SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 75.40c/bu, while oilshare trades back below 34.0% to 33.44%. The nearby bean August/Nov inverse congests from 5 1/2c to 6 1/2c, while Sep/Nov trades from even to 1c carry. Sep/Dec corn widens out to 9c from 8 3/4c. Sep/Dec. wheat trades from 5 3/4c to 6 3/4c. SEp wheat/corn trades from 2.10 1/2c down to 2.05 1/4c.
PALM OIL
Oct. down 107 ringgits. Indonesia's trade ministry announced it will keep its August crude palm oil export tax unchanged at zero. Interket estimated Malaysian palm oil exports for July 1-25 at 1.454 mmt, up 4.6% vs. the 1.390 mmt exports month ago.
NEWS
Stocks are up 80 pts with the US dollar falling into new trading range lows at 93.60. Gold futures continue to be a feature trading to new highs at $1938.00/oz on a risk to safety trade.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 1/2-1 higher
meal: 2.20-2.80 higher
soyoil: 35-40 lower
corn: mixed/lower
wheat: 6-8 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 132,000 mt of bean sold to China for 20/21
USDA reports 250,371 mt of beans sold to Mexico for 20/21
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Major direction is higher, and the market has been congesting around $9.00. Trendline support today crosses at $8.93, and the market will have to hold it if beans are to work upward. Trendline resistance crosses at $9.05/$9.06, with the 200-day moving average crossing at $9.08.
first support: $8.93
resistance: $9.03/$9.06
possible range: $8.95-$9.05 or lower
December Meal: Prices in a trading range from $290.00-$308.00. Would look for resistance to be located at $302.00, and we probably go there for a test. Trade above it finds prices spiking to $306.50 on short-covering. ADX is weak at 15, meaning there is not much follow-through on either side.
first support: $299.00
resistance: $302.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Prices closing in on a test of 30c. A break of 30c targets 2980c first and then 2965c. If short would scale down cover on a break under 30c towards 2965c. The main direction to now has been higher, so would look to get long at 2960c-2965c if we get there.
key lower support: 2960c
first support: 2980c
resistance: 3030c
possible range: 2980c-3020c or higher
September Wheat: Overall trading range is from $5.15-$5.50, and the market has trendline support today at $5.30. Would look to perhaps test $5.25-$5.30 once again, but it should provide ample support. The market is mainly sideways, and is using $5.35 as a pivot level.
first support: $5.30
resistance: $5.40/$5.41
possible range: much the same
December Corn: Prices remain in a sideways trade from $3.30-$3.40. If the market can rally past $3.39 would look to fill the gap from $3.42/$3.44. Funds are short, and they may want to cover if prices work upward.
first support; $3.33/$3.35
resistance: $3.38
possible range: $3.34-$3.38 or higher
DECEMBER MEAL
Prices in a sideways trade from contract lows of $287.50 to $308.00. Prices formed a triangle last week as noted by the green lines, and once above it found short-covering to lift prices to the next key level of resistance which is $302.00. Prices are following-through to the upside and probably therefore test trendline resistance today at $302.00. Would look for the market to perhaps struggle against this level, but any trade above $302.00 is going to trigger more short-covering and a possible trade to $306.50 where the 200-day moving average crosses. All in all, the major direction remains sideways, and therefore could straddle/strangle this continued $290.00-$308.00 trading range.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America