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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...

equities

Historical Coronavirus Impacts

While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S.  The day session featured more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

  After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...

equities

Historical Coronavirus Impacts

While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S.  The day session featured more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

  After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...

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