Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.745/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $459.9/short ton, up $1.7...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0475/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.7725/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $458.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share has been declining, though less for poultry than for beef. Brazil is a low-cost producer and has been a preferred provider for China where mu...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.6775/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $457.9/short ton, up $11.9 f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.4225/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $446/short ton, up $0.9 from yes...
Broiler Production Up, but Not Caught Up with Pre-Pandemic Efficiency
The March WASDE projected broiler production to increase based on recent hatchery data. So far, broiler chicks placed through 18 March are 101 percent of last year at 2.05 billion. But there are still hatchability issues plaguing the sector, which encumber the potential number of chick placemen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, t...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.43/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.2825/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $445.1/short ton, up $6.8 from...
March Cold Storage Report
February 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from January and were 5.8 percent greater than February 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild stockpiles. Total red meet supplies fell 2.64 percent due to a sharp decline in beef stocks while total poultry inventories rose 2.5 percent...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.195/bushel, down $0.29 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $438.3/short ton, down $13...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent from the previous week. That resulted in the average operating loss per live pig widening by RMB 41/head ($5.93/MT) or 25.6 percent. With the...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of selling hitting all three markets after the morning opening. That pressure helped push corn lower initially, though old crop futures manage...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.485/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $451.6/short ton, down $9 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.67/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $460.6/short ton, down $2.1 fro...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.495/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, down $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.745/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $459.9/short ton, up $1.7...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.505/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $7.0475/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.7725/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $458.2/short ton, up $0.3 from...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share has been declining, though less for poultry than for beef. Brazil is a low-cost producer and has been a preferred provider for China where mu...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4725/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.9975/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.6775/bushel, up $0.255 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $457.9/short ton, up $11.9 f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.4825/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.98/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.4225/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $446/short ton, up $0.9 from yes...
Broiler Production Up, but Not Caught Up with Pre-Pandemic Efficiency
The March WASDE projected broiler production to increase based on recent hatchery data. So far, broiler chicks placed through 18 March are 101 percent of last year at 2.05 billion. But there are still hatchability issues plaguing the sector, which encumber the potential number of chick placemen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, t...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.43/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.885/bushel, up $0.265 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.2825/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $445.1/short ton, up $6.8 from...
March Cold Storage Report
February 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were up from January and were 5.8 percent greater than February 2022 as the industry continues to rebuild stockpiles. Total red meet supplies fell 2.64 percent due to a sharp decline in beef stocks while total poultry inventories rose 2.5 percent...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3175/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.62/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.195/bushel, down $0.29 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $438.3/short ton, down $13...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Cash Price Falls Again, Shedding More Than 2 Percent The national average price dropped by RMB .34/kg ($.02/lb.) or nearly 2.2 percent from the previous week. That resulted in the average operating loss per live pig widening by RMB 41/head ($5.93/MT) or 25.6 percent. With the...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of selling hitting all three markets after the morning opening. That pressure helped push corn lower initially, though old crop futures manage...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.335/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.485/bushel, down $0.185 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $451.6/short ton, down $9 fr...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Summary of Futures
May 23 Corn closed at $6.3/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 23 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.175 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.67/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close. May 23 Soymeal closed at $460.6/short ton, down $2.1 fro...