World Perspectives

Trade Economics and GDP

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last Friday. That estimate is subject to further revisions on 30 May. Of note are the following factors:  GDP growth came in far higher than pre-report expectations. GDP growth tends to be slower in the first quarter than in the other three quarters of the year, averaging 1.7 percent since 2010 versus 2.5 percent, respectively. Trade was the largest contributor to GDP growth despite the economic uncertainty on several fronts (e.g., USMCA, China, etc.). The trade aspect of the recent GDP report will undoubtedly be discussed extensively in the media (and on Twitter) given Preside...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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