The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting this to be that kind of a year. There are other anomalies, such as 2014 when the August WASDE increased the soybean number but reduced production of corn.  Just taking the larger number of recent years in which crops progressed well, the corn production number increased an average 2.46 percent from the July to August WASDE reports; for soybeans, it was a more robust 4.6 percent increase. Taking those average changes, USDA’s 12 August WASDE c...

TAGS – Feed Grains, Soy & Oilseeds, North America