World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Sideways and Lower

SPREADS

August crush trades to 95c/bu while oilshare trades to 46.76%.  Sep/Dec corn trades up to 4 1/2c from 3 1/2c while Dec/March carry trades from 7c out to 7 1/2c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 8 1/2c out to 9c.   Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.52 1/2c down to 1.44 1/2c.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $4.50 into $3.40.  August/Nov bean inverse trades from 48 1/4c up to 52c, closing at 50 3/4c.  Sep/Nov bean inverse trades from 7c to 9c.  

PALM OIL

October palm oil prices closed 36 ringgits lower down to 4,113 ringgit/mt. 

NEWS

Stocks are 44 pts in quiet trade as crude oil trades back below $70/barrel to $69.86/barrel.  The US dollar trades down to 92.63.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  25-28 lower

meal:  4.80-5.50 lower

soyoil:  130 - 150 pts lower

corn:  14-16 lower

wheat:  18-20 lower

canola:  24.00-26.00 lower

BUSINESS

No business reported.

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Trading range activity continues with the inability to climb back over $14.00 and hold gains.  Prices turn lower out of a congestion formation of trade from $13.75 - $14.00.  Prices could now head towards interim support at $13.45, and would expect that to probably occur given the weak set-up.   Lowest end of the range is $13.25, but don't think we go there today.  Overall trading range is still from $13.25- $14.25.

first support: $13.43 to $13.45

resistance:  $13.70 to $13.75

possible range: much the same or lower

December Meal:  Overall trading range is from $355.00 to $385.00.  The market price action is sideways, but defensive to begin the day.  Would look for follow-through selling and perhaps a move down to $363.00.  If needing to price something, it is a good place to start.

first support: $363.00 to $365.00

resistance:  $369.00 to $370.00 

possible range: $365.00 to $370.00

December Soyoil:  Prices correcting from new highs this week of 6634c. The pattern has been to print new highs followed by breaks of this size.  Prices would have to settle under 59c to suggest a lower trend would take place.  Would still prefer to find a place to cover a short.

first support: 6050c to 61c

resistance:  62c

possible range:  6080/61c to 62c 

December Corn:   Overall trading range is now from $5.35 low end to $5.75.  The inability to completely fill the gap and the price action lower is negative.   We begin the day on trendline support at $5.50, but may run sell-stops down to $5.45.   

first support: $5.45 / $5.50

resistance:  $5.58/$5.60

possible range: much the same

December Wheat:  Prices traded over the $7.00 level to reach a high of $7.26 3/4.   The close back over $7.00 shows a bit more strength, and would not be surprised to see prices holding and congesting around this level despite opening weakness.  If short, would think about covering something in.  Could also own against $7.00 with a tight sell-stop.  Trading range for now appears to be $6.70 low end, (should we settle under $7.00 today), to $7.25.

first support: $6.90-$6.93

resistance:  $7.08/$7.15

possible range: much the same 

SEPTEMBER CORN

Overall trading range is from $5.40 to recent high at $5.80.   The gap remains open as highlighted in red, and breaks seem to occur with ease while the rallies are labored.  Therefore, would look for a trade back to the 100-day moving average of $5.52 before we find support.  The ADX trend at 15 suggests that the choppy back and forth price action may continue, and we will see quickly whether $5.52 can hold today.  IF needing to price and we break the 100-day moving average, the ball is in favor of the bear, and could hold off pricing until we trend back towards $5.30 to $5.35.

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