SPREADS
Dec crush trades to 96c/bu while oilshare trades to 45.72%. Corn spreads are firmer across the board. Dec/March corn trades into 7 1/4c from 8c, while Dec 21/22 corn inverse trades from 18c up to 23 1/2. Dec wheat/corn spread trades from 1.72 3/4c up to 1.79 1/2c. Nov 21/Nov 22 inverse trades from 25 3/4c to 29 1/4c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 8 3/4c out to 9 1/4c. Dec/March meal trades from 5.00 to $5.40 carry.
PALM OIL
Nov. up 98 ringgits ending at 4,438 ringgit/mt.
NEWS
Stocks have been trading both sides of even with crude up to $71.73/barrel and the US dollar down to 92.42.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 8-10 higher
meal: .20-.30 higher
soyoil: 65-85 higher pts
corn: 5-7 higher
wheat: 2-4 higher
canola: 6.00-8.00 higher
What to look for today? Strong price action with good closes usually leads to upside follow-through. Would look for further strength at the open.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Prices are well bid this morning rallying up and away from the 200-day moving average of $12.65. This pushes the key support for the market up to $12.75 once again, and would now look to test $13.00/$13.05. Pullbacks may see support in lieu of solid price action. Since there are shorts in this market, they may be part of the bid as prices push higher.
first support: $12.75/12.80
resistance: $12.95-$12.98
possible range: much the same
December Meal: Momentum is sideways, and pullbacks are now seeing some buying interest. We are at the bottom of a trading range, and the market is walking it back to see if $340.00 is a base we can rally from. If needing to price, meal appears ready to enter a congestion phase from $340.00-$355.00.
first support: $340.00
resistance: $345.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: Prices are sharply higher but have to move over 58c to gain upside traction. While we probably test 58c, it may find some initial resistance. Still, prefer to be a buyer of good breaks here, and any pullback to 5650c is a buying opportunity.
first support: 56.80c to 57c
resistance: 5790c/58c
possible range: much the same or higher
December Corn: Showing some strength this AM and closed on a high note. Would look to now test the top of the downtrend channel which crosses today at $5.30. Should we move to the upside of the channel, would trigger a further rally towards $5.50. Pullbacks could be buying opportunities in lieu of strength.
first support: $5.20/$5.23
resistance: $5.28/$5.30
possible range: much the same
December Wheat: Overall trading range is from $6.80-$7.20/$7.25. The trade back over $7.00 is constructive, and will now target $7.10. However, we are on a good rally, and gains here have been less impressive.
first support: $6.95/$6.98
resistance: $7.05/$7.08
possible range: much the same
NOVEMBER 21/NOVEMBER 22 BEAN SPREAD
The inverse has been in a downtrend since the peak last May at 1.92 1/4c. Rallies each month have not been able to trade above previous weeks, and once prices broke below crossing moving average lines of 1.02c the path of least resistance was lower. While the inverse was stuck in a range from 50-66c, eventually the downside picked up steam again. Current prices are now trading sideways from 22c to 40c. Another line of resistance has formed which is going to be tough to move over at 33c. The chart may be in the process of basing but will need to trade over 35c to suggest current lows can hold. Price pattern features another possible break- down once again.
TAGS – Feed Grains, North America
