World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Retracement and Filling Gaps

SPREADS

August crush trades to 97.28c/bu while oilshare trades to 47.87%.  Sep oilshare trades to 47.27%.  Sep/Dec corn spread is firmer with an inverse from 3 1/2c to 4 3/4c, while Dec/March carry narrows into 7c from 7 1/4c.  August /Nov bean inverse finds lower values at 52c from 56 1/4c, while Sep/Nov trades from 11c down to 9c.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $4.10 to $4.80 carry.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 8c to 8 3/4c carry.  

PALM OIL

Holiday

NEWS

The stock market started the evening with 155 pt gains and is currently up 130 pts.  The US dollar trades higher to 93.11 while crude trades in the red down to $65.78/barrel.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  18-22 higher

meal:  4.80-5.20 higher

soyoil:  70-80 pts higher

corn:  12-12 1/2 higher

wheat:  13-15 higher

canola:  3.00 - $3.50 higher

BUSINESS

No business reported.

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  The major direction is sideways but on the chart, pullbacks are getting higher and higher, suggesting that we could extend gains back over $14.00.  Trade over $14.30 would directly target $14.50 with little back resistance.  Stronger markets show the ability to bounce, and therefore would cover a short on a break back towards $13.85 should we go there.  The close was solid, so would look for the continuation of a $13.70-$14.30 market or higher.

first support: $13.85 /$13.88

resistance:  $13.98/$14.05

possible range; much the same

December Meal:   Overall trading range is from $355.00 to $385.00, and the market could head back to $375.00 if it opens over $370.00 again.  Look for a retracement to the upside as prices retrace the break from yesterday.  If needing to price or cover a short, first support moves up to $368.00.

first support: $368.00

resistance:  $372.00/$373.00

possible range; much the same

December Soyoil:  The chart placed a new high for the move up at 6634c before breaking to 6220c yesterday.  Hard breaks continue to be met with buying interest and stabilization.  Would continue to view pullbacks as buying opportunities for a market that could trend back towards 66c to 67c.  Look for further congestion trade today and think that 6350c could find support for a move up to 65c. 

first support: 6330c to 6350c

resistance:  6430c to 6440c

possible range: much the same 

December Corn:  The market will fill a gap at $5.73 1/2, and the ability to keep $5.50 intact as support was impressive.  If we are going to fill the gap and establish a $5.30 - $5.80 trading range, today appears to offer the best chance for further upside.  The good settlement will likely entice buyers on pullbacks.

first support: $5.55 to $5.56

resistance:  $5.65/$5.69

possible range: $5.58 - $5.68/$5.70

December Wheat:  The market has now bumped up the trading range, and appears to be ready to target $7.30/$7.35.  Momentum is higher, and support moves up to $7.15/$7.17 on a morning pullback.  Overall, the market remains well bid, but may have to congest some of its previous gains.  Look for a possible $6.90-$7.35 trading range to form given the price direction.

lower support: $7.08/$7.10

first support: $7.17

resistance:  $7.25/$7.30

possible range: $7.17 - $7.27/$7.30 or lower

SEPTEMBER WHEAT

The major trend is higher as prices climb over $7.00 towards the last peak high posted at $7.23 back in May.  Pullbacks are going to see support as the trading range is extended to the upside.  Could own the market against $7.00 as prices are not yet significantly overbought.  Look for prices to target $7.25 as there is not much back resistance, and previous tops at $7.05 could serve as support as prices climb.  Overall, the chart appears to offer the possibility of a $6.80 - $7.30 trading range.

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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