SPREADS
March crush trades down to 98c/bu while oilshare is 35.45%, correcting still from its highs over 36%. Corn spreads are firmer with July/Dec trading into 1 1/4c from 2 1/2c, and March/May trading into 6 1/2c from 6 3/4c. Bean spreads are also on the firm side with July/Nov trading into 1 1/2c from 3 1/4c. March wheat/corn spread trades from 1.70 3/4c up to 1.79c. March/May meal trades from $4.20 to $4.30.
PALM OIL
March down 74 ringgits.
NEWS
Stocks are up 7 pts higher with crude oil trading up to $58.72/barrel, and the US dollar trading up to 97.56.
CALLS
Calls today are as follows:
beans: 1 1/2-2 higher
meal: 2.20-2.50 higher
soyoil: 30-35 lower
corn: 1/2-1 higher
wheat: 4-6 higher
canola: .30-.80 lower
BUSINESS
USDA reports 120,000 mt of beans sold to unknown in 2020/21.
In the Egyptian tender, Russian wheat was the lowest price for offers, according to traders. The USDA forecasts that Egypt will import 12.5 mmt of grain for 19/20.
TECHNICALS
March Corn: Prices in a sideways trading range but finding good support on pullbacks now, moving to the highest end resistance at $3.92. Can play the range but the market continues to have trouble getting over resistance at market tops. If wanting to sell this market, would do so around $3.92 with a very tight buy-stop in place, as the market inability to break and close low end suggested that $3.75 is a good value level.
first support: $3.87
resistance: $3.92
possible range: much the same or higher
March Wheat: Strong technical price action but up against major resistance at $5.70. Good support now moves up to $5.50 from $5.45, and the market has the best chance for clearing $5.70 today given the continued up-trend which remains intact and strong.
first support: $5.60
resistance: $5.69/$5.73
possible range: much the same
March Beans: Congestive trade continues with multiple lows now being placed at $9.35. This level is also close to a 38% Fib retracement of $9.33, and the longer the market can retain and post lows the better chance it has for a rally to prev. highs.
first support: $9.38
resistance: $9.45/$9.48
possible range: much the same
March Meal: Sideways trade from $295.00-$310.00 and clearing the 100-day moving average of $305.00 was impressive. Look for the market to trend back towards its tops at $307.50 but may have trouble moving over this level. However, the trade higher from lower sets a further rally in motion.
first support: $303.00
resistance: $307.50
possible range: much the same
March Soyoil: Correcting still from its contract highs of 3567c and is often inclined to set back about 200 pts from peaks. The market has arrived at the first good place of support, therefore, with trade at 3350c, and if short would opt to take something off the table. However, the new lows could see potential follow-through, and a low end close suggests we test 3350c once again at some point to see if it can hold a correction downward.
key support: 3345c to 3550c
resistance: 3380c to 3390c
possible range: much the same
MARCH CORN
Prices remain in sideways trade, but turned higher from lower this morning which is constructive. The trend still remains weak with an ADX reading of 13, meaning there is little follow-through to either side. However, in that corn had a constructive day post report and continues to be well bid would look to now head to the top of the range at $3.92 for another test of the highest level of the trading range. Upside target over $3.95 is $4.05.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America