Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
WASDE Outlook for Livestock: More Beef
Today’s WASDE increased the price outlook for 2024 fed steers after dropping it in September. The September WASDE dropped the fed steer price by $3/cwt to $185.11/cwt from the month prior. Today the price forecast was adjusted up $1/cwt. The forecast for the 2025 annual...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Roundup: Red Meat Exports
August trade data was released yesterday. High prices of U.S. beef exports have kept exports down. Compared to August 2023, total exports were 102,682 MT, which was the lowest monthly total since January. For the first eight months of the year, January through August, exports at 856,834 MT were...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook
Hatcheries set 242.69 million eggs in incubators during the week ending 28 September, up 6.1 percent from a year ago. So far this year, egg sets are up 1.9 percent over last year, and to date through the second half of the year are up 3.5 percent. Last year, eggs set started trendng lower in J...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $340.4/short ton, down $7.1 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, up $5.9 from ye...
Market Commentary: Bears Gain Control; Soybeans End Below $10, Corn Breaks Support
Bears regained control of the CBOT ag market trade on Monday, seemingly not because of the WASDE but rather because of shifting weather forecasts and apparently receding threats. The weather in South America is trending more favorably for the corn and soybean crops down there, and showers in th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.0825/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8525/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.96/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.3/short ton, up $0.2...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
Market Commentary: Only Pork Survives the WASDE Intact
The U.S. crop situation for 2024/25 was largely firmed up by today’s USDA October WASDE report. Net, net – there is a lot of grain available. Not enough for any precipitous drop in prices today, but only Lean Hogs managed to end the day higher. Today’s report reinforced...
WASDE Outlook for Livestock: More Beef
Today’s WASDE increased the price outlook for 2024 fed steers after dropping it in September. The September WASDE dropped the fed steer price by $3/cwt to $185.11/cwt from the month prior. Today the price forecast was adjusted up $1/cwt. The forecast for the 2025 annual...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.1575/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.055/bushel, down $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $315.1/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rises as Russia Considers Export Ban; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT saw wheat emerge as the upside leader for the day with multiple bullish stories offering support, including one from Reuters that indicates Russia may be considering a ban on grain exports. Details are nonexistent, but there is reportedly a meeting soon between the ag ministry and grai...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.185/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.0375/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1475/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $316.1/short ton, down $5...
Livestock Roundup: Red Meat Exports
August trade data was released yesterday. High prices of U.S. beef exports have kept exports down. Compared to August 2023, total exports were 102,682 MT, which was the lowest monthly total since January. For the first eight months of the year, January through August, exports at 856,834 MT were...
Market Commentary: CBOT Trades Weather and WASDE Expectations
Trade at the CBOT on Wednesday was dominated by two factors: global weather and preparations for the October WASDE report, which will come out on Friday. The weather was mostly relevant for wheat as parts of Russia, Ukraine, Australia, and the U.S. Plains battle persistent and increasingly dry...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.21/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.2025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $321.2/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Crude Oil Selloff Sink Soy Complex; Cattle Extend Rally on Beef Demand
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with the soy complex leading the way south as weather models show more promising rains for South America. Soybeans turned sharply lower on the forecasts and scored a bearish technical day on the chart, with additional selling pressure coming from th...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2075/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.9475/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.1625/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $323/short ton, down $1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.26/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.925/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.34/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $324/short ton, down $6.5 from...
Market Commentary: Harvest and Weather Pressure Continue
Clear weather and rolling combines in the Northern Hemisphere together with prospective showers in South America maintain pressure on commodity futures. However, volume today was relatively low except in soybeans and livestock. While soybeans closed lower, the end of Golden Week and China&rsquo...
Market Commentary: Next Week’s Weather Makes or Breaks
It was another day lower for the grain and oilseeds sectors, and another day of weak volume for corn and the soy sector. The causes have not changed: A strengthening dollar Very good harvest weather in the U.S. Potentially better weather in South America late next week If good rains materiali...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.8975/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.3775/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $330.5/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Multiple Influences from Macros to Weather
The somewhat bullish influence of Monday’s stocks report has now fully faded. The market today pretty much ignored a solid USDA Export Sales report and instead focused on mostly bearish factors: The EU is postponing enactment of its deforestation policy. Macro jitters around the Middle E...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2825/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.035/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.46/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $332.5/short ton, down $7.9...
Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook
Hatcheries set 242.69 million eggs in incubators during the week ending 28 September, up 6.1 percent from a year ago. So far this year, egg sets are up 1.9 percent over last year, and to date through the second half of the year are up 3.5 percent. Last year, eggs set started trendng lower in J...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 20-26, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipment of 531,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 16 perc...
Market Commentary: Wheat Jumps Higher on Massive Egypt Imports; Soymeal Falls on EUDR News
Wheat remains the darling of the CBOT with more bullish news pouring into the complex. Today’s rally was sparked by reports that Egypt has booked over 3 MMT of wheat from the Black Sea (presumably Russia) to be exported over the next six months. That move comes as Russian wheat stocks are...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $6.1525/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.56/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $340.4/short ton, down $7.1 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.29/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.99/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.5725/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, up $5.9 from ye...