Key Takeaways
Weather conditions in China and India are deteriorating and threatening the wheat crops. Drought conditions in China are not without precedent, and modeling efforts suggest a modest 1.5 percent yield reduction vs. 2025. India’s wheat yields are forecast to fall 3 percent and pare back production to 116.3 MMT. China’s wheat demand is likely to contract slightly due to poor livestock profitability and reduced human consumption. China’s wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecast to be only slightly less massive than normal, suggesting no serious supply shortage risk. WPI’s supply and consumption forecasts indicate no threat to either Chinese or Indian supplies for 2026/27 and limited risk of dynam...
What You Need to Know Today: As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00 percent, its first rate increase since 2023, as policymakers respond to persistent inflation pressures. The Fed also signaled that additi...
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 September 2026 During the first week of September, the Russian grain market remained volatile but predominantly bearish. Among the few commodities that continued to show a bullish trend was rye, which is in short supply this year and has few offers available. I...
