SPREADS
Sep. crush trades to 74.85c while oilshare trade back under 34.0% to 33.81% this Am. Corn spreads weaken a bit. THere is a negative seasonal for the Sep/Dec corn spread, with producer movement seeing the spread move out to 8 3/4c from 7 1/2c. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 5 1/4c to 5 1/2c. Nearby bean spreads weaken a bit but only after posting new highs with Aug/Nov at 6 1/4c from 5 3/4c inverse. SEp/Nov trades from 3/4c inverse to 1/4c. Sep. wheat/corn trades from 2.05c to 2.07 3/4c, with a recent high closer to 2.23c.
PALM OIL
October palm up 69 ringgits. Malaysian palm oil rose to a five-month high due to an expectation for a drop in production due to heavy rains and better exports. Higher palm supports soyoil futures this AM.
NEWS
Stocks are lower today, down 73 pts, while the US dollar trades down to 94.57. Crude oil trades to $41.67/barrel high. The weaker US dollar is net supportive for wheat.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: steady/firm
meal: .20-.30 lower
soyoil: 10-13 higher
corn: 1/2 higher
wheat: 4-6 higher
canola: .90-1.00 higher
BUSINESS
USDA reports 133,000 mt of meal sold to the Philippines for 19/20.
USDA reports 252,000 mt of beans sold to unknown
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Prices continue to work higher, building on gains over $9.00. The major trend remains higher and would look for a continuation for the market to trade towards the 200-day moving average of $9.09 which is extremely good resistance. The $9.10-$9.13 level are market tops, and that would look to probably contain a further rally. Market pullbacks will continue to see support. A better place to own the market or cover a short for today is $8.90, but we may not go there.
first support: $8.95
resistance: $9.05/$9.08
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Prices broke out to the upside of a pennant pattern, and a pullback to the top of the formation would be where the market closed at $297.00. Would look to see if prices can quickly hold onto support at this level. If $296.50-$297.00 holds, look for a rally back towards $300.00.
trendline support: $296.50/$297.00
resistance: $299.50
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Prices are congesting from 30c-31c, with double highs placed at 3105c/3106c. Trendline resistance crosses from 3055c/3065c, so any trade over this level would be very constructive and result in a test of double highs. The trend higher has been very strong, so would probably expect to see a test of 3115c at some point, above the double highs. In the big picture, the back and fill to 30c has been fairly shallow.
first support: 3030c
resistance: 3065c
possible range: much the same or higher
December Corn: Prices sideways now from $3.30-$3.40. The inability of the market to penetrate long term support at $3.30 resulted in this somewhat muted rally. If beans work higher, look for more short-covering to result in a test of $3.38/$3.39 once again. The market congested heavily at $3.34 yesterday before entering a good close. It may become a good place to cover a short today.
first support: $3.33/$3.34 1/2
resistance: $3.38/$3.39
possible range: much the same
September Wheat: Overall trading range is from $5.15-$5.50, and the market has made its way back towards the middle of the range at $5.35. The close was near the top of the market, and therefore suggests that prices can climb over the 200-day moving average of $5.35 to head towards $5.40 key resistance. A series of higher lows makes this chart more buy-able.
first support: $5.33
resistance: $5.38/$5.40
possible range: much the same or lower
SEPTEMBER WHEAT
Overall trading range is from $5.18 on the corrective break to double highs of $5.51 1/2. Prices continue to press into the 200-day moving average of $5.35, which shows inherent market strength. A continued challenge of moving average usually suggests that they will be violated. A stronger trendline has formed below the market, as depicted by the blue uptrend line), which should allow for a price challenge to $5.40. Based on the current chart formation, would look to test $5.40 or higher.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week appeared to shake off such concerns. July soybeans traded lower for the past three trading sessions but larger gains achieved at the beginn...
The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4 2023. That rate was the slowest in almost two years, dating back to Q2 2022. Recall that in the 2 February Ag Perspectives report on...
