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SPREADS
Nov crush trades to 81.16c/bu while oilshare trades back over 33 percent to 33.29 percent. Dec/March corn trades from 12 1/4c to 12 3/4c. Dec 19/Dec 20 corn trades into 36c from 38 1/4c, and vs. values that were out to 43c last week. Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.13c to 1.14c. Dec/March wheat trades out to 6 1/2c from 6c. Dec/March meal trades out to $5.20 from $4.90. Nov/Jan beans trades from 13 1/4c to 13 1/2c. Jan/March beans trades from 11 3/4c to 12c carry.
PALM OIL
AmSpec Malaysia estimated palm oil exports for FH Sep at 669,709 mt, down from FH August when 765,205 mt.
NEWS
The Dow is off 97 pts after the news of the drone attack over the weekend. Crude oil trades up to $63.34/barrel, and mostly is impacting soyoil futures, which are higher as well. China's stock market struggles with August industrial output up 4.4% percent on the year vs. an expected 5.2 percent.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2 -2 lower
meal: 1.20-1.60 lower
soyoil: 25-30 higher
corn: 1 higher
wheat: 1 1/2-2 higher
canola: 1.50-1.60 higher
Major trends for the day include higher oilshare (buy soyoil/sell meal trade) and buy corn/sell bean trade.
BUSINESS
USDA reports 256,000 mt of beans sold to China for 2019/20.
TECHNICALS
November Beans: Major direction is sideways/higher from lower, and the chart placed an outside week closing higher. Good support moves up to $8.70/$8.75 with first support at $8.85, and any move back over $9.00 will trigger more fund buying and a potential move towards key resistance at $9.15. Though we begin the day lower, don't think the upside of this market is completely over yet.
first support: $8.90/$8.92
resistance: $9.05/$9.08
possible range: much the same or lower
Dec Meal: Prices traded higher from lower and above a downtrend channel. The pullback to the low of $299.00 was on top of channel, and may hold. The trading range for now is from $295.00 - $305.00, and if needing to price something, would take advantage of a break to do so.
trendline support: $298.50-$299.00
resistance: $302.00
possible range: much the same
Dec Soyoil: The market recovered from an overall low of 2820c to trade to new highs in the PM session at 2988c. The chart is sporting an open gap from 2850c - 2960c, so gap-fill is support, and the market could test prev. highs at 3025c if left open at the start of the day. Very strong support is now located at 2940c, which is the 200-day moving average. With the higher move, 2940c-2950c becomes key support.
first support: 2945c-2950c
resistance: 2990c, over that 3025c
possible range: if the gap stays open from 2950c-2960c, would look to challenge prev. highs at 3025c
Dec Corn: Prices are trying to carve out a trading range from the contract lows at $3.52 1/4 to new highs. The market has good resistance from $3.74 1/2-$3.77, and we could test it today if opening strength is any indication. The high PM session at $3.72 1/2 is against trendline resistance today, so any trade above this level will trigger buy-stops for a larger move towards $3.75/$3.77. Since we could not break the market in the night session and closed on support, would look to probably head back towards our highs to see if we will trigger buy-stops that takes us to new highs.
first support: $3.65/$3.66
resistance: $3.73
possible range: much the same or higher
Dec Wheat: Big picture trading range looks to be from $4.60-$4.90. The market setback into key support at $4.83 1/2, which has been key resistance on the upside when prices broke to $4.50 1/2. Think the path of least resistance still remains higher and that we have a chance of testing $4.90 again. Best resistance is located at $4.95, however, and if long would probably take a partial profit should we go there.
first support: $4.82/$4.83
resistance: $4.90/$4.92
possible range: much the same
DECEMBER CORN
Trading range for the moment is from contract lows of $3.52 1/4 up to recent highs posted today at $3.72 1/2. The high of the night at $3.72 1/2 is right up against trendline resistance, so any trade over this level will trigger buy-stops. The downtrend strength has been damaged falling from values of an ADX reading of 33 down to 28, meaning both buyers and sellers are now playing this range.
Bears need to see an open back under $3.70 with a break of $3.65 in order not to move higher. For the day, the net close at $3.70 is more positive than negative and would look for the market to test its PM session highs of the night. If we trade over the upper downtrend line pictured in blue, it would open the market up for a test of $3.77/$3.80.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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