SPREADS

March crush trades down to 98c/bu while oilshare is still firm at 34.53%.   The January roll continues with Jan/March beans trading out to 14 1/2c from 13 3/4c, and March/May from 13 1/4c to 13 3/4c.  March/May corn weakens out to 6c from 5 3/4c, while Dec/March trades out to 13 3/4c before closing at 11 3/4c.  March wheat/corn trades from 1.51c down to 1.43 1/2c.  March/May meal trades from $3.20 out to $3.70.  

PALM OIL

Feb. down 21 ringgits and cash off $10/mt to $712.50/mt.   Prices are lower in early trading and could cool off even more after running ahead of fundamentals, CGS-CIMB stated.  

NEWS

Stocks are 27 pts lower as the trade awaits the Fed decision about interest rates.  Crude breaks to $58.81/barrel while the US dollar firms to 97.59.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  1/2-1 lower

meal:  80-1.00 lower

soyoil:  10-15 lower

corn:  1/2 lower

wheat:  1 1/2-2 lower

canola:  .80-1.00 lower

BUSINESS

USDA reported 585,000 mt of beans sold to China for 2019/20.   

USDA reported 140,000 mt of beans sold to China for unknown.  

This has largely been priced into the market given the extent of the rally, but confirmation could turn beans higher on the day from lower.

TECHNICALS

March Beans:  Prices are sideways and forming a pennant pattern of trade in consolidation from $9.12-$9.16.  However, the fact that beans have not made much of a move to the lower side builds in more support from $9.11/$9.12 and is more suggestive that prices can head higher once more despite a weaker start.  If the market opens and holds $9.13 would look for potentially higher trade towards $9.19/$9.23.

first support: $9.13

resistance:  $9.17/$9.19

possible range: much the same or lower

Jan Soyoil:  Prices hit trendline resistance yesterday at 3180c which held for a corrective pullback.  On a weaker start 3175c-3180c becomes resistance again, and a pullback towards 31c could eventually take place.  However, if at any point the market challenges 3180c and trades above it would be long for a test of 3217c, highs now in place.

first support: 3125c/3130c

resistance:  3175c

possible range; much the same or higher

Jan Meal:  Prices are in a trading range from ctr lows of $292.60 up to $305.00.  After trading in an uptrend channel the market once more took out major support which leaves a test of ctr lows open.  However, think that a sell-off towards $295.00 is still a good pricing opportunity.

key support: $296.00

resistance:  $299.00

possible range: much the same

March Corn:  Prices sideways in a congestive price pattern.   If short, may want to consider lifting a partial position close to $3.75 as the market has been prone to higher price action, and keep the rest in case $3.75 it taken out.  Funds maintain a net short position and for now the sideways congestion is not rewarding.  Some resistance continues to build at slightly lower levels reinforcing $3.78/$3.79 as resistance.  A trade back over $3.80 would therefore have more potential to take price action back to $3.85.  

key support: $3.74 1/2-$3.75

resistance:  $3.77 1/2-$3.78

possible range; much the same or higher

March Wheat:  Prices continue to grind sideways but the market shows a tendency to head lower with rallies not holding together.  Prices will begin on key support once more at $5.20.  If the market can hold $5.20 would look for a corrective price rally.  

key support: $5.18/$5.20

resistance:  $5.25/$5.26

possible range: much the same

MARCH BEANS

Trading range for now is from $8.80 up to possible highs closer to $9.30.  The chart does show a good rally with only minor price congestion at the top which leaves the door open to a further rally from $9.10/$9.11 up to crossing moving averages from $9.19/$9.22.   If wanting to be short, have to see the tops in place from $9.15/$9.17 hold.  Could also straddle/strangle the range from $9.00-$9.30 given the recent run-up in prices.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America