: 5490c/55c

resistance:  5550c/5560c

possible range: much the same

December Corn:  Prices traded to recent trading range lows at $5.15, which has been a top end of the market on a drop to $5.00 and is mid-term support today.  Strong support is at $5.08, the 200-day moving average, and when we open think we know if we are going to break $5.15 for a drop to this level.  End-users may be there to get something covered from $5.15 down to $5.05.

key support: $5.08

first support: $5.15

resistance:  $5.20/$5.22

possible range: $5.15 - $5.22 or lower

December Wheat:  Prices closed near the lows of the session and back under $7.00.  Would not be surprised to find this market consolidating around $7.00 once we open.  However, the overall range is from $6.80-$7.20, and the low-end start may see follow-through selling.

first support: $6.95/$6.98

resistance:  $7.05/$7.08

possible range: $6.95-$7.05 

MARCH CORN

This chart is moving sideways, but a solid line of resistance is now stopping a further rally beyond $5.45.  The 200-day moving average is well under the market at $5.15, and is very strong support.  Would consider this a $5.15-$5.45 trading range which could stay that way into the Sep. 30 stocks report.  The trend is weak with an ADX of 15, meaning follow-through at tops and bottoms is nil, which is indicative of trading range behavior.  

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