SPREADS

Sep. crush trades to 74.39c/bu while oilshare is slightly firmer at 34.18%.  Nearby bean spreads strengthen with August /Nov trading to new highs of 5 1/2c from 3 1/2c, with Sep/Nov trading from 1/2c to 1 1/2c carry.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $4.80 out to $5.00.  Sep/Dec corn is a tight 7 1/4c to 7 1/2c trade.   Sep /Dec wheat trades from 4 3/4c to 5 1/2c.  Sep wheat/corn trades from 2.07 3/4 down to 2.05c.  

PALM OIL

October up 52 ringgits ending at 2,708 ringgits.  Cash offers for August for RBD palm oil and olein were up $10/mt at $692.50/mt and $695.00/mt, respectively. 

NEWS

Stocks were higher but now trades both sides of unchanged as initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 1.416 mln during the week-ended July 18, which is an increase of 109,000 vs. week ago.  Crude fell to $41.67/barrel, while the US dollar traded to 95.0 after the report.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 1 1/2-2 higher

meal:  .80-.90 higher

soyoil:  15-20 higher

corn:  1/2-1 lower

wheat;    2 1/2-2 lower

canola:  .10-.20 higher

BUSINESS

USDA reports 132,000 mt of beans sold to China for 20/21.

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Prices begin the day with a solid close near the higher end of the trading session.  Support moves back to $8.90 and resistance back to $9.00/$9.02.  The turn higher from lower and over resistance favors a test of $9.02.

first support: $8.92

resistance:  $9.00/$9.02

possible range: much the same

December Meal:  Prices remain in a congestive pennant pattern, and any trade over $296.00 would exit this congestive phase to the upside.   The chart formation is slightly more positive as prices approach trendline resistance.  Both beans and meal are up against trendline highs this AM, so trade over will trigger more short-covering in this case.

major support: $293.00

resistance:  $296.00

possible range: much the same or higher

December Soyoil:   Prices remain in a congestive phase from 30c-31c, but the major direction is higher.  Would prefer to own large breaks here, and for now the double lows at 3020c represent good support.  Double highs are located at 3205/3106c.  Look to probably test them on a positive overnight trade.

first support: 3055c

resistance:  3090/31c

possible range: much the same or higher

December Corn:  Continuing to sit at the bottom of the trading range with lows at $3.30 and highs at $3.40.  Despite early weakness, the market may still use the $3.30-$3.33 level as a base of support for a bit.  Bears need to see an early break of $3.32 if prices are to head lower.  For now, the trend remains sideways.

first support: $3.32 1/2-$3.33

resistance:  $3.35 1/2-$3.36

possible range; much the same

September Wheat: Prices are rangebound, but on a weaker open still sit very close to major resistance at $5.35.  The chart looks more positive than negative this morning, which suggests that futures may make another run over $5.35, which will trigger buy-stops into the current top at $5.40.  If short, would not advise to be so should prices head higher again into positive territory from lower.

first support: $5.28

resistance:  $5.35/$5.38

possible range: much the same or lower

NOVEMBER BEANS

Prices range-bound but showing some inherent strength by ignoring bearish news items, (new tensions between US/China), which is a clue that traders are looking to own pullbacks and weakness.  This increases the chance for higher trade.  The market pullback has been fairly shallow as well, with an $8.88 low this week, which is also constructive.  Funds are long and the chart looks to go in favor of a trade over trendline resistance at $8.98.  A trade over $9.02 will target $9.10.  Think we will probably go there despite a weak trend reading with an ADX at only 16.  

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America