SPREADS

July crush trades to 59.29c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.80%.  The July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.40 3/4c from 1.46 3/4c, while May/July trades down to 6 3/4c from 8 1/2c.   July/Dec meal trades from $18.10 to $19.50.  July/Dec corn trades from 58c to 60 1/4c, while May/July trades from 13 3/4c inverse from 13c.  May/July wheat trades from 2 1/2c inverse to 2c.  July wheat/corn trades from 77 3/4c to 70 3/4c.

PALM OIL

June up 43 ringtits at 3.845 ringgit/mt.  SGS forecast palm exports for March at 1.245 mmt vs. their Feb. export estimate at 1.052 mmt.

NEWS

Stocks are on the defensive, down 40 pts, with the US dollar firmer at 92.41.  Crude oil trades quietly with a low of $58.78/barrel.  The US trade deficit grew to a record $71.1 bln in Feb. as a decline in exports more than offset a slight dip in imports.  

CALLS

Calls are as follows:

beans:  3-5 higher

meal:  1.30-1.60 higher

soyoil:  10-14 higher

corn:  2 1/2-3 higher

wheat:  1 1/2-2 1/2 higher

canola:  2.30-2.50 higher (July)

BUSINESS

No business reported.

TECHNICALS

May Corn:  Overall trading range is from $5.45-$5.85.  Look for the market to most likely stay in this vicinity, though the report last week ratcheted the trading range higher than previously.  First support levels of support begin at $5.55, and we are going to see if the market will keep this intact from the start of the session.  Would look for good pullbacks to own, but the lower end of the range has probably moved up 10c given the new ctr highs last week.

first support: $5.53/$5.55

resistance:  $5.60-$5.63

possible range: much the same

May Wheat: Overall trading range is from $6.00-$6.35, using $6.15 as a pivot point.  This is still the best market in which to sell a rally, or straddle/strangle with downside exits.  Prices begin firm, but would not be surprised to see both sides of even trade.  Some unwinding of previous buy Chicago/sell KC may add weight to SRW price action today.

first support: $6.10/$6.11

resistance:  $6.20/$6.23

possible range: much the same

May Beans:  The market continues to build in gains from the $14.00 level but is a current $14.00-$14.35 market.  Look for continued resistance on a rally towards $14.33/$14.35 heading into Friday's report.  Overall trading range is from $14.00 - $14.60, and think the report last Friday solidified the lows at $14.00 more than anything.

first support; $14.20

resistance:  $14.30/$14.33

possible range: much the same 

May Meal: Overall trading range is from $395.00-$435.00.  The market had a peak rally to $433.70 after the report which took prices to the upside of a downtrend channel, and established good support from $395.00-$400.00.   For the moment, the chart appears ready to defend a new and higher level of support from $405.00 to $408.00.  Would look for the chance that meal could rally back over $411.00 again and keep the current trading range intact.

first support: $407.00

resistance:  $410.00 to $411.00

possible range: much the same

NOVEMBER BEANS

The market direction is higher with a new contract high at $12.85.  The vertical price rise now met with consolidation in the form of a bull flag, which is bullish.  The bull flag merely marks a period of time when the market is thinking before making its next move, but typically bull flags offer up bullish trends, and further new highs.  The blue resistance line at the top drawn off previous tops takes prices towards $13.00 - $13.25.  Though the ADX is weak at 21, higher trade to the upside of price congestion will find the trend strengthening.  Look for a likely increase in prices given the bull flag set-up.

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America