Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 414,300 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021. Corn: Net sales of 361,100 MT for 2019/2020 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Soybeans: Net sales of 241,700 MT fo...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.435/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, down $0.4...
Where Have All the Acres Gone?
We recall commenting a short while ago that the fundamental outlook for corn and corn prices was relentlessly bearish. We cited a very large U.S. corn crop for the 2020/21 crop cycle that would push U.S. corn stocks to a burdensome level. Moreover, lagging domestic feed demand, stagnant e...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.505/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.99/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.6/short ton, up $8.7 from yest...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...
The PM POST: Achieving Technical Highs
THE OPEN: November beans: 6 1/4 higher December meal: 4.20 higher December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 7 higher September wheat: 3 1/4 higher The markets opened as called with further short-covering activity. Technically, the markets continued to trend upward into new trading range h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2020 The southern regions wheat and barley prices decreased as harvesting began. However, the decrease is not dramatic as the average yield now is lower than in 2019. In other regions, prices have not yet decreased. Meanwhile, on the export market, milling whea...
Technical Views - Reacting Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush trades at 77.44c/bu while oilshare weakens to 32.43%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 9c to 9 3/4c. Sep/Dec wheat narrows into 6 1/4c from 7 1/2c. Sep wheat/corn trades 1.52 1/2c. July/Dec corn trades from 10 3/4c to 11 3/4c, while July/Sep corn trades from 1...
AM Outlook - Digesting the Data
NOTE: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on 2 July. GOOD MORNING, Funds entered the June Quarterly Stocks/Acreage report with a record short corn position, short elsewhere, and long beans. The report was bullish acreage and bearish to neutral stocks. However, the overri...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish acreage report on Tuesday. The report featured a 6-million-acre decrease in total crop area from the agency’s March estimate. Most of th...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.415/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.8225/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $286.3/short ton, up $5.8 fro...
Where the Acres Went
Planted acres usually shift amongst crops but they do not typically go completely fallow, at least not to the scale in today’s USDA acreage report. Some shorts got caught with their pants down and took a beating today. The question is why farmers decided to let 6 million acres go idle com...
PM Post - Surprises Add Bang for the Buck
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 8 lower Sep. corn: 2 1/2 higher Sep. wheat: 1 1/2 higher The markets opened as called with initial selling pressure with grains at recent highs and beans/meal sitting on overall lows. Oilshar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Pakistan, it appears likely that the government will import as much as 1.4 MMT of wheat. International wheat prices to Pakistan are expected to be as much as 25 percent higher than the current price for local wheat. The government says...
Technical Views - Diverse Influences
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.74%. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 7-7 3/4c. The July/Dec corn spread trades from 8c to 8 3/4c while July/Sep trades from 1-3c carry. July/Nov bean inverse strengthens to 9 1/4c from 2 3/4c, while July /August trades...
AM Outlook - About to Get Smarter
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board to begin the day on a technical correction. The funds remain big grain shorts and near record corn shorts. Chatter is that China may have purchased US corn, and weather is trending warmer and drier next week. Current price...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. Short covering and position adjusting were the themes of CBOT trade on Monday, with corn and wheat turning higher while the soy complex was steady/weaker. Funds were aggressive net buyers o...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 June)
Update for 29 June 2020: The app contains a large volume of data, so please be patient while it loads. Also, if you have any feedback about the app, we're always appreciative of thoughtful suggestions! ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.865/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.665/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, down $1.6 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting progressed 13 percent last week with 71 percent of the expected area now seeded thanks to dry weather. There are still some areas in northern and western Argentina that need moisture before the crop can be seeded. Of what has been planted, most is rated normal or excellent...
PM Post - Retracement and Weather
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 lower December meal: .30 higher December soyoil: 6 lower September corn: 3 1/4 higher September wheat: 3 higher Prices opened on a mixed note today, with buying in oilshare and more position - evening in grains. Buy grains/s...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 414,300 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021. Corn: Net sales of 361,100 MT for 2019/2020 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Soybeans: Net sales of 241,700 MT fo...
Market Commentary
It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about. Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.435/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, down $0.4...
Where Have All the Acres Gone?
We recall commenting a short while ago that the fundamental outlook for corn and corn prices was relentlessly bearish. We cited a very large U.S. corn crop for the 2020/21 crop cycle that would push U.S. corn stocks to a burdensome level. Moreover, lagging domestic feed demand, stagnant e...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.505/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.99/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.6/short ton, up $8.7 from yest...
China In-Country Analysis
Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...
The PM POST: Achieving Technical Highs
THE OPEN: November beans: 6 1/4 higher December meal: 4.20 higher December soyoil: 3 lower December corn: 7 higher September wheat: 3 1/4 higher The markets opened as called with further short-covering activity. Technically, the markets continued to trend upward into new trading range h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 June 2020 The southern regions wheat and barley prices decreased as harvesting began. However, the decrease is not dramatic as the average yield now is lower than in 2019. In other regions, prices have not yet decreased. Meanwhile, on the export market, milling whea...
Technical Views - Reacting Higher
SPREADS Sep. crush trades at 77.44c/bu while oilshare weakens to 32.43%. Sep/Dec corn trades from 9c to 9 3/4c. Sep/Dec wheat narrows into 6 1/4c from 7 1/2c. Sep wheat/corn trades 1.52 1/2c. July/Dec corn trades from 10 3/4c to 11 3/4c, while July/Sep corn trades from 1...
AM Outlook - Digesting the Data
NOTE: There will be no Technical Perspectives reports on 2 July. GOOD MORNING, Funds entered the June Quarterly Stocks/Acreage report with a record short corn position, short elsewhere, and long beans. The report was bullish acreage and bearish to neutral stocks. However, the overri...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish acreage report on Tuesday. The report featured a 6-million-acre decrease in total crop area from the agency’s March estimate. Most of th...
Summary of Futures
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.415/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.8225/bushel, up $0.2075 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $286.3/short ton, up $5.8 fro...
Where the Acres Went
Planted acres usually shift amongst crops but they do not typically go completely fallow, at least not to the scale in today’s USDA acreage report. Some shorts got caught with their pants down and took a beating today. The question is why farmers decided to let 6 million acres go idle com...
PM Post - Surprises Add Bang for the Buck
THE OPEN Nov beans: 2 higher Dec meal: .30 higher Dec soyoil: 8 lower Sep. corn: 2 1/2 higher Sep. wheat: 1 1/2 higher The markets opened as called with initial selling pressure with grains at recent highs and beans/meal sitting on overall lows. Oilshar...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA In Pakistan, it appears likely that the government will import as much as 1.4 MMT of wheat. International wheat prices to Pakistan are expected to be as much as 25 percent higher than the current price for local wheat. The government says...
Technical Views - Diverse Influences
SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 74c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.74%. Sep/Dec wheat trades from 7-7 3/4c. The July/Dec corn spread trades from 8c to 8 3/4c while July/Sep trades from 1-3c carry. July/Nov bean inverse strengthens to 9 1/4c from 2 3/4c, while July /August trades...
AM Outlook - About to Get Smarter
GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board to begin the day on a technical correction. The funds remain big grain shorts and near record corn shorts. Chatter is that China may have purchased US corn, and weather is trending warmer and drier next week. Current price...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. Short covering and position adjusting were the themes of CBOT trade on Monday, with corn and wheat turning higher while the soy complex was steady/weaker. Funds were aggressive net buyers o...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 June)
Update for 29 June 2020: The app contains a large volume of data, so please be patient while it loads. Also, if you have any feedback about the app, we're always appreciative of thoughtful suggestions! ...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.2625/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.865/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.665/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $280.5/short ton, down $1.6 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Planting progressed 13 percent last week with 71 percent of the expected area now seeded thanks to dry weather. There are still some areas in northern and western Argentina that need moisture before the crop can be seeded. Of what has been planted, most is rated normal or excellent...
PM Post - Retracement and Weather
THE OPEN November beans: 1/2 lower December meal: .30 higher December soyoil: 6 lower September corn: 3 1/4 higher September wheat: 3 higher Prices opened on a mixed note today, with buying in oilshare and more position - evening in grains. Buy grains/s...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...