SPREADS
July crush falls to 74.32c/bu while oilshare trades higher to 42.24%. Bull spreads see more strength with Jul/Nov beans trading up to 2.04 3/4, past the prev. high of 2.00c. July /Dec meal trades to a new high of $29.60 inverse from $25.70. July/Dec corn trades to a high of 1.16 1/2c from 1.11c. July wheat/corn trades from 18 1/4c to 13c.
PALM OIL
Holiday. Trades will resume on Monday, May 17th.
NEWS
The stock market is lower down 100 pts, with crude oil prices rising to $66.31/barrel, and the US dollar firming to 90.65. Consumer prices jumped in April as the economic rebound and supply disruptions drove up prices for goods and services. US consumer prices surged 0.8% in April, and over the past 12 months prices are up 4.2%, the fastest rise since a 4.9% gain in Sep 2008.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
July beans: 23-25 higher
July meal: 3.00-3.50 higher
July soyoil: 90-100 pts higher
July corn: 3-4 higher
July wheat: 3-4 lower
July canola: .90- 1.00 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 100,000 mt of corn sold to Mexico
TECHNICALS
July Beans: Overall trading range moves up to $15.75- current contract highs at $16.53 1/4. The chart does not appear to be finished at the top, and we begin on first support at $16.40. Would look for the market to test current contract highs again, and the upper target moves back to $16.75. Since the market closed at $16.15 and opened there, it also becomes key support on a break of size, and if we go there could trigger sell-stops that takes us back to $16.00. If so, it is now a buying opportunity.
first support: $16.20-$16.25
resistance: $16.53/$16.60
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
July Meal: Prices broke to the upside of channel resistance at $435.00, and double lows are located at $438.00, which may hold a break should we go there. The current chart structure moves up good support to $425.00, the lower end of the range, and would look to target $455.00 to $458.00 which is key resistance. Prices work sideways to higher from sideways, but a break-out would come from a settlement over $460.00.
first support: 442.00/$445.00
resistance: $453.00- $455.00
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
July Soyoil: Prices are looking to establish a trading range from 63c to 66/67c, with a target high at 6750c. Double highs are now at 6624c to 6628c, and the market is not too far from this level. As such would expect to see a test again of our trade highs, and a pullback towards 6475c to see support should we trade down there. Continue to own dips, as the move through trendline support this week at 63c was a bear trap.
first support: 65c to 6550c
resistance: 6620c to 6650c
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
July Corn: Prices are printing four tops from $7.30-$7.33 which is now forming resistance. Though this normally would provide for a selling opportunity, the recent pattern has been to post these resistance highs only to move above them. Would still view the $7.15 to $7.20 level as a place to own for an eventual target high of $7.50.
first support: $7.22
resistance: $7.30/$7.32
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
July Wheat: Sideways trade from $7.20 to $7.70, and the chart has now shown us this wide trading range in one week's time. Could continue to straddle or strangle, but given the bullish atmosphere would prefer to own good breaks for a possible run above $7.70.
first support: $7.30/$7.35
resistance: $7.45/$7.55
possible range: much the same but depends on the report
DECEMBER CORN
The overall trading range is now from $5.98 trendline support to contract highs of $6.38. The ADX is strong at 57 so pullbacks are going to invite buying interest. At the moment, there is no top in place. PRices would have to now settle under $5.95 in order to leg lower, and in that case we could be at $5.75, which would in this atmosphere prove to be value. However, given the current structure we may not be able to get all the way back to $5.75, so would be looking to price, cover, or own if prices can get back towards $5.90-$6.00.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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