Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Fewer Bears Ahead of WASDE
Confidence in short positions was slightly challenged today as traders positioned ahead of tomorrow’s USDA December WASDE. January soybeans jumped back 16.25 cents today, though not enough to offset a string of earlier double-digit losses. Thus far this week, January soybeans are down 13...
Livestock Roundup: China Hog and Pork Situation
CME cattle futures have grabbed the attention in the U.S., but in China, hog futures are the focus. January hog futures on the Dalian exchange are at a new contract low of ¥14.07/kg which is down about 4 percent. March futures are down about 3 percent with higher volume and a 10 percent dec...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.1175/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $12.955/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $408.5/short ton, down $9.3...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Dissecting Volatile Cattle Futures
As Matt Herrington has been covering, Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have been volatile since the day after Thanksgiving – but trending mostly bearish. This has sparked considerable conversation about the structure of the contracts, expanded limits, and liquidity in the market.&nbs...
Outproducing the Disease
Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) have been trending higher in recent years. The World Health Organization describes the disease as “devastating” in animal populations and a threat to farmer incomes. Last year the disease spread to 67 countries on five continents...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.055/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $417.8/short ton, up $9.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.205/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.0625/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $408.3/short ton, down $4.4...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.25/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $412.7/short ton, down $11.3...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Livestock Roundup: Is Broiler Production Retreating from Black Ink Again?
The broiler sector has been “right-sizing” since Q3 after months of margin pressures reducing placement of broiler chicks. That, along with lower feed costs, helped bring some profitability back into processing margins in September and October. Improved dark meat cuts have he...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.4275/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $424/short ton, down $3 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8575/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.47/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $427/short ton, down $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Rally Pulls Soy Complex Higher; Livestock, Wheat Post Reversals
Tuesday’s ag commodity trade featured several interesting developments, not the least of which was the bullish key reversal in KCBT wheat. All three wheat futures markets turned sharply higher after Monday’s drubbing, but the Kansas City market formed a bullish technical reversal, w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.465/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $430.5/short ton, down $6.1 from...
Suppliers Look at China
China has just over 18 percent of the world’s population, but its food imports and consumption share of world food supplies varies greatly. Soybeans are a well-known story. The Middle Kingdom consumes 30 percent of the world’s soybeans and, to its chagrin, it imports 62 percent of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Market Commentary: Fewer Bears Ahead of WASDE
Confidence in short positions was slightly challenged today as traders positioned ahead of tomorrow’s USDA December WASDE. January soybeans jumped back 16.25 cents today, though not enough to offset a string of earlier double-digit losses. Thus far this week, January soybeans are down 13...
Livestock Roundup: China Hog and Pork Situation
CME cattle futures have grabbed the attention in the U.S., but in China, hog futures are the focus. January hog futures on the Dalian exchange are at a new contract low of ¥14.07/kg which is down about 4 percent. March futures are down about 3 percent with higher volume and a 10 percent dec...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.88/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.4225/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.1175/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $1.7 f...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8425/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $12.955/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $408.5/short ton, down $9.3...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Dissecting Volatile Cattle Futures
As Matt Herrington has been covering, Live cattle and feeder cattle futures have been volatile since the day after Thanksgiving – but trending mostly bearish. This has sparked considerable conversation about the structure of the contracts, expanded limits, and liquidity in the market.&nbs...
Outproducing the Disease
Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) have been trending higher in recent years. The World Health Organization describes the disease as “devastating” in animal populations and a threat to farmer incomes. Last year the disease spread to 67 countries on five continents...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.905/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.3125/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.055/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $417.8/short ton, up $9.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.855/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.205/bushel, up $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.0625/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $408.3/short ton, down $4.4...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8475/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $6.0275/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.25/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $412.7/short ton, down $11.3...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Livestock Roundup: Is Broiler Production Retreating from Black Ink Again?
The broiler sector has been “right-sizing” since Q3 after months of margin pressures reducing placement of broiler chicks. That, along with lower feed costs, helped bring some profitability back into processing margins in September and October. Improved dark meat cuts have he...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.4275/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $424/short ton, down $3 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Summary of Futures
Mar 24 Corn closed at $4.7575/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.8575/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.47/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $427/short ton, down $3.5 from...
Market Commentary: Oil Rally Pulls Soy Complex Higher; Livestock, Wheat Post Reversals
Tuesday’s ag commodity trade featured several interesting developments, not the least of which was the bullish key reversal in KCBT wheat. All three wheat futures markets turned sharply higher after Monday’s drubbing, but the Kansas City market formed a bullish technical reversal, w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.515/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 24 Wheat closed at $5.72/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soybeans closed at $13.465/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close. Jan 24 Soymeal closed at $430.5/short ton, down $6.1 from...
Suppliers Look at China
China has just over 18 percent of the world’s population, but its food imports and consumption share of world food supplies varies greatly. Soybeans are a well-known story. The Middle Kingdom consumes 30 percent of the world’s soybeans and, to its chagrin, it imports 62 percent of t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...