World Perspectives
feed-grains

Technical Views - Upside Follow-through

SPREADS

Dec crush is 88.65% with oilshare at 44.83%.  Spreads are wider with Dec/March corn trading from 7 /34c to 8 1/2c carry, while Dec 21/Dec 22 trades from 23 1/2c to 18 1/4c.  Dec/March wheat trades from 10 3/4c to 11c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.77 3/4c to 1.76c.   Nov/Jan bean carry trades out to 8 1/2c to 9c.  Nov 21/Nov 22 bean carry trades from 25c to 26 3/4c.  Dec/March meal trades from $5.40 out to $5.70 carry.

PALM OIL

Dec. futures up 139 ringgit/mt to 4,331/ringgit/mt. 

NEWS

Stocks are up 200 pts as China returns from holiday.  Crude oil trades up to $71.80 with the US dollar at 93.29.

CALLS

Calls are as follow:

beans: 3-5 higher

meal:  50-.60 lower

soyoil:  60-80 pts higher

corn:  3-3 1/2 higher

wheat:  9-10 higher

canola:  8.00 higher

What to look for today? Prices closed on a high note, so would look for further upside follow-through.

TECHNICALS

November Beans:  Overall trading range is from $12.60 - $12.95.  Prices have to clear $12.85 with settlement above in order to test $13.00 again.  The rejection of the low of $12.60 was constructive and allowed prices to turn sideways from lower.  However, good rallies since early August have been selling opportunities, as prices have failed to display the characteristics needed for a bull market, which calls for rising open interest, higher prices, and good volumes.  For now, support returns to $12.65 as prices attempt to stabilize.  

first support: 12.65/$12.68

resistance:  $12.80/$12.85

possible range: 12.70-$12.85 or lower

December Meal:   Overall trading range is from $335.00 - $365.00, with several lows at $338.00 now building in a better line of support on a break.   Look for further price congestion from $340.00-$350.00 once again.

first support:  $341.00

resistance:  $345.00

possible range: much the same

December Soyoil:  The market moved down to new lows at 54c but held them for a bounce back to 56c.  Would look for prices to pop back and re-test 59c/60c as the chart stabilizes with a good rally.  Pullbacks today may find buying interest.  

first support:  5550c

resistance:  5650c/57c

possible range: much the same

December Corn:  Prices are firmer today moving up and away from the 200 day moving average at $5.09, and successfully tested support at $5.12/$5.15.  Under extreme pressure yesterday the market remained over this strong 200 day moving average which is positive.  Prices are likely to continue in a sideways trade from $5.10 - $5.35 into the Sep. 30 quarterly stocks report.

first support:  $5.18

resistance:  $5.25/$5.27

possible range: much the same 

December Wheat:  The break to $6.88 was at a newly formed trendline support, and it held for a bounce-back towards $7.00.  Prices remain in a $6.80-$7.20 trading range, and the push off the low at $6.88 confirms that.  If prices were to break $6.88, would probably see a quick flush to the 200 day moving average at $6.72, but if so would probably elect to take something off at that level, as prices have shown a tendency for quick recovery.

first support:  $6.90

resistance:  $698/$7.05

possible range: much the same

DECEMBER WHEAT

The major trading range is from $6.80-$7.20, and prices have been in this vicinity since August.  The head and shoulders top which broke the market down still seems to have some sway, as each rally has been a point of failure.    Prices must move over the 100-day moving average which crosses today at $7.01, but think we test at and in all likelihood move over it.  A break of $6.88 would result in new selling and move to the 200-day average at $6.72.  For today, a good performance leads us in the opposite direction, and would look to stay a $6.80-$7.20 range for now.

WPI on Twitter

Related Articles
feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling

Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall.  There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Up, Despite Grey Clouds

The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week appeared to shake off such concerns. July soybeans traded lower for the past three trading sessions but larger gains achieved at the beginn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $344.7/short ton, down $2.9 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling

Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall.  There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Up, Despite Grey Clouds

The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week appeared to shake off such concerns. July soybeans traded lower for the past three trading sessions but larger gains achieved at the beginn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $344.7/short ton, down $2.9 f...

Q1 GDP Comes in Low, Interest Rate Expected to Stay High

The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4 2023. That rate was the slowest in almost two years, dating back to Q2 2022.  Recall that in the 2 February Ag Perspectives report on...

Image
From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up