SPREADS
July oilshare rises to 38.65% and crush trades up to 59c/bu. Spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading up to 1.44 1/2c from 1.36 1/2c, and May/July bean inverse trading up to 7 1/2c from 5 1/4c. July/Dec meal inverse strengthens to $17.30 from $12.50 lows. July/Dec corn inverse trades from 51c closing at 55 1/2c, with a 56 1/2c high. May/July corn trades up to 14 3/4c from 13c. July wheat/corn spread trades from 64 1/4c to 60 1/4c.
PALM OIL
June up 53 ringgits ending at 3,792.00 ringgit/mt.
NEWS
Equities are lower this AM, down 40 ringgits, as the G20 convenes to discuss the uneven covid-19 recovery. The IMF forecast US GDP to grow at 6.4% in 2021 vs. 5.1% forecast back in January. Crude oil traded down to $58.62/barrel, while the US dollar is weaker this morning falling to 92.51.
CALLS
Calls are as follows:
beans: 14-16 higher
meal: 4.80-5.20 higher
soyoil: 80-90 hihger
corn: 5-6 higher
wheat: 3-4 higher
canola: 1.20-1.50 higher (July)
What to look for today? Prices concluded near the top end of the trading range, so would look for further gains after the open.
BUSINESS
No business reported.
TECHNICALS
May Corn: Prices appear ready to be moving into a $5.50-$5.65 trading range. Pullbacks are likely to see support, and would look for the $5.55 level to now offer up good support in market action that could trend back towards ctr highs of $5.85 at some point. The ADX is weak at 20, meaning there is a lack of trend, but all in all the presence of a new ctr high is supportive for price action. The market is neither overbought nor oversold, adding to morning strength.
first support: $5.55
resistance: $5.63 to $5.65
possible range: $5.58 - $5.65
May Wheat: Prices are in a trading range from recent lows of $5.93 to $6.35. Prices begin towards the higher end of the trading range, however very good resistance could stall out a rally, and that point is located at $6.32 today. If short and the market moves over this level, would opt out and go long. For now, think a rally towards $6.32 will find it holding.
first support: $6.13/$6.15
resistance: $6.25/$6.28
possible range: much the same
May Beans: The overall trading range is from $14.00 - $14.60, the ctr high. The market is building on gains from $14.00 which is constructive behavior. Look for pullbacks to continue to see support based on positive technical activity alone. The market closed on its highs, so look for upside follow-through.
first support: $14.20
resistance: $14.35/$14.38
possible range: much the same
May Meal: Prices closed into the 100-day moving average of $411.00, and therefore could spark a further rally upward. The chart is based out at $395.00-$400.00, with an upside exit out of a previous down-trend channel. Look for meal to probably continue to under-perform, but if needing to price a pullback towards $408.00 would be a good chance to do so.
first support: $407.00-$408.00
resistance: $411.00 - $413.00
possible range: $409.00-$412.00 or higher
May Soyoil: Prices hit a major low at 5022c, bounced higher, with a rise over previous peak highs at 5315c. This would be a good place to own the market if prices were to pull back there. However, it is more likely that we top 54c for a renewed 52c-56c trading range. Primary direction is higher once again, and the market remains well bid. First support moves up to 5320c, and would opt out of a short or try the long side if we see it.
lower support: 5315/5320c
resistance: 54c-5420c
possible range: much the same
JULY WHEAT
Overall trading range is from recent lows of $5.93 to a peak high trade of $6.28 3/4. The market is forming new trendline support on the chart which would find support at $6.15, and resistance at the 50-day moving average of $6.35. The ADX trend remains weak at 21, meaning we do not find much follow-through at the market tops and bottoms. For now the chart is slightly more constructive as long as prices can stay above $6.15. Would probably cover a short unless we take out and trade under $6.10, but the "v" shaped bottom is more bullish.
TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, Wheat, North America
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