SPREADS
May crush trades to 70c/bu while oilshare trades to 36.93%. Inverses are weaker with the sell-off with July/Nov beans trading down to 1.58c from 1.66 1/2c, and May/July trading from 10 1/4c to 12c. July/Dec meal inverse is lower trading down to $37.80 from $39.50. July/Dec corn trades to 62 3/4c from 66 1/2c inverse, while May/July trades from 9 1/2c to 11 3/4c. July wheat/corn trades 1.24 1/4c to 1.25c.
PALM OIL
May palm oil traded down 41 ringgits closing at 3,743.
NEWS
Stocks are 50 pts lower on end-of-month profit-taking, with crude at $61.80/barrel. Traders are booking profits on recent buy energies/sell US dollar trade. A sell-off on Wall Street picked up speed when the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note exceeded 1.5%, a level not seen in more than a year, and far above the 0.92% it was trading at only two months ago, as it suggests that interest rates may be set to move higher.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 20-22 lower
meal: 5.50-6.50 lower
soyoil: 70-80 lower
corn: 6 1/2-7 1/2 lower
wheat: 10-12 lower
canola: 8.00-9.00 lower
BUSINESS
No business reported
TECHNICALS
May Meal: Weak trade with prices trading now in a descending triangle with rallies into $430.00 to $440.00 not seeing upside follow-through. The trade below $420.00 finds lower prices and therefore appears ready to move to the downside of the triangle pattern. Key support is $413.00, but under that is very little to stop a slide towards $400.00.
first support: $413.00
resistance: $418.00
possible range: much the same
May Beans: Prices hit a new contract high this week at $14.45 3/4, which is also the top of an uptrend channel, before quickly breaking towards the bottom of the channel which crosses today at $13.68. Look to probably go there on further opening weakness, with the large break trading prices into a sideways pattern. If the market were to break and trade under $13.66 would begin to suggest a top is starting to form. For today, given recent strength, would be covering a short, pricing, or trying the long side if prices target $13.65/$13.68 trendline support. Good support for Nov beans on further weakness is $12.03, which is the prev. contract high before the rally, and a good place to begin to cover a partial short.
trendline support: $13.68/$13.70
resistance: $13.92/$13.98
possible range: much the same
May Soyoil: New contract highs were placed yesterday at 5095c, and a very strong ADX reading at 42. Pullbacks should be used to cover a short, price, or own for more upside. Very good support is located at 48c, which is trendline, but interim support is 4850c. The market put in a nice bounce off this level, so would look for prices to perhaps keep this low in place for congestive trade from 4850c to 4950c. Overall trading range has moved up to a possible 48c-51 or 52c level.
first support: 4850c
resistance: 4914/4925c
possible range: much the same
May Corn: The overall trading range is from $5.25 to $5.72, and key support today is $5.40. If this level is violated, would look for sell-stops to trigger trade down to $5.35. Visual trendline support does cross from $5.39-$5.40, so would be watching to see if it can hold when all the other markets are under pressure. IF it can hold $5.40, would price, own, or cover a short.
first support: $5.39/$5.41
resistance: $5.45/$5.48
possible range: much the same
May Wheat: Sideways trading range with a run above $6.80, but resistance once again returning to the $6.75/$6.80 level. Good support under the market on a further break is $6.50. Would continue to straddle/strangle this market with perhaps an upside exit, as the chart still shows a series of higher lows.
first support: $6.55/$6.60
resistance: $6.68/$6.70
possible range; much the same
MAY MEAL
The major direction has been sideways from $417.00-$440.00 but crossing below multiple lows at $417.00 suggests that the chart has further potential to break down. On Jan 25 the low before the rally to $440.00 was $413.00 and also serves as trendline support. The ADX has dropped to a weak 17, meaning that prices could hold should we see $413.00 traded. If needing to price, would exercise some patience at this point, and wait to see if prices can trade below the current $20.00 sideways range which was from $420.00-$440.00. If so, best support is located from $395.00-$405.00, and the close under $413.00 targets this level.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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