World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 17 January 2022 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well and we wish everyone an enjoyable weekend. The next Ag Perspectives report will be issued Tuesday, 18 January. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

biofuel

RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook

Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...

WFH Productivity; USMCA Rift

WFH Productivity There have been plenty of studies about the impacts on productivity of work from home (WFH) during COVID. They usually show mixed results depending on the work, the company and the employee’s personal situation. An informal look at the federal government during WFH has a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Guessing La Niña

This year’s La Niña event has been categorized as historically a moderate one. The rains coming to parts of South America this weekend attest to it not being a historically strong event. However, this makes guessing its final impact on crops more challenging to assess. Another chal...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

livestock

Livestock Round-Up: WASDE Livestock Outlook

Last week we noted the impact of Omicron on slaughter rates; as of today, cattle slaughter is up about 1 percent, hog slaughter is down about 3.5 percent, both compared to the same period last week. Both are down considerably from last year, however. Cattle slaughter is running 3.7 percent belo...

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans

Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-line with expectations, elicited a swift, selloff reaction from the markets after its release, as the USDA increased ending stocks for all t...

Workers of World United

The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...

What’s in a Name; Going Industrial; New Analytical Approach

What’s in a Name Proponents of geographic indicators in Europe are upset that DG-Agri may be planning to hand over more regulatory oversight of the GI scheme to the EU’s Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). GIs already carry intellectual property protection, but some fear the EUIPO...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Reverses Course, Falls in December With pork prices continuing to remain well below their averages from a year ago, food costs on aggregate fell by 1.2 percent in December. That reverses course from November when food inflation climbed by 1.6 percent, the first upt...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian grain market. Due to the political situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian ruble got weaker and domestic prices expressed in U.S. dollar decre...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening

Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder of that was the joint announcement by USDA and USTR yesterday that India has opened its market to U.S. pork.   According to a sta...

livestock

Fake Pork Trade; Humoring Russia

Fake Pork Trade USTR Katherine Tai announced that bilateral negotiations had resulted in India opening its market to imports of U.S. pork. This past year, Americans bought on average $21 apiece worth of food from India. By contrast, U.S. agricultural exports to India totaled the equivalent of $...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  MEA region grain importers will face lower Russian export quotas in 2022 – 8 MMT of wheat and a total of 3 MMT for barley, corn, and rye. The initial quota period is from 15 February to 30 June and is a decrease over the origin...

soy-oilseeds

Three-Year Rebuild

The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in 2021 was down around 5 percent from the historical average, but the lowest since 2016.  Malaysian palm oil exports were down nearly 11...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower

CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into soybean and corn futures while they unwound long soy/corn versus wheat spreads. Position squaring and spread trade was dominant today with...

Beef with Oil; Carbon Trouble

Beef with Oil The Biden Administration dislikes the oil industry as much or more than Big Beef. After stating the goals of ending drilling on public lands, blocking some new pipelines and then watching fuel prices skyrocket, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain talked about banning oil and gas...

Fat Cats

Investors are most interested in maximizing their return on capital. It is notable that across 97 different industries, the agrifood sector is a mixed bag. Tobacco is tops across all industries, not just food and agriculture. Other highly protected industries at the top include shoes and steel...

biofuel

EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade

On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December.   The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat and corn prices by creating a “trust fund” for domestic market consumption. Exporters will have to contribute about $150 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s grain exports for MY 2021/22 total 33.5 MMT, up 23 percent from the same period last year. Of that, wheat accounts for 24.5 MMT with corn exports totaling 30.9 MMT and barely totaling 5.2 MMT.  Milling Wheat  The two biggest wheat market surprises t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal

The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical resistance and uncovered a wealth of buy-stops that carried the markets higher into the close. Market chatter suggests index funds started thei...

A Different Kind of Inflation in 2021

The U.S. has not used the gold standard since 1933, when the Emergency Banking Act forced Americans to give up gold and convert their holdings to dollars. Since then, there have been “gold bugs” advocating for a return to the gold standard. Their argument? A gold standard prevents g...

Real Food Sovereignty; Obesity Solutions

Real Food Sovereignty Activists and their populist politicians in rich, developed countries have an answer for reforming agriculture – small farms using extensive practices such as fewer chemical inputs. Thus it is interesting to see the contrasting policy from Algeria which desperately w...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Topsy Turvey

Corn and cattle opened down but settled up; soyoil opened up but closed down with the rest of the complex; and wheat never saw the light of day. The rationale for the doldrums at the open was news of a March increase in the Federal Funds rate. That would reduce liquidity and inflation, starving...

Mistakes on All Sides

Russian President Vladimir Putin complains that NATO is a threat to Russia and seeks a buffer to establish states but the nations he wants to isolate from the west are all more frightened of Russian authority. Russia is literally driving the buffer states to want to join NATO. Similarly, the mo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Tunisian officials say the country has sufficient stocks of soft wheat, durum, and barley to cover all requirements until May 2022. Pakistan wheat flour prices have increased by about 15 percent due to the recent ban on the interprov...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

The CBOT/CME markets will be closed Monday, 17 January 2022 in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. WPI’s offices will be closed as well and we wish everyone an enjoyable weekend. The next Ag Perspectives report will be issued Tuesday, 18 January. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

biofuel

RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook

Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...

WFH Productivity; USMCA Rift

WFH Productivity There have been plenty of studies about the impacts on productivity of work from home (WFH) during COVID. They usually show mixed results depending on the work, the company and the employee’s personal situation. An informal look at the federal government during WFH has a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Guessing La Niña

This year’s La Niña event has been categorized as historically a moderate one. The rains coming to parts of South America this weekend attest to it not being a historically strong event. However, this makes guessing its final impact on crops more challenging to assess. Another chal...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

livestock

Livestock Round-Up: WASDE Livestock Outlook

Last week we noted the impact of Omicron on slaughter rates; as of today, cattle slaughter is up about 1 percent, hog slaughter is down about 3.5 percent, both compared to the same period last week. Both are down considerably from last year, however. Cattle slaughter is running 3.7 percent belo...

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans

Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-line with expectations, elicited a swift, selloff reaction from the markets after its release, as the USDA increased ending stocks for all t...

Workers of World United

The analytics company CultureX says that people are more likely to quit their jobs due to a toxic workplace culture than due to their salary. That may be true but a Bain & Company survey of 20,000 workers in ten countries found that compensation was the number one issue for employees. This...

What’s in a Name; Going Industrial; New Analytical Approach

What’s in a Name Proponents of geographic indicators in Europe are upset that DG-Agri may be planning to hand over more regulatory oversight of the GI scheme to the EU’s Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). GIs already carry intellectual property protection, but some fear the EUIPO...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Reverses Course, Falls in December With pork prices continuing to remain well below their averages from a year ago, food costs on aggregate fell by 1.2 percent in December. That reverses course from November when food inflation climbed by 1.6 percent, the first upt...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian grain market. Due to the political situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian ruble got weaker and domestic prices expressed in U.S. dollar decre...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening

Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder of that was the joint announcement by USDA and USTR yesterday that India has opened its market to U.S. pork.   According to a sta...

livestock

Fake Pork Trade; Humoring Russia

Fake Pork Trade USTR Katherine Tai announced that bilateral negotiations had resulted in India opening its market to imports of U.S. pork. This past year, Americans bought on average $21 apiece worth of food from India. By contrast, U.S. agricultural exports to India totaled the equivalent of $...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  MEA region grain importers will face lower Russian export quotas in 2022 – 8 MMT of wheat and a total of 3 MMT for barley, corn, and rye. The initial quota period is from 15 February to 30 June and is a decrease over the origin...

soy-oilseeds

Three-Year Rebuild

The price of palm oil has been rising since the start of 2021, reaching a local price roughly double the average of the previous dozen years. Production in 2021 was down around 5 percent from the historical average, but the lowest since 2016.  Malaysian palm oil exports were down nearly 11...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower

CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into soybean and corn futures while they unwound long soy/corn versus wheat spreads. Position squaring and spread trade was dominant today with...

Beef with Oil; Carbon Trouble

Beef with Oil The Biden Administration dislikes the oil industry as much or more than Big Beef. After stating the goals of ending drilling on public lands, blocking some new pipelines and then watching fuel prices skyrocket, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain talked about banning oil and gas...

Fat Cats

Investors are most interested in maximizing their return on capital. It is notable that across 97 different industries, the agrifood sector is a mixed bag. Tobacco is tops across all industries, not just food and agriculture. Other highly protected industries at the top include shoes and steel...

biofuel

EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade

On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December.   The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat and corn prices by creating a “trust fund” for domestic market consumption. Exporters will have to contribute about $150 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s grain exports for MY 2021/22 total 33.5 MMT, up 23 percent from the same period last year. Of that, wheat accounts for 24.5 MMT with corn exports totaling 30.9 MMT and barely totaling 5.2 MMT.  Milling Wheat  The two biggest wheat market surprises t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal

The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical resistance and uncovered a wealth of buy-stops that carried the markets higher into the close. Market chatter suggests index funds started thei...

A Different Kind of Inflation in 2021

The U.S. has not used the gold standard since 1933, when the Emergency Banking Act forced Americans to give up gold and convert their holdings to dollars. Since then, there have been “gold bugs” advocating for a return to the gold standard. Their argument? A gold standard prevents g...

Real Food Sovereignty; Obesity Solutions

Real Food Sovereignty Activists and their populist politicians in rich, developed countries have an answer for reforming agriculture – small farms using extensive practices such as fewer chemical inputs. Thus it is interesting to see the contrasting policy from Algeria which desperately w...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Topsy Turvey

Corn and cattle opened down but settled up; soyoil opened up but closed down with the rest of the complex; and wheat never saw the light of day. The rationale for the doldrums at the open was news of a March increase in the Federal Funds rate. That would reduce liquidity and inflation, starving...

Mistakes on All Sides

Russian President Vladimir Putin complains that NATO is a threat to Russia and seeks a buffer to establish states but the nations he wants to isolate from the west are all more frightened of Russian authority. Russia is literally driving the buffer states to want to join NATO. Similarly, the mo...

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