World Perspectives
feed-grains

Technical Views - Soy to Lead

SPREADS

Dec crush trades to 89c while oilshare trades to 44.76%.  Dec/March corn carry trades from 8c to 8 1/4c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 20c inverse to 19c.  Dec /March wheat trades from 10 3/4c to 11c carry.  Dec wheat/corn trades 1.76 1/2c.  Nov/Jan trades from 9c to 9 1/4c, while Nov 21/Nov 22 inverse trades from 23 3/4c to 23 1/2c.  

PALM OIL

Nov. up 21 ringgits.   SGS estimated palm exports at 1.070 mmt, up 3.6.7% vs. month ago.  

NEWS

Stocks are up 228 pts as crude oil firms to $71.63/barrel.  The US dollar rallies to 93.08.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  2-3 higher

meal:  .80-1.00 higher

soyoil:  10-20 higher

corn:   2 lower

wheat:   2 lower

canola:  2.40 higher

What to look for today?  Feels like the soy complex may lift grains and bring some stability to them at the lower end of ranges.  

TECHNICALS

November Beans:   Posted a new low for the move down at $12.60 1/4 and has to trade back over the 200 day moving average located at $12.66.  Prices will then attempt to congest at the lows.  Trendline support is located at $12.52 should we break $12.60, and in that case would look to go there.  However, the $12.50-$12.55 level should offer up a good support zone and a possible bounce.

first support: $12.58-$12.62

resistance:  $12.66-$12.68

possible range: much the same or higher

December Meal:  Prices remain rangebound and close to a trading range lows of $335.00.  Since we are so close to trading range lows, would probably elect to get something covered if needing to.  Would look for a rally towards $344.00/$345.00 to offer very good resistance, as the market trades from $335.00 to $345.00.

first support: $337.00/$338.00

resistance:  $341.00/$342.00

possible range; much the same

December Soyoil:  Trading range is from 55c-60c, but the trade under 54c to double lows of 5479c must prove it can hold, and that we are indeed at the bottom of a trading range.  Lower trendline support is located at 5450c should we go there, and if we take out 5479c we likely will.    If needing to price, think we are close to some value levels, and 5450c-55c should hold on the chart for a further upside congestion trade.

First support: 5480c

resistance:  5540c

possible range: much the same or higher

December Corn:  Big picture trading range is from $4.97-$5.37, and the market pulls back halfway to test key support at $5.15.  The 200-day moving average is located at $5.09 today.  Should we go there, would look for it to likely hold.  The chart is attempting to prove if $5.00-$5.15 is a value level now.  Prices have been "heavy" all night, that is to say a slow drift lower without much of a bounce.  It will be up to the soy complex to perhaps bring some stabilization to corn and wheat.

trendline support: $5.14/$5.15

resistance:  $5.23/$5.24

possible range: much the same

December Wheat: Overall trading range is from $6.80-$7.20.  Though we begin under $7.00, would not be surprised to see this market regroup and head higher again in congestion trade from $7.00-$7.20.  Could continue to straddle/strangle here.

first support: $6.93/$6.95

resistance:  $7.03/$7.05

possible range: much the same

DECEMBER CORN

Prices in a trading range from $4.97 - $5.40.  A pullback to $5.15 is the designated low for the moment.  The trend remains weak with an ADX of 15, meaning we probably work sideways for a bit.  New resistance also appears to be forming from $5.20 - $5.25, and could slow a recovery trade.  The chart is attempting to determine if $5.15 is close enough to a trading range low for the moment, with the 200-day moving average of $5.09 providing a spot that the market may trend towards, but ultimately hold.

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