Recent Feed Grains Analysis
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 7 October)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
2024/25 Corn Outlook: Strong Demand Shifts Prices Higher
In light of the surprisingly bullish Grain Stocks data, WPI has updated our quarterly corn market outlook to reflect the supply and demand trends reflected in the USDA’s most recent data. Since the September edition of our quarterly outlook, WPI’s forecast has shifted to feature sma...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Political tensions between Algeria and France reportedly prompted the former country to exclude its traditionally favored European trading partner from a recent wheat purchase tender. Algeria in its latest tender specifically requested no submissions from France and purchase...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat After weeks of anticipation, rains finally arrived in the most needed areas of Argentina. At the beginning of the week, the central and northern parts of Córdoba, central and northern Santa Fe, and parts of Entre Ríos received significant rainfall. Toward the end of th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 September – 4 October 2024 The first week of September proved bullish in European Russia and slightly bearish in the Asian part and Siberia. The weather factor is important but it’s not the key driver. It may become the decisive factor later on depending on...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has a program that it says will reduce wheat imports and cut subsidies on bread. The plan is to blend wheat flour with local corn and sorghum flour. Savings, it is said, could be in the hundreds of millions...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 7 October)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite the lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its outlook for this season’s wheat crop. As we mentioned previously, the rains in August and September were disappointing, and thus far in October they’ve been absent. Additionally, we are seeing rising tempe...
2024/25 Corn Outlook: Strong Demand Shifts Prices Higher
In light of the surprisingly bullish Grain Stocks data, WPI has updated our quarterly corn market outlook to reflect the supply and demand trends reflected in the USDA’s most recent data. Since the September edition of our quarterly outlook, WPI’s forecast has shifted to feature sma...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...