SPREADS
We continue to see positive crush margins in the US, with August at 99c/bu and Sep. at 1.31c/bu. August oilshare trades to 47.70% and Sep. is at 47.25%. Sep/Dec meal trades from $3.40 carry out to $3.90. August/Nov bean inverse trades from a low of 49 1/4c up to 54 1/4c, while Sep/Nov trades from 7c inverse down to 2 3/4c. Sep/Dec corn inverse trades from 3 1/2c to 4 3/4c, while Dec/March carry trades from 7 1/4c to 7 1/2c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 9c to 9 1/4c carry, new lows. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.34 1/4c to 1.43 1/2c.
PALM OIL
Oct. palm closed up 134 ringgits/mt, up 3% for a fifth consecutive weekly gain, supported by strong demand from India and a cut in domestic export tax reference price.
NEWS
Stocks are strong, up 134 pts today, with crude oil trading in the ref to $71.46/barrel, and the US dollar trading up to 93.02.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 3-5 lower
meal: 3.50-3.80 lower
soyoil: 70-80 pts higher
corn: mixed/lower
wheat: 1/2-1 higher
canola: 0.40-0.80 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 100 kmt of beans sold to Mexico for 21/22.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Overall trading range is sideways, and technical resistance moves down to $13.85 given the break to $13.42 yesterday. On a weaker note, we may see some follow-through selling activity, with the best support at $13.40, and very good support at the 100-day moving average of $13.25. Lack of conviction is obvious here, so would continue to strangle/straddle $13.25-$14.25 with options, but prefer an upside exit. Prices probably walk back to test $13.50 to see if it can hold.
first support: $13.45 to $13.50
resistance: $13.65/$13.70
possible range: much the same or higher
December Meal: Prices overall in a trading range from $355.00 to $385.00 and begins on trendline support today at $361.00. On a weaker open, if we break $360.00 would target $355.00 which would be a good pricing opportunity.
trendline support: $361.00
resistance: $365.00
possible range; much the same or lower
December Soyoil: Prices set a new high at 6634c and broke to 6058c yesterday. Prices are sharply higher again today, and weaker markets will not offer up bounces such as this. Would look for more upside follow-through, and a congestion phase from 61c to 62c to likely find values back towards 65c again.
first support: 6250c
resistance: 6325c to 6350c
possible range: much the same
December Wheat: Prices are attempting to define a trading range from the new highs of $7.26 3/4. The move back below $7.00 was met with buying interest, and today's price action is crucial as to whether we can rally back and test our recent high. Funds are even, which may allow a wide chop from $6.80 - $7.30 eventually. Prefer not to sell this market at this time given the ability to close back over $7.00 today.
first support: $6.90-$6.93
resistance: $7.05/$7.10
possible range: much the same
December Corn: Overall trading range appears to be sideways from $5.40 - $5.80. The chart appears to be offering more friendly formations with a new uptrend beginning to take place. Would look for prices to attempt to fully fill the gap at $5.73 1/2 again.
first support: $5.55/$5.56
resistance: $5.65/$5.68
possible range: much the same
NOVEMBER BEANS
The major direction is sideways with an ADX of 16 signaling the lack of follow-through at either end of the chart. Despite this week's weakness, prefer to be a buyer of beans until prices can push under major support, which is the 100-day moving average of $13.25, which also crosses with major trendline support as shown by the blue line. Look to straddle/strangle the market from $13.25 - $14.25, though each successive break has been higher than the last which is net positive.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America