World Perspectives
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Testing the Market

Note: The Technical Perspectives launch period will be closing soon and your access to these reports will end on Tuesday, 17 September 2019. To continue accessing this information, please let us know by emailing Matt Herrington at mherrington@agrilink.com

SPREADS

Crush values dropped as beans moved higher on the board, with October values at 93c/bu.  October oilshare trades down to 32.71 percent as meal prices rally against a sideways soyoil market.  Corn spreads narrow with Dec/March trading at 12 1/4c from 12 3/4c, but Dec 19/Dec 20 narrowing the most trading into 35c from 39 1/2c, and values over 43c.  Nov/Jan bean spread trades to 13 1/4c, not far away from the 14 1/4c lows.  Dec/March wheat narrows into 5c from 5 1/4c. 

PALM OIL

Up 4 ringgits

NEWS

The Dow is up 65 pts with crude oil trading to $55.68/barrel off its lows and the US dollar trading to a setback of 97.99.

CALLS

Calls today are higher across the board:

beans: 1 1/2-3 higher

meal:  80-1.00 higher

soyoil:  3-5 higher

corn:   3 1/2-4 1/2 higher

wheat:  3 1/2-4 higher

canola;  1.20-1.50 higher

BUSINESS

USDA reports 204,000 mt of beans sold to China for 2019/20.

TECHNICALS

Nov Beans: Prices recover off the low end of the trading range at $8.50, with a test of the high end now at $9.00.  The pivot point returns to $8.75, which was the top of the most recent market as we tested and ultimately rejected $8.50.  With this price action, the lower end of the market likely now moves back to $8.70 with the possibility that we trade to $9.15 where the 200-day moving average and peak high crosses.  If short and the market takes out $9.00, this is the risk at the very least.  We are likely to wind up testing it at some point. Look for pullbacks towards lower support levels to hold as setbacks are taken as a buying opportunity.

first support: $8.85

resistance:  $8.98/$9.02

possible range: $8.90-$9.00/$9.02 

Dec Meal: Contract low still stands at $291.60, which is reinforced with a $292.00 recent low.  The market turned higher from sideways reversing out of a major downtrend channel suggesting a change in the overall trend.  First resistance on more strength would be at $303.50/$305.00, and may stop a rally today.  Top of the trading range is at $311.00.  A pullback to $299.00/$300.00 should hold given the more constructive chart outlook.

first support; $299.00/$300.00

resistance:  $303.00

possible range; much the same or higher

Dec Soyoil: Prices are sideways with best upper resistance located at 2945c.  Think at some point that we go there but if long, may want to let go of some as oilshare seems to be correcting downward a bit.  Look for prices to begin a sideways trend from 2850c - 2950c.

first support: 2890c-29c

resistance;  2935c to 2940c

possible range: much the same

Dec Corn:  Contract low was tested yesterday at $3.52 1/2 with double lows now located there.  The market is attempting to carve out a trading range, and would look to test $3.74 1/2/$3.75 minimally for what may be a $3.52-$3.82 trading range eventually.    For the day, a pullback towards $3.68 may hold and it does not feel like we have hit our trading range highs.  

first support: $3.68

resistance: $3.74 1/2 to $3.75

possible range: much the same

Dec Wheat: The major trend has turned higher from lower with what could be a $4.50 - $4.90/$4.95 trading range.  The market now bounced off double resistance levels of $3.83 ½, which we took out, and now become support.  Look for an extension trade higher.  While we may have hit the lows, we have yet to define our highs.

first support: $4.80/$4.81

resistance: $4.90/$4.92

possible range; much the same

DECEMBER CORN

The market is attempting to now define a trading range from what could be a seasonal low at $3.52 1/4 to an eventual high trade back towards $3.80.  The downtrend weakened just a bit but is still strong meaning sellers may still be waiting to put on a new short at the first sign of market failure.   Suspect we trend into a $3.52-$3.82 market, and the chart shows that the first resistance line is located close by at $3.75.  Taking it out clears the way towards 3.80.  

WPI on Twitter

Related Articles

Most Apparent Solution; Future is Biotech

Most Apparent Solution The EU’s organic sector wants the bloc’s officials to take more action to ensure they achieve the target of 25 percent of agricultural output being organic by 2030. Specifically, they want a campaign to increase consumer demand for organic food so that organic...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: HPAI Developments

Yesterday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued a federal order requiring testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) for the interstate movement of lactating dairy cattle. Specific guidance will be issued at some point today, and the order will go...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not

Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...

Most Apparent Solution; Future is Biotech

Most Apparent Solution The EU’s organic sector wants the bloc’s officials to take more action to ensure they achieve the target of 25 percent of agricultural output being organic by 2030. Specifically, they want a campaign to increase consumer demand for organic food so that organic...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: HPAI Developments

Yesterday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued a federal order requiring testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) for the interstate movement of lactating dairy cattle. Specific guidance will be issued at some point today, and the order will go...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not

Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...

livestock

Forecast Cow-Calf Profits Near Record, Robust Heifer Retention Expected

Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this doesn’t mean they are less important to understanding the beef industry’s current state and outlook. Additionally, discussion of thi...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Communicating importance of value-added products

Facing increasing pressure to quantify the value of export promotion efforts to investors, a U.S. industry organization retained WPI to develop a quantitative model that better communicated the importance of exports. The resulting model concluded that value-added meat exports contributed $0.45 cents per bushel to the price of corn, increasing support for that sector’s financial support of WPI’s client. In addition to serving the red meat industry with this type of analysis, WPI has generated similar deliverables for the U.S. soybean and poultry/egg industries.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up