SPREADS
Dec crush trades down to new lows at 84.14c/bu, while oilshare trades to 45.10%. Dec/March corn trades into 8 3/4c from 9 1/4c. DecMarch wheat trades from 10 1/4c to 11c. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.73c down to 1.69 3/4c. Nov 21/Nov 22 trads from 26c inverse to 32c, starting at a weaker level. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 8-8 1/2c.
PALM OIL
Nov. up 42 ringgits at 4,320 ringgit/mt.
NEWS
Stocks are up 180 pts as crude oil rallies on tight supply concerns once more. Crude oil trades to $70.78/barrel with the US dollar at 92.88.
CALLS
Calls are as follow:
beans: 3-5 lower
meal: 1.80-2.00 lower
soyoil: mixed
corn: 5 1/2-6 1/2 lower
wheat: 6 1/2-7 1/2 lower
canola; 1.50-1.60 higher
What to look for today? Think we see possible buy bean/sell corn spread trade, along with higher oilshare. If one market goes green after the open, think it is soyoil, which may stabilize beans.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Overall trading range is from $12.60-$13.00. The market may begin to pivot 20-25c either side of $12.80 as it seeks equilibrium. However, funds have been reducing length, and rallies towards $13.00 appear to be opportunities to get something sold.
first support: $12.70-$12.72
resistance: $12.85/$12.88
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Overall trading range appears to be from $335.00 - $355.00/$360.00. Prices need to close over $345.00 to leg higher. Would look for a further consolidation phase from $335.00 -$345.00/$350.00, and for a chance to once again possibly test trading range lows.
first support: $338.00
resistance: $342.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Oilshare and fund length remain solid here, making the low of 55c a possible good pricing or buying opportunity. Would look for any pullback towards 55c again to invite more bargain hunting or buying interest for a 55c to 60c trading range. While the chart is working sideways/lower, it still does not present as bearish as others.
first support: 5550c
resistance: 5640c to 5650c
possible range: much the same or lower
December Corn: Overall trading range is from $4.97 - $5.30. Key resistance is now again from $5.25/$5.28, and until this top is cleared prices could head sideways to lower. Corn does like to get into patterns, and once it has gone for a break to new lows, it likes to walk back to verify. Would look for extended weakness after the open, and for a likely test of $5.00 again.
first support: $5.02/$5.05
resistance: $5.15/$5.17
possible range: much the same
December Wheat: Overall trading range is from $6.75 - $7.20. The head and shoulders top was confirmed, though it took some time to get there as wheat rallied back shortly after breaking down. We could hold a cycle low at $6.77, with a projected low-end target at $6.65. Would look for the market to continue to likely struggle on rallies towards $7.00.
first support: $6.75/$6.77
resistance: $6.82/$6.85
possible range; much the same
NOVEMBER BEANS
Trading range overall is from $12.62 - $13.35, where we have been trading for several weeks. Prices could still be open to another test of recent lows, but the rally in beans was met with much more strength than in corn. ADX is weak at 13, suggesting that a sideways pattern may remain in place. Funds have been net sellers on rallies, and now are only 57K long, which is bearish in the long run. If rallies are sold this week and funds flip from long to short, prices will likely test $12.40-$12.50.
TAGS – Feed Grains, North America
