Recent Equities Analysis
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...