Recent Feed Grains Analysis
PM Post - Profit-taking
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 7 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 2 1/4 higher Prices opened as expected with soyoil futures trading into the red at the start of the day and overbought charts prompting ea...
AM Outlook - Buying the Open
GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it. The continuing reports of Chinese business has its corollary year based in 2016, also a very big bean buying year that saw the bean/corn ratio strengthen through...
Technical Views - Technically Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%. Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c from 15c. Nov/Jan beans trades back into 2 3/4c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/2c from 7c. Dec wheat/corn trades fr...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.285/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, up $9.6 fro...
PM Post - Still No Reversal
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/4 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 1 14/ lower December wheat: 1 3/4 lower The markets opened as called and jumped either side of even with beans and corn supported by good export sales and more bus...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 335,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 1,609,200 MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for unknown destinations (360,200 MT), China (359,700 MT, including 140,0...
AM Outlook - Lower Open on Profit-taking
GOOD MORNING, Prices were stronger with beans rallying higher as more rumors of Chinese business hit the wires. The outlook for China's bean and corn imports continues to be friendly for prices, particularly since China's production outlook was lowered due to multiple typhoons impacting c...
Technical Views - Market Support
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88.99c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.91%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 16 1/2c back out to 18 3/4c. Dec/March corn trades from 8 3/4c to 9 1/4c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 3 3/4c to 4 1/2c. Dec/March meal from $1.10 out to $2.00. Dec w...
More Questions for Grain Markets
Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7175/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $325.7/short ton, up $6.5 fro...
PM Post - Bull Run Continues
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/2 higher December meal; 3.90 higher December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 1 1/2 lower The markets turned higher after the start of the trading session with beans in the lead again. December soyo...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an increase in the central government’s direct subsidy to major live hog production counties. The new policy will increase the annual am...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the regions where the old harvested corn was sold and decreased in the regions that started quoting prices for 2020 corn. Export milling wheat...
AM Outlook - Good Bull Markets Take Breaks
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers across the board yesterday on overbought concerns and the fact that for once beans could not turn the rally back to new contract highs. But all good bull markets need and deserve a break. Funds sold modest amounts across the board, not challengin...
Technical Views - Mixed Day
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 89.25c/bu while oilshare trades lower down to 34.66%. Dec/Dec corn trades slightly weaker from 20 1/2c to 22 1/4c, while Dec/March narrows into 9 1/2c from 10c. Nov/Jan beans trade from 4c to 4 3/4c after firming into 2 1/2c. Dec/March meal trades f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming
Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower as the focus turns to the large U.S. harvest and overbought technical conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is starting and early yield results...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.66/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.915/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
PM Post - Appropriate Corrections
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 3/4 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 4 3/4 lower The markets opened as called but the expectation for increased harvest and overbought markets sent prices into a badly needed round of profit-ta...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...
AM Outlook - Still Firm
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to remain well bid with no reversal signals in sight. China continues to be around the market, Black Sea vegoil values are rising, and dryness in various parts of the world continue to add to worries over production. Funds continue to own the market in...
Technical Views - Give and Take
SPREADS November crush trades to 74.68c/bu while oilshare is slightly over 35.0% to 35.12%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 19 1/2c to 20 1/2c, while Dec/March trades from 9 1/4c to 9 1/2c. Nov/Jan beans trade out to 4 1/2c from 3 1/2c, while the Jan/March inverse trades weaker from 1 3/4c...
PM Post - Profit-taking
THE OPEN November beans: 9 higher December meal: 3.50 higher December soyoil: 7 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 2 1/4 higher Prices opened as expected with soyoil futures trading into the red at the start of the day and overbought charts prompting ea...
AM Outlook - Buying the Open
GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it. The continuing reports of Chinese business has its corollary year based in 2016, also a very big bean buying year that saw the bean/corn ratio strengthen through...
Technical Views - Technically Higher
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%. Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c from 15c. Nov/Jan beans trades back into 2 3/4c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/2c from 7c. Dec wheat/corn trades fr...
Market Commentary: Gambling on China
The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.285/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, up $9.6 fro...
PM Post - Still No Reversal
THE OPEN November beans: 2 1/4 lower December meal: .40 lower December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 1 14/ lower December wheat: 1 3/4 lower The markets opened as called and jumped either side of even with beans and corn supported by good export sales and more bus...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 335,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 1,609,200 MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for unknown destinations (360,200 MT), China (359,700 MT, including 140,0...
AM Outlook - Lower Open on Profit-taking
GOOD MORNING, Prices were stronger with beans rallying higher as more rumors of Chinese business hit the wires. The outlook for China's bean and corn imports continues to be friendly for prices, particularly since China's production outlook was lowered due to multiple typhoons impacting c...
Technical Views - Market Support
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88.99c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.91%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 16 1/2c back out to 18 3/4c. Dec/March corn trades from 8 3/4c to 9 1/4c. Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 3 3/4c to 4 1/2c. Dec/March meal from $1.10 out to $2.00. Dec w...
More Questions for Grain Markets
Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7175/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $325.7/short ton, up $6.5 fro...
PM Post - Bull Run Continues
THE OPEN November beans: 6 1/2 higher December meal; 3.90 higher December soyoil: 15 higher December corn: 1 higher December wheat: 1 1/2 lower The markets turned higher after the start of the trading session with beans in the lead again. December soyo...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an increase in the central government’s direct subsidy to major live hog production counties. The new policy will increase the annual am...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the regions where the old harvested corn was sold and decreased in the regions that started quoting prices for 2020 corn. Export milling wheat...
AM Outlook - Good Bull Markets Take Breaks
GOOD MORNING, Funds were net sellers across the board yesterday on overbought concerns and the fact that for once beans could not turn the rally back to new contract highs. But all good bull markets need and deserve a break. Funds sold modest amounts across the board, not challengin...
Technical Views - Mixed Day
SPREADS Dec crush trades to 89.25c/bu while oilshare trades lower down to 34.66%. Dec/Dec corn trades slightly weaker from 20 1/2c to 22 1/4c, while Dec/March narrows into 9 1/2c from 10c. Nov/Jan beans trade from 4c to 4 3/4c after firming into 2 1/2c. Dec/March meal trades f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming
Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower as the focus turns to the large U.S. harvest and overbought technical conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is starting and early yield results...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.66/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.3825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.915/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $319.2/short ton, down $2.8 f...
Rice Self-Sufficiency
It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire. Global rice trade hi...
PM Post - Appropriate Corrections
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 3/4 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 40 higher Dec corn: 1 1/2 lower Dec wheat: 4 3/4 lower The markets opened as called but the expectation for increased harvest and overbought markets sent prices into a badly needed round of profit-ta...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...
AM Outlook - Still Firm
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to remain well bid with no reversal signals in sight. China continues to be around the market, Black Sea vegoil values are rising, and dryness in various parts of the world continue to add to worries over production. Funds continue to own the market in...
Technical Views - Give and Take
SPREADS November crush trades to 74.68c/bu while oilshare is slightly over 35.0% to 35.12%. Dec/Dec corn trades from 19 1/2c to 20 1/2c, while Dec/March trades from 9 1/4c to 9 1/2c. Nov/Jan beans trade out to 4 1/2c from 3 1/2c, while the Jan/March inverse trades weaker from 1 3/4c...