World Perspectives

Recent Macroeconomics Analysis

soy-oilseeds

The Checkered Use of Tariffs

President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his administration’s foreign and economic policies. He has said on numerous occasions that he “likes tariffs” and that they will he...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

soy-oilseeds livestock feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends China’s Economic Slowdown Hits Food and Agricultural Sectors After increases in the cost of food exceeded 3 percent during September and October, food inflation in China retreated to 2.5 percent for both November and December. According to data from China’s Nati...

Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power

Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTBs cost it A$3.4 billion per year and the nation’s grain growers curated a list of 54 such barriers across 15 markets. But there is no...

Trade War End or Beginning; Industry Makeover

Trade War End or Beginning Some analysts are saying that the downward pressure on both the U.S. and Chinese economies will force a close to the trade war. There are indications that progress is being made with China looking at western-proposed restrictions on government control of business data...

farm-inputs

Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa

Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the nation was completely subdued in just over a month. Historically it is known as the start of WWII, but because a half-year passed before Hit...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Trade War and Weather Made Brazil China’s Main 2018 Source Recently released data from China’s Customs Bureau show how much China came to rely on Brazil in 2018 for its imported soybeans. The sharp uptick in imported soybeans from the South American giant was due primarily...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Down Nearly 50 Percent in 2018 U.S. agricultural exports to China during January-October were a paltry 14.52 MMT worth $8.32 billion versus 30.77 MMT valued at $14.27 billion during the same period of 2017. That volume was also 51.5 percent less t...

feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s Corn Prices Too High; End Users Want Imports The Indian poultry, dairy, feed and starch sectors’s corn consumption has grown 1.1 MMT since 2014/15 to reach 19.63 MMT in 2017/18. The marketable surplus peaked in 2016/17 at 19.10 MMT, per the industry estimate. Erratic supplie...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 29 percent higher than last year. Two possible reasons for this are the higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) announced by the government of In...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Hits Seventh-Month High As the trade war with the U.S. has continued, monthly food costs in China surged with the end of summer, rising 3.6 percent on average in September compared with a year ago. For 2018, this represents the biggest uptick since February when pric...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Value of China’s Agricultural Imports in September Higher than a Year Ago China’s agricultural imports in September were valued at $11.8 billion, up $1.14 billion (+10.7 percent) versus the same month last year but down $900 million (-7.1 percent) from this past August...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Fall to Ten-Year Low The USDA-GATS October export data, which covers monthly figures through August 2018, underscores the deep impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict. It shows that just 345,300.4 MT of U.S. agricultural products were shipped to the Middle...

soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Major Feed Companies Hike Price to Offset Tariffs During the last week of September, several large feed manufacturers, including New Hope Group, Charoen Pokphand (CP), and China Haida Feed Group, announced plans to increase the prices of their feed products. This is the second time in...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Are Commodities Underpriced?

These are particularly risky times for commodity traders. Raw material markets are being pushed and pulled by geopolitical forces as well as rapidly changing and sometimes contradictory macro influences. The fundamentals of supply and demand seem to have been shunted to the sidelines. Consider...

The Politics of Trade

The Trump administration had set 30 September as the deadline for creation of a new trade agreement to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. This deadline was based on timing the U.S. congressional approval process so that outgoing Mex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - September 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...

energy biofuel soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Money Flows versus the Market

WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest volume and value levels for that month since 2007. With sorghum and wheat exports dropping to zero and soybean shipments at their lowest in...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine Export Duties Last week the Argentine government announced an emergency plan to reduce the state deficit, which includes an export duty on agricultural products. Since last Tuesday, the duty rate of 4 pesos for every U.S. dollar of value on those exports was applied as of last Tuesday...

livestock

Why Moo and No Squawk; Trump Attacks; Indonesia FTA’s

Why Moo and No Squawk? Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. may not end for a while yet. President Trump does not believe he has yet to achieve maximum discomfort on the part of Ottawa (or Brussels, Beijing or Geneva). And he does not believe he maximizes his side of the bargain until...

soy-oilseeds

The Checkered Use of Tariffs

President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his administration’s foreign and economic policies. He has said on numerous occasions that he “likes tariffs” and that they will he...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

soy-oilseeds livestock feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomic Trends China’s Economic Slowdown Hits Food and Agricultural Sectors After increases in the cost of food exceeded 3 percent during September and October, food inflation in China retreated to 2.5 percent for both November and December. According to data from China’s Nati...

Plurilaterals for NTBs; Leaky Law; Big State Power

Plurilateral for NTBs Australia has launched an effort to address the nontariff trade barriers (NTBs) its exporters face. The Aussie beef industry says NTBs cost it A$3.4 billion per year and the nation’s grain growers curated a list of 54 such barriers across 15 markets. But there is no...

Trade War End or Beginning; Industry Makeover

Trade War End or Beginning Some analysts are saying that the downward pressure on both the U.S. and Chinese economies will force a close to the trade war. There are indications that progress is being made with China looking at western-proposed restrictions on government control of business data...

farm-inputs

Phoney Trade War; Stop the Phony War on Biotech; False Plan for Africa

Phoney Trade War In September 1939, Hitler’s army imposed the infamous blitzkrieg attack on Poland and, with the complicity of the Soviet Union, the nation was completely subdued in just over a month. Historically it is known as the start of WWII, but because a half-year passed before Hit...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Trade War and Weather Made Brazil China’s Main 2018 Source Recently released data from China’s Customs Bureau show how much China came to rely on Brazil in 2018 for its imported soybeans. The sharp uptick in imported soybeans from the South American giant was due primarily...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Down Nearly 50 Percent in 2018 U.S. agricultural exports to China during January-October were a paltry 14.52 MMT worth $8.32 billion versus 30.77 MMT valued at $14.27 billion during the same period of 2017. That volume was also 51.5 percent less t...

feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s Corn Prices Too High; End Users Want Imports The Indian poultry, dairy, feed and starch sectors’s corn consumption has grown 1.1 MMT since 2014/15 to reach 19.63 MMT in 2017/18. The marketable surplus peaked in 2016/17 at 19.10 MMT, per the industry estimate. Erratic supplie...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 29 percent higher than last year. Two possible reasons for this are the higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) announced by the government of In...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Hits Seventh-Month High As the trade war with the U.S. has continued, monthly food costs in China surged with the end of summer, rising 3.6 percent on average in September compared with a year ago. For 2018, this represents the biggest uptick since February when pric...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Value of China’s Agricultural Imports in September Higher than a Year Ago China’s agricultural imports in September were valued at $11.8 billion, up $1.14 billion (+10.7 percent) versus the same month last year but down $900 million (-7.1 percent) from this past August...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Fall to Ten-Year Low The USDA-GATS October export data, which covers monthly figures through August 2018, underscores the deep impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict. It shows that just 345,300.4 MT of U.S. agricultural products were shipped to the Middle...

soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Major Feed Companies Hike Price to Offset Tariffs During the last week of September, several large feed manufacturers, including New Hope Group, Charoen Pokphand (CP), and China Haida Feed Group, announced plans to increase the prices of their feed products. This is the second time in...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Are Commodities Underpriced?

These are particularly risky times for commodity traders. Raw material markets are being pushed and pulled by geopolitical forces as well as rapidly changing and sometimes contradictory macro influences. The fundamentals of supply and demand seem to have been shunted to the sidelines. Consider...

The Politics of Trade

The Trump administration had set 30 September as the deadline for creation of a new trade agreement to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. This deadline was based on timing the U.S. congressional approval process so that outgoing Mex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - September 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...

energy biofuel soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Money Flows versus the Market

WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest volume and value levels for that month since 2007. With sorghum and wheat exports dropping to zero and soybean shipments at their lowest in...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine Export Duties Last week the Argentine government announced an emergency plan to reduce the state deficit, which includes an export duty on agricultural products. Since last Tuesday, the duty rate of 4 pesos for every U.S. dollar of value on those exports was applied as of last Tuesday...

livestock

Why Moo and No Squawk; Trump Attacks; Indonesia FTA’s

Why Moo and No Squawk? Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. may not end for a while yet. President Trump does not believe he has yet to achieve maximum discomfort on the part of Ottawa (or Brussels, Beijing or Geneva). And he does not believe he maximizes his side of the bargain until...

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