Recent Feed Grains Analysis
U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller
As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1675/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $2.9 from yest...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, up $2.1 from ye...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: CBOT Starts Slow, Scrambles to Exciting Finish
Morning price action at the CBOT was firm but mostly boring. That all changed around midday, however, as rumors of export sales, combined with headlines that Argentina’s soybean crop will be smaller than expected, sparked a large (by today’s standards) rally in the grains. Soybeans...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was significant due to the strengthening ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price increased $2/MT to $240/MT FOB Black Sea, while...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.945/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $310.1/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Hogs Crash and Burn, Cattle Rally
CBOT prices were higher today after yesterday’s selloff. There was little fundamental reason for the move, except that traders must have sold what they wanted yesterday, leaving buyers to gain a slight advantage. Commercial purchases of “cheap” corn and soybeans was notable, a...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory fell substantially last week as sales activity ramped up to prepare for the Chinese New Year. As of 11 January, that invento...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.9325/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Corn Breaks Important Technical Mark
Corn and soybeans plunged today on news from USTR Lighthizer that the U.S. and China made little progress on trade talks. The market had previously been encouraged by rumors of ag and energy purchases, including crude oil and DDGS, that theoretically signaled China’s increasing willingnes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1425/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.035/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $2...
Smile! Options Market Reflects Bullish Corn Sentiment
Today’s trading in corn futures and options reflects the increasingly bullish sentiments held by traders. Similarly, despite wheat futures’ recent history of range-bound trading, options traders foresee more upside potential than downside risk with futures prices near their recent &...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movement has been for spot positions with the market turning into a carry structure for January onward. Last week there were rumors of a trade at...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $2.2 from...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20
One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discussed last Friday (click here ) includes a 1.9 million acre reduction in those plantings and an 800,000 acre increase in spring wheat plant...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...
U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller
As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8175/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1675/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, up $2.9 from yest...
Market Commentary
Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1775/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0775/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $312.2/short ton, up $2.1 from ye...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: CBOT Starts Slow, Scrambles to Exciting Finish
Morning price action at the CBOT was firm but mostly boring. That all changed around midday, however, as rumors of export sales, combined with headlines that Argentina’s soybean crop will be smaller than expected, sparked a large (by today’s standards) rally in the grains. Soybeans...
Market Commentary
The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was significant due to the strengthening ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price increased $2/MT to $240/MT FOB Black Sea, while...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.74/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.945/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $310.1/short ton, up $0.8 from ye...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Hogs Crash and Burn, Cattle Rally
CBOT prices were higher today after yesterday’s selloff. There was little fundamental reason for the move, except that traders must have sold what they wanted yesterday, leaving buyers to gain a slight advantage. Commercial purchases of “cheap” corn and soybeans was notable, a...
China In-Country Analysis
Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory fell substantially last week as sales activity ramped up to prepare for the Chinese New Year. As of 11 January, that invento...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.11/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.9325/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $309.3/short ton, down $...
Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Corn Breaks Important Technical Mark
Corn and soybeans plunged today on news from USTR Lighthizer that the U.S. and China made little progress on trade talks. The market had previously been encouraged by rumors of ag and energy purchases, including crude oil and DDGS, that theoretically signaled China’s increasing willingnes...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...
Market Commentary
Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.1425/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.035/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $311.8/short ton, down $2...
Smile! Options Market Reflects Bullish Corn Sentiment
Today’s trading in corn futures and options reflects the increasingly bullish sentiments held by traders. Similarly, despite wheat futures’ recent history of range-bound trading, options traders foresee more upside potential than downside risk with futures prices near their recent &...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movement has been for spot positions with the market turning into a carry structure for January onward. Last week there were rumors of a trade at...
Summary of Futures
Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.7825/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.195/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.1025/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Mar 19 Soymeal closed at $314.6/short ton, down $2.2 from...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20
One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discussed last Friday (click here ) includes a 1.9 million acre reduction in those plantings and an 800,000 acre increase in spring wheat plant...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...