World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Split Market

SPREADS

March crush trades to 1.01c/bu while oilshare firmes to 36.46%.  July/Dec corn trades from 1 3/4c to 2c, while March/May posts a 6 3/4c trade from 6 1/2c.  July/Nov beans trades from 3 1/4c to 4 1/2c.  March wheat/corn trades from 1.65 1/4c to 1.63c.  March/May meal widens out to $4.10 from $4.00.

PALM OIL

March palm oil settled up 5 ringgits. Vegoil sources said that India's gov. has informally approached vegoil industry and gov. agencies to avoid purchasing Malaysian palm oil.  The boycott of the vegoil is in response to Malaysian Prime Minister's criticism of India's Kashmir region policies and a new citizenship law.  India still has a lot more palm they need to purchase, and the rhetoric is not helping.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Outside markets are quieter with stocks up 10 pts and crude oil weaker on the day, trading down to $62.30/barrel.  The US dollar is firmer trading to 96.95.

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans: 1-2 lower

meal: .30-.80 lower

soyoil:  15-18 higher

corn:  1/2 lower

wheat:  2 1/2-3 lower

TECHNICALS

March Beans: Trading range bound for now with key lower support at $9.35 and resistance at $9.50/$9.55.  For the day would look for beans to probably turn higher, following perhaps a firmer soyoil trade.  Key support is now $9.35, and think pullbacks will be viewed as short-covering or buying opportunities heading into the report.

key support: $9.35

resistance:  $9.50

possible range: $9.38-$9.48 or higher

March Meal: Overall big picture trading range is from $295.00/$300.00 with recent tops at $308.00.  The market is working into a pennant pattern of price consolidation.  If needing to price something, breaks down towards $300.00 are still good pricing opportunities, and if the chart goes there would get something on the books. 

first support: 300.00

resistance:  $303.00

possible range: much the same 

March Soyoil:  Interesting set-up now, with what could be a possible top forming.   Any gap-lower situation that leaves an island gap at the top with a 100K long still in tow would result in a hard break.  However, given the bullish fundamentals and strong trend, would still use 3440c as a level to get long for a possible trip back towards recent highs.  A move back over 35c could result in a quick test of 3567c, contract highs.

key support: 3440c

resistance: 3490c/35c

possible range; much the same

March Corn:  Looking like the more vulnerable market now, having broken key support at $3.85 for a trade towards $3.80.  With the break lower, resistance moves down as well, with a rally towards $3.89 now a selling opportunity.  Big picture trade for straddle/strangle is from $3.71-$3.91, and given the down-move any bullish news via the USDA report would trigger buy-stops and have more impact than last week. Think the market is trapped with pressure until the numbers are released.

first support: $3.81 1/2-$3.82

resistance:  $3.86 /$3.87

possible range: much the same

March Wheat: Prices are sideways from $5.40 - $5.65.  Key support is at triple lows of $5.40.  The market begins the day on critical support at $5.45, and sell-stops will probably be located right under this level.  Closing on the lows of the session is never a sign of strength, so may find stops right at the open.

key support: $5.45/$5.47

resistance:  $5.52/$5.53

possible range: much the same or lower 

MARCH BEANS

Large sideways trade is now forming, with good support still forming from $9.35-$9.40, which could be used as a springboard to higher trade, and a move back towards $9.60.  Prices remain above the 20, 100, and 200 day moving averages.  For now, better support is located at the bottom of the trading range from $9.33-$9.35, and would be a buyer against that level until momentum turns downward.  Overall large trading range picture remains $9.15-$9.60, with the possibility of heading back towards recent highs given the test of $9.35/$9.38 in recent weeks, a level that has so far held.

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