SPREADS
Dec crush is 88.65% with oilshare at 44.83%. Spreads are wider with Dec/March corn trading from 7 /34c to 8 1/2c carry, while Dec 21/Dec 22 trades from 23 1/2c to 18 1/4c. Dec/March wheat trades from 10 3/4c to 11c. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.77 3/4c to 1.76c. Nov/Jan bean carry trades out to 8 1/2c to 9c. Nov 21/Nov 22 bean carry trades from 25c to 26 3/4c. Dec/March meal trades from $5.40 out to $5.70 carry.
PALM OIL
Dec. futures up 139 ringgit/mt to 4,331/ringgit/mt.
NEWS
Stocks are up 200 pts as China returns from holiday. Crude oil trades up to $71.80 with the US dollar at 93.29.
CALLS
Calls are as follow:
beans: 3-5 higher
meal: 50-.60 lower
soyoil: 60-80 pts higher
corn: 3-3 1/2 higher
wheat: 9-10 higher
canola: 8.00 higher
What to look for today? Prices closed on a high note, so would look for further upside follow-through.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Overall trading range is from $12.60 - $12.95. Prices have to clear $12.85 with settlement above in order to test $13.00 again. The rejection of the low of $12.60 was constructive and allowed prices to turn sideways from lower. However, good rallies since early August have been selling opportunities, as prices have failed to display the characteristics needed for a bull market, which calls for rising open interest, higher prices, and good volumes. For now, support returns to $12.65 as prices attempt to stabilize.
first support: 12.65/$12.68
resistance: $12.80/$12.85
possible range: 12.70-$12.85 or lower
December Meal: Overall trading range is from $335.00 - $365.00, with several lows at $338.00 now building in a better line of support on a break. Look for further price congestion from $340.00-$350.00 once again.
first support: $341.00
resistance: $345.00
possible range: much the same
December Soyoil: The market moved down to new lows at 54c but held them for a bounce back to 56c. Would look for prices to pop back and re-test 59c/60c as the chart stabilizes with a good rally. Pullbacks today may find buying interest.
first support: 5550c
resistance: 5650c/57c
possible range: much the same
December Corn: Prices are firmer today moving up and away from the 200 day moving average at $5.09, and successfully tested support at $5.12/$5.15. Under extreme pressure yesterday the market remained over this strong 200 day moving average which is positive. Prices are likely to continue in a sideways trade from $5.10 - $5.35 into the Sep. 30 quarterly stocks report.
first support: $5.18
resistance: $5.25/$5.27
possible range: much the same
December Wheat: The break to $6.88 was at a newly formed trendline support, and it held for a bounce-back towards $7.00. Prices remain in a $6.80-$7.20 trading range, and the push off the low at $6.88 confirms that. If prices were to break $6.88, would probably see a quick flush to the 200 day moving average at $6.72, but if so would probably elect to take something off at that level, as prices have shown a tendency for quick recovery.
first support: $6.90
resistance: $698/$7.05
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER WHEAT
The major trading range is from $6.80-$7.20, and prices have been in this vicinity since August. The head and shoulders top which broke the market down still seems to have some sway, as each rally has been a point of failure. Prices must move over the 100-day moving average which crosses today at $7.01, but think we test at and in all likelihood move over it. A break of $6.88 would result in new selling and move to the 200-day average at $6.72. For today, a good performance leads us in the opposite direction, and would look to stay a $6.80-$7.20 range for now.
TAGS – Feed Grains, North America