World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

farm-inputs

Exporting Water

The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is coming to an end, per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The yield averaged 8.1 MT/ha and total production came in at 50 MMT. This is the first time that corn production exceeded soybeans in Argentina. This year’s harvest progress was also very quick,...

Policy Round Up: COVID Legislation; Aluminum Tariffs; Restaurant Performance

COVID Relief: Today was the target deadline for the next COVID relief package; that is not going to happen. Neither the Senate or House was in session today but are subject to a one-day recall back for a vote if necessary. Negotiations continue but progress is not being made. The hang-ups are t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey

Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

WASDE Probability

The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting th...

The Global Future

Politicians can make a mess of things, but policymakers typically seek to solve problems. Politicians proclaim a new cold war between China and the U.S.; policymakers see it as a dysfunctional historical period that must be led back to equilibrium.    The Chinese are happy with their...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Records

Records are being set in lots of places and not in a good way if you are a bull. There will be record wheat in Canada and India and projected record corn and soybean crops next season in Brazil. Farmers not selling now to clean out bins are ignoring the fact that seasonal lows may not yet be hi...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 6 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: June Meat Exports; COVID-19 Impact on Mexican Beef Sector

The June meat export totals were released by USDA today, with pork, broilers and beef all showing a drop from May and big drops from the 2020 high point in March. Only pork was up year-over-year, mostly on large volumes shipped to China. In June, China accounted for a third of all exports, but...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation

The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day.  The Wall...

Organic versus Conventional Face-Off

A few members of the U.S. Congress have drafted legislation to restrict the use of farm chemicals based on organophosphates and neonicotinoids. The authors claim these chemicals remain on the market “even when scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows that a pesticide is causing harm to pe...

Gold Price Spike

The value of gold has surpassed $2,000/troy ounce for the first time. It has climbed 32 percent in value thus far this year and, given the dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, it is likely to rise some more, eventually hitting a correction. The last peak in value was in 2011. The price of gol...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Ministry of Agriculture Data Shows Hog Recovery on Track According to the latest market surveys from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), through this past June the country’s sow and live hog inventories are recovering at a steady pace. At the halfway...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

What is the Exit Strategy for Ad Hoc Farm Payments?

The 2018 farm bill was signed into law in December of that year and implementing rules were rolled out through 2019. The major crop programs, like ARC and PLC for example, saw participation elections and signups in the fall of 2019 and CRP general sign up began in December 2019. These and other...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  News from the Middle East and North Africa is limited this week due to the Eid al Adha holidays in the area – the holiday is normally four or five days, depending on the country. The World Bank is providing $202 million for the...

feed-grains

Yield versus Exporting

U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 3 August)

Update for 3 August 2020:  The app contains a large volume of data, so please be patient while it loads.  Also, if you have any feedback about the app, we're always appreciative of thoughtful suggestions!   ...

Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage

Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats.  The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...

biofuel livestock

Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol

The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.    Thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Weather conditions are still working against the 2020/21 wheat crop. Planting activity, mostly focused in the South of Buenos Aires, is moving slowly (1.8 percent weakly progress) due to excess soil moisture. Almost 95 percent of the expected area (6.5 Mha) is planted, but farmers are hav...

Ag Prices Creeping Up, Economic Growth Cratered

There’s been a lot of economic data released this week, most of it bearish and some of it unprecedented. Officially, the U.S. is in a recession, i.e. two quarters in a row of GDP contraction.   Starting in the farm economy, the June Agricultural Prices Received Index (based on 2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

July finished with a fizzle at the CBOT, with buy wheat/sell corn spreads pressuring the feed grain while soybeans firmed on expectations of continued export sales next week. The only real action was in soyoil and livestock futures, with the former jumping higher and breaking technical resistan...

soy-oilseeds wheat livestock

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently comp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Recession Impacts on Trade

Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...

farm-inputs

Exporting Water

The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is coming to an end, per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The yield averaged 8.1 MT/ha and total production came in at 50 MMT. This is the first time that corn production exceeded soybeans in Argentina. This year’s harvest progress was also very quick,...

Policy Round Up: COVID Legislation; Aluminum Tariffs; Restaurant Performance

COVID Relief: Today was the target deadline for the next COVID relief package; that is not going to happen. Neither the Senate or House was in session today but are subject to a one-day recall back for a vote if necessary. Negotiations continue but progress is not being made. The hang-ups are t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey

Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

WASDE Probability

The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting th...

The Global Future

Politicians can make a mess of things, but policymakers typically seek to solve problems. Politicians proclaim a new cold war between China and the U.S.; policymakers see it as a dysfunctional historical period that must be led back to equilibrium.    The Chinese are happy with their...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Records

Records are being set in lots of places and not in a good way if you are a bull. There will be record wheat in Canada and India and projected record corn and soybean crops next season in Brazil. Farmers not selling now to clean out bins are ignoring the fact that seasonal lows may not yet be hi...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 6 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: June Meat Exports; COVID-19 Impact on Mexican Beef Sector

The June meat export totals were released by USDA today, with pork, broilers and beef all showing a drop from May and big drops from the 2020 high point in March. Only pork was up year-over-year, mostly on large volumes shipped to China. In June, China accounted for a third of all exports, but...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation

The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day.  The Wall...

Organic versus Conventional Face-Off

A few members of the U.S. Congress have drafted legislation to restrict the use of farm chemicals based on organophosphates and neonicotinoids. The authors claim these chemicals remain on the market “even when scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows that a pesticide is causing harm to pe...

Gold Price Spike

The value of gold has surpassed $2,000/troy ounce for the first time. It has climbed 32 percent in value thus far this year and, given the dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, it is likely to rise some more, eventually hitting a correction. The last peak in value was in 2011. The price of gol...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Ministry of Agriculture Data Shows Hog Recovery on Track According to the latest market surveys from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), through this past June the country’s sow and live hog inventories are recovering at a steady pace. At the halfway...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

What is the Exit Strategy for Ad Hoc Farm Payments?

The 2018 farm bill was signed into law in December of that year and implementing rules were rolled out through 2019. The major crop programs, like ARC and PLC for example, saw participation elections and signups in the fall of 2019 and CRP general sign up began in December 2019. These and other...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  News from the Middle East and North Africa is limited this week due to the Eid al Adha holidays in the area – the holiday is normally four or five days, depending on the country. The World Bank is providing $202 million for the...

feed-grains

Yield versus Exporting

U.S. corn farmers out-yield their competitors but then lose to the competition’s lower prices. Similarly, Vietnam has the highest rice yields in Southeast Asia but fails to compete with Thailand in exporting despite the latter having the smallest yield in the region. According to industry...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 3 August)

Update for 3 August 2020:  The app contains a large volume of data, so please be patient while it loads.  Also, if you have any feedback about the app, we're always appreciative of thoughtful suggestions!   ...

Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage

Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats.  The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...

biofuel livestock

Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol

The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.    Thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Weather conditions are still working against the 2020/21 wheat crop. Planting activity, mostly focused in the South of Buenos Aires, is moving slowly (1.8 percent weakly progress) due to excess soil moisture. Almost 95 percent of the expected area (6.5 Mha) is planted, but farmers are hav...

Ag Prices Creeping Up, Economic Growth Cratered

There’s been a lot of economic data released this week, most of it bearish and some of it unprecedented. Officially, the U.S. is in a recession, i.e. two quarters in a row of GDP contraction.   Starting in the farm economy, the June Agricultural Prices Received Index (based on 2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

July finished with a fizzle at the CBOT, with buy wheat/sell corn spreads pressuring the feed grain while soybeans firmed on expectations of continued export sales next week. The only real action was in soyoil and livestock futures, with the former jumping higher and breaking technical resistan...

soy-oilseeds wheat livestock

CFTC COT Report Analysis

  The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently comp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Recession Impacts on Trade

Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...

Select Filters to Apply

  • Markets
  • World

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up