Recent Livestock Analysis
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338/short ton, down $0.7...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 April to be 102 percent of last year; this would be the seventh consecutive month that inventories were equal to or larger than the previous yea...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall while Oilseeds Gain; Oil Falls on U.S. Stocks, Chinese Economy
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifted lower in lackluster, low-volume trade. While the grains were on the defensive, the soy complex found some support from technically related...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.495/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.7/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Fed Cattle Near Term Supply and Demand
Fed cattle prices remain at record levels, but the market has been bearish with dropping futures and a weak cash market; prices dropped last week about $2 live and $4 dressed. In the first four months of last year, cattle prices climbed steadily and hit their highest level in April, dropp...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.45/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, down $3.2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Stronger Dollar, Technical Trade; NOPA Crush Sets Record
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with a rising U.S. dollar and favorable weather for the U.S. and South America pressuring values. Some jitters over the weekend developments in the Middle East also kept markets on the defensive, though crude oil prices slipped lower despite the incre...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $344.4/short ton, up $8.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, up $4...
Livestock Roundup: NASS Dropping July Cattle Report, Revising Other Data Collection
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced this week that it will not publish the July cattle inventory report. Further it will dop the county estimates for livestock beginning this year – as well as the country crop estimates, which will impact the data available...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on Weather Concerns; Inflation Data Sinks Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mixed on the last full trading day before the April WASDE with the corn and wheat markets seeing support and ending higher, while the soy complex retreated, and the livestock sector collapsed on inflation-induced demand concerns. The catalyst for the day’s strength in corn wa...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.585/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.6475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.745/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, down $0...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $336/short ton, up $2.9 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads Week-Ending Rally; Cattle Collapse Again; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Friday with wheat futures leading the way on the heels of a rally in Paris wheat and concerning weather developments for the Northern Hemisphere wheat crops. The soy complex was firmer as well, primarily due to a soyoil rally that found its motivation in the new co...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6725/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.85/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Livestock Roundup: FMMO Hearing Now Closed, New Proposed Order Coming in July
The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) hearing is now closed. All final arguments had to be submitted by 1 April. From 23 August 2023 through 30 January 2024, there were 49 days of hearings, the longest on record, with more than 12,000 pages of transcribed oral arguments in addition to all wri...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.5/short ton, up $3.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Sorting Through HPAI in Dairy Cows
As WPI reported on 26 March (see here), HPAI was discovered as the “mystery illness” affecting dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, and then New Mexico, and yesterday Matt Herrington noted that the cases of HPAI have spread Michigan and Idaho. As USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection S...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $328.3/short ton, down $5.1 from yesterda...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.87/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.2/short ton, down $0.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets
The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...
Hogs and Pigs in China
As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction is being offset by continued records in pigs per little, which in the December to February quarter reached 11.53 head. Herd culli...
Market Commentary: Wow, Some Fun Information!
USDA’s much anticipated Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports had few shockers, but they did shuffle the board a bit. First, the top line stuff: Corn Planted area was expected to drop due to higher input costs and lower prices, but USDA’s 90-million-acre number was at t...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report Neutral with Bearish Undertones
Today, USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the December through February quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.6 million head, which was 101 percent of March 2023 and the highest since 2020. That was slightly higher than pre-report expectations. Total...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6025/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.915/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $337.7/short ton, down $1.3 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for period March 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 339,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 408,900 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but do...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $0.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...
Duck Data
The USDA attache’s office in New Delhi reports that India issued revised import rules last month for premium duck meat. The tariff was reduced from 30 percent to 5 percent, and standards were announced for selling the meat to at least three-star hotels and restaurants approved by the gove...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sinks on Risk-Off Trade; Cattle Futures Crash on HPAI Discovery
Reactions to news headlines dominated Tuesday’s commodity trade with markets selling off in defensive, risk-off price action. As is discussed in more detail below and in nearby pages, bearish news hit the markets from the overnight collapse of a bridge in Baltimore, Maryland that closed t...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $339.8/short ton, down $1...
The Next Bull is a Cow
The market reacted bearishly to reports of HPAI in dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, implying concerns about a demand shock. USDA advised there is no risk to human health and the animals are recovering. Nonetheless, feeder cattle futures dropped $3-5 and live cattle prices dropped over $2/cwt. Cl...
February Cold Storage
The February Cold Storage report’s numbers reflect a significant drawdown in red meat and poultry stocks compared to one year ago. Total red meat and poultry inventories were down nearly 9 percent year-over-year, despite higher slaughter and meat production numbers for the month. The repo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338/short ton, down $0.7...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 April to be 102 percent of last year; this would be the seventh consecutive month that inventories were equal to or larger than the previous yea...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall while Oilseeds Gain; Oil Falls on U.S. Stocks, Chinese Economy
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifted lower in lackluster, low-volume trade. While the grains were on the defensive, the soy complex found some support from technically related...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.495/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.7/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Fed Cattle Near Term Supply and Demand
Fed cattle prices remain at record levels, but the market has been bearish with dropping futures and a weak cash market; prices dropped last week about $2 live and $4 dressed. In the first four months of last year, cattle prices climbed steadily and hit their highest level in April, dropp...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.45/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, down $3.2...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Stronger Dollar, Technical Trade; NOPA Crush Sets Record
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with a rising U.S. dollar and favorable weather for the U.S. and South America pressuring values. Some jitters over the weekend developments in the Middle East also kept markets on the defensive, though crude oil prices slipped lower despite the incre...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $344.4/short ton, up $8.8 from y...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, up $4...
Livestock Roundup: NASS Dropping July Cattle Report, Revising Other Data Collection
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced this week that it will not publish the July cattle inventory report. Further it will dop the county estimates for livestock beginning this year – as well as the country crop estimates, which will impact the data available...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on Weather Concerns; Inflation Data Sinks Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mixed on the last full trading day before the April WASDE with the corn and wheat markets seeing support and ending higher, while the soy complex retreated, and the livestock sector collapsed on inflation-induced demand concerns. The catalyst for the day’s strength in corn wa...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.585/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.6475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.745/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, down $0...
Evolving Markets
Anyone knowledgeable about the complexity of animal agriculture, and the general public’s weariness about the husbandry and slaughter processes knows that the future is cultivated or lab-grown meat. It is the reason why some of the largest and early investors in this technology have been...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $336/short ton, up $2.9 fro...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads Week-Ending Rally; Cattle Collapse Again; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Friday with wheat futures leading the way on the heels of a rally in Paris wheat and concerning weather developments for the Northern Hemisphere wheat crops. The soy complex was firmer as well, primarily due to a soyoil rally that found its motivation in the new co...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6725/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.85/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Livestock Roundup: FMMO Hearing Now Closed, New Proposed Order Coming in July
The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) hearing is now closed. All final arguments had to be submitted by 1 April. From 23 August 2023 through 30 January 2024, there were 49 days of hearings, the longest on record, with more than 12,000 pages of transcribed oral arguments in addition to all wri...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.5/short ton, up $3.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Sorting Through HPAI in Dairy Cows
As WPI reported on 26 March (see here), HPAI was discovered as the “mystery illness” affecting dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, and then New Mexico, and yesterday Matt Herrington noted that the cases of HPAI have spread Michigan and Idaho. As USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection S...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $328.3/short ton, down $5.1 from yesterda...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.87/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.2/short ton, down $0.2 from...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall After Bullish USDA Reports; Panic Not Finished in Cattle Markets
The CBOT was mostly red on Monday with traders seeing little reason to buy the soy complex after a benign and semi-bearish Grain Stocks and acreage reports for soybeans. Further, they saw little reason to keep buying corn and wheat amid large on-farm stocks and amply supplied global balance she...
Hogs and Pigs in China
As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction is being offset by continued records in pigs per little, which in the December to February quarter reached 11.53 head. Herd culli...
Market Commentary: Wow, Some Fun Information!
USDA’s much anticipated Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports had few shockers, but they did shuffle the board a bit. First, the top line stuff: Corn Planted area was expected to drop due to higher input costs and lower prices, but USDA’s 90-million-acre number was at t...
Livestock Roundup: Hogs and Pigs Report Neutral with Bearish Undertones
Today, USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the December through February quarter. The total inventory of hogs and pigs on 1 March was 74.6 million head, which was 101 percent of March 2023 and the highest since 2020. That was slightly higher than pre-report expectations. Total...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.42/bushel, up $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6025/bushel, up $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.915/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $337.7/short ton, down $1.3 fr...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for period March 15-21, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 339,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 408,900 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but do...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.475/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.925/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $0.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Acreage Outlooks Weaken Corn, Soy; Wheat Gains on Firmer Russian Offers
Trade at the CBOT was mostly lower heading into Thursday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports from the USDA, but wheat futures managed to find midday support and settle higher. Wheat’s strength came from another week of cautious gains in Russian FOB offers, which is seen...
Duck Data
The USDA attache’s office in New Delhi reports that India issued revised import rules last month for premium duck meat. The tariff was reduced from 30 percent to 5 percent, and standards were announced for selling the meat to at least three-star hotels and restaurants approved by the gove...
Market Commentary: CBOT Sinks on Risk-Off Trade; Cattle Futures Crash on HPAI Discovery
Reactions to news headlines dominated Tuesday’s commodity trade with markets selling off in defensive, risk-off price action. As is discussed in more detail below and in nearby pages, bearish news hit the markets from the overnight collapse of a bridge in Baltimore, Maryland that closed t...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, down $0.1025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $339.8/short ton, down $1...
The Next Bull is a Cow
The market reacted bearishly to reports of HPAI in dairy cows in Texas and Kansas, implying concerns about a demand shock. USDA advised there is no risk to human health and the animals are recovering. Nonetheless, feeder cattle futures dropped $3-5 and live cattle prices dropped over $2/cwt. Cl...
February Cold Storage
The February Cold Storage report’s numbers reflect a significant drawdown in red meat and poultry stocks compared to one year ago. Total red meat and poultry inventories were down nearly 9 percent year-over-year, despite higher slaughter and meat production numbers for the month. The repo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...