World Perspectives

Livestock Recent Livestock Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remained true after the report was released and yet some things are inexplicable.  For example, the corn crop is threated by hot and dry weat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.4475/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9075/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $300.1/short ton, down $5.3...

livestock

USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...

livestock

Cattle Price Recovery Boosts Cow/Calf Profitability

Declining feed costs and higher prices for feeder cattle and cull cows have lifted WPI’s expectations of cow/calf profitability for 2020. Compared to our forecast one month ago, the “average” producer in Kansas is expected to lose $1.94/cow unit in 2020, an $18/cow unit improv...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE report tomorrow that may or may not spring a surprise or two. This is the critical time of the campaign for corn, and it is not a neutral period...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The May export numbers were released this week; plant shutdowns which hit beef and pork packing plants reduced export totals month over month compared to April. Beef was particularly impacted and dropped to the lowest monthly value in 10 years. Beef export value per head of fed slaughter averag...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls for Fourth Straight Month Average food prices continued to decline in May as the cost of fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, and eggs for consumers were down from a year ago. Meanwhile, the average price for pork, which has continued to increase, rose at a lower r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.5425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9725/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $1.3...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a defensive note Tuesday with generally favorable/steady crop conditions ratings for key corn/soy producing states reducing the need for a weather premium. Corn and soybeans walked back to test key support points, which is often typical after a sharp rally. The wheat market p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.525/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $303.1/short ton, down $2.9...

livestock

Importance of Market Tools

It has been a wild year for U.S. pork producers. It started out dreary but then hopes picked up when the Phase One agreement was signed with China. It again turned dark with COVID-19 when packers lacked labor and had to shut fabrication plants due to disease outbreaks. Subsequent improvements i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was initially supportive, with hot/dry weather forecast for the major crop-growing regions, though afternoon model runs turned wetter for the last...

livestock

USDA Food Box Upends the FMMO Dairy

USDA extended the contracts for a second round of the Food Box Distribution program last week; the new round will run through 30 August. There were 205 contracts awarded; 189 were extended, 11 were not extended based on performance, and 16 new contractors were added and awarded with an addition...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.465/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.0625/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $306/short ton, up $1.8 from yes...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The Livestock and Meat trade data will be released Monday after the holiday weekend; it will likely show exports way down in May reflecting the COVID-19 impact on slaughter and offsetting the high profile gains made in April, especially in pork shipments to China. With the COVID shutdown in pla...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.435/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, down $0.4...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.505/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.99/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.6/short ton, up $8.7 from yest...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

livestock

A Pork Story

The U.S. hog inventory on 1 June was 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent from a year ago. The supply is likely to stay elevated through the rest of the year. As a result, hog prices are down 41 percent YoY. The elevated pork processing margin does not characterize profit but rather the difference...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish acreage report on Tuesday. The report featured a 6-million-acre decrease in total crop area from the agency’s March estimate. Most of th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remained true after the report was released and yet some things are inexplicable.  For example, the corn crop is threated by hot and dry weat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.4475/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9075/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $300.1/short ton, down $5.3...

livestock

USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...

livestock

Cattle Price Recovery Boosts Cow/Calf Profitability

Declining feed costs and higher prices for feeder cattle and cull cows have lifted WPI’s expectations of cow/calf profitability for 2020. Compared to our forecast one month ago, the “average” producer in Kansas is expected to lose $1.94/cow unit in 2020, an $18/cow unit improv...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE report tomorrow that may or may not spring a surprise or two. This is the critical time of the campaign for corn, and it is not a neutral period...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The May export numbers were released this week; plant shutdowns which hit beef and pork packing plants reduced export totals month over month compared to April. Beef was particularly impacted and dropped to the lowest monthly value in 10 years. Beef export value per head of fed slaughter averag...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls for Fourth Straight Month Average food prices continued to decline in May as the cost of fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, and eggs for consumers were down from a year ago. Meanwhile, the average price for pork, which has continued to increase, rose at a lower r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.5425/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, up $0.2125 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9725/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $301.8/short ton, down $1.3...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a defensive note Tuesday with generally favorable/steady crop conditions ratings for key corn/soy producing states reducing the need for a weather premium. Corn and soybeans walked back to test key support points, which is often typical after a sharp rally. The wheat market p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.525/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9525/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.025/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $303.1/short ton, down $2.9...

livestock

Importance of Market Tools

It has been a wild year for U.S. pork producers. It started out dreary but then hopes picked up when the Phase One agreement was signed with China. It again turned dark with COVID-19 when packers lacked labor and had to shut fabrication plants due to disease outbreaks. Subsequent improvements i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was initially supportive, with hot/dry weather forecast for the major crop-growing regions, though afternoon model runs turned wetter for the last...

livestock

USDA Food Box Upends the FMMO Dairy

USDA extended the contracts for a second round of the Food Box Distribution program last week; the new round will run through 30 August. There were 205 contracts awarded; 189 were extended, 11 were not extended based on performance, and 16 new contractors were added and awarded with an addition...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.465/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.0625/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $306/short ton, up $1.8 from yes...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The Livestock and Meat trade data will be released Monday after the holiday weekend; it will likely show exports way down in May reflecting the COVID-19 impact on slaughter and offsetting the high profile gains made in April, especially in pork shipments to China. With the COVID shutdown in pla...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.435/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.92/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9675/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.2/short ton, down $0.4...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.505/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.9875/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.99/bushel, up $0.1675 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $304.6/short ton, up $8.7 from yest...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

livestock

A Pork Story

The U.S. hog inventory on 1 June was 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent from a year ago. The supply is likely to stay elevated through the rest of the year. As a result, hog prices are down 41 percent YoY. The elevated pork processing margin does not characterize profit but rather the difference...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish acreage report on Tuesday. The report featured a 6-million-acre decrease in total crop area from the agency’s March estimate. Most of th...

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