Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0325/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.135/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $322/short ton, down $2.3 from...
Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown
USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of intended planting has changed. Consider, 1 March planting intentions had indicated there would be 92.8 million acres of corn this year. That...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.5475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1275/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $324.3/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Southeast Europe and Black Sea wheat markets are mostly steady to start the week despite rising prices in France, Germany and the U.S. The Black Sea region has been under a hot/dry weather pattern that has yet to create significant concerns for the wheat crop there. Soil moistures...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.9675/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, up $1.8 from yest...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales for the 2019/2020 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 47,600 MT metric tons, resulting increases for Japan (112,100 MT, including 11,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (75,300 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Taiwan (56,7...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.88/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $321.7/short ton, up $2.2 from yesterd...
Uncertainty Reigns
Despite the plethora of new data sources such as crop tours, field surveys, satellite imagery and the numerous forecasts they support, there is still great uncertainty about the global crop supply. The influential combination of climate change and genetics presents enough doubts about the real...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.78/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $319.5/short ton, up $5.1 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 June 2019 Prices on the domestic market continued to either decrease moderately or remain stable in RUB expression. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) rose slightly in their bottom segment to $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, while that average price...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up as Crushing Activity Increases With feed demand continuing to show solid improvement through the first full week of June, soybean crushers have steadily ramped up activity. Last week China’s estimated soymeal inventory had its largest gain this year, rising 9...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.5925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1 from yest...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.41/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2225/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0325/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $316.9/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.4975/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.315/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.135/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $322/short ton, down $2.3 from...
Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown
USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of intended planting has changed. Consider, 1 March planting intentions had indicated there would be 92.8 million acres of corn this year. That...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.5475/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.395/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1275/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $324.3/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat Southeast Europe and Black Sea wheat markets are mostly steady to start the week despite rising prices in France, Germany and the U.S. The Black Sea region has been under a hot/dry weather pattern that has yet to create significant concerns for the wheat crop there. Soil moistures...
No Growth Out of Bear Market
Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.53/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.385/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.9675/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $323.5/short ton, up $1.8 from yest...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales for the 2019/2020 marketing year, which began June 1, totaled 47,600 MT metric tons, resulting increases for Japan (112,100 MT, including 11,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (75,300 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Taiwan (56,7...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.355/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.88/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $321.7/short ton, up $2.2 from yesterd...
Uncertainty Reigns
Despite the plethora of new data sources such as crop tours, field surveys, satellite imagery and the numerous forecasts they support, there is still great uncertainty about the global crop supply. The influential combination of climate change and genetics presents enough doubts about the real...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.2625/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.78/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $319.5/short ton, up $5.1 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 June 2019 Prices on the domestic market continued to either decrease moderately or remain stable in RUB expression. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) rose slightly in their bottom segment to $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, while that average price...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up as Crushing Activity Increases With feed demand continuing to show solid improvement through the first full week of June, soybean crushers have steadily ramped up activity. Last week China’s estimated soymeal inventory had its largest gain this year, rising 9...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Summary of Futures
Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.2775/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.5925/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 19 Soymeal closed at $314.4/short ton, up $1 from yest...