World Perspectives
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USDA’s June WASDE

June WASDEs typically provide few surprises and little market movement. Taken individually, not one of USDA’s new estimates and projections is very surprising. Collectively, they emphasize a trend that markets have been slow to acknowledge, which is that U.S. and world supplies of grain and soybeans have declined in 2017/18 and are almost certain to decrease further in 2018/19. This has sponsored a generally bullish reaction from futures markets. The tables below show the key numbers from the June WASDE released today. Please note that all those for 2018/19 (except for U.S. wheat production) are USDA projections rather than estimates. USDA estimates combined U.S. ending stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat will be 3.687 billion bush...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The Sunday evening markets held the same trend they have had for several weeks now. Corn and soybean futures were steady to slightly higher with wheat lower. They then gained a little more strength at this morning’s opening, and that brought wheat slightly closer to unchanged. U.S. Corn B...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Smile! $4.00 Corn Futures Ahead?

The options market has correctly foreseen corn futures’ march higher since mid-September and is signaling this rally isn’t over year. The corn and SRW wheat markets are leaning bullish while the implied volatilities from soybeans offer a more neutral outlook. For live cattle futures...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The Sunday evening markets held the same trend they have had for several weeks now. Corn and soybean futures were steady to slightly higher with wheat lower. They then gained a little more strength at this morning’s opening, and that brought wheat slightly closer to unchanged. U.S. Corn B...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil Soybean markets were very slow everywhere last week with suppliers expecting the Chinese to return and actively purchase from South America to fill the gap until their new crop. However, the drop in Asian crush margins deterred them. The decline in Dalian futures combined with t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Smile! $4.00 Corn Futures Ahead?

The options market has correctly foreseen corn futures’ march higher since mid-September and is signaling this rally isn’t over year. The corn and SRW wheat markets are leaning bullish while the implied volatilities from soybeans offer a more neutral outlook. For live cattle futures...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Things Aren’t So Great in Brazil Either

There are stories almost daily about how low prices are causing pain for farmers across the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China trade dispute is an issue in some Farm Belt states because it has driven soybean prices down. Corn and wheat also dropped in sympathy with soybeans. However, U.S farmers ha...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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