Political Risk to Agribusiness
The Biden Administration and others have already shown their animosity toward Big Ag. Heading into 2024 the hate may grow larger. The President’s reelection campaign, and that of the Democratic Party, is threatened by voter dissatisfaction with the economy. Specifically, they are upset ab...
Hobbling AI; Chinese Spin; F2F Setback
Hobbling AI The EU has neared agreement on doing what it does best, regulating. This time its target is artificial intelligence. France and Germany were reluctant participants because they have their own startup AI companies and didn’t want to hobble them. Regulatory hobbling from Brussel...
NGT Optimism; New Old Threat to Trade
NGT Optimism EU Parliament rapporteur for the Commission’s proposed new policy on new genomic techniques (NGT’s) is Jessica Polfjärd and she is expressing optimism that she can get the portfolio approved in January. She told Euractiv that otherwise it may “take potentiall...
EU-Mercosur Deal Smooshed
The multi-year effort to negotiate a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur appears to have run into too many hurdles on both sides of the Atlantic. France is a key blocker in Europe, with claims that the environmental provisions are not tough enough on South America. Argentina said it was...
Decoupling or Redirected; Take, Don’t Give
Decoupling or Redirected There is much academic debate over whether U.S.- China trade has been decoupled, or merely redirected with Chinese goods diverted through other countries such as Mexico and Thailand. Part of the problem is using correlation to assume causation. Researchers at Penn State...
Tautological Rabbit Hole; Buy Small and Stay Home
Tautological Rabbit Hole The COP28 meeting in Dubai came to an agreement on a loss and damage fund whereby rich countries help poor countries weather the adverse impacts of climate change. Funding will be voluntary and it will be run by the World Bank, presumably with the controls necessary to...
Atlantic Risks; Mixed Reviews of Asks; Rural Anarchists
Atlantic Risks EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovkis is a serious and competent politician. He is now signaling that reaching a conceptual deal with the U.S. on the trade in steel and aluminum is stalled and without prospect. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration appears unable to make concessi...
Green and Brown Collide
Last week’s win in the Netherlands by Gert Wilders was a stunning refutation of the Green Deal. The policy’s former protagonist in the EU Commission, Frans Timmermans, was relegated to a minority role with just seventeen seats. He had left his Commission position with the idea of ru...
Rebalancing Global Meat; Unintended Water Consequences
Rebalancing Global Meat The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization will present a plan at next week’s COP28 meeting in Dubai that calls for rich countries to eat less meat, while instructing developing countries to boost their livestock production to improve animal protein in their...
Major Dairy Defeat; Boomers’ Promise to the Future
Major Dairy Defeat In a major policy defeat for U.S. dairy, a USMCA dispute settlement panel ruled that Canada’s dairy quotas do not limit U.S. access. U.S. dairy exports to Canada have risen but at less than the level expected when Canada promised to make changes to its regime. Ottawa pu...
Farm Financials Ending 2023, Entering 2024
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate four times in 2023 for a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points, though it left rates unchanged in September and November. Higher borrowing and carrying costs have been the new normal in agriculture, a shift that will linger to some degree for...
De-Risking and Food
The Biden Administration went through a rapid succession of descriptors for its trade policy toward China before settling on de-risking. It initially called for decoupling but switched to re-shoring. This upset allies and so next it tried friend-shoring. It has stuck with de-risking for a while...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Cultivated versus Uncouth; All or Nothing; Genetic Enforcement
Cultivated versus Uncouth The Italian Chamber of Deputies passed a law banning the sale of cultivated meat. The law will prevent the production and sale of food or feed "from cell cultures or tissues derived from vertebrate animals." Apparently, you can only eat animals in Italy. But they&rsquo...
Inflation Rates Now Flat, but Prices Permanently Up
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at their 1 November meeting; Chairman Powell noted that this was a pause to let the 100-basis point increase in rates over the past year take full effect. This week, an initial sign that progress was being made was the October Consumer Price Ind...
Inclusive Trade; Transatlantic Imbalance
Inclusive Trade Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) is framework embraced by the Democratic Party in the U.S. to remedy past discrimination, particularly against “historically” underrepresented classes of people. The Biden Administration decided to throw the inclusion concept int...
DE&I Comes to Trade; Green Deal Equals Deforestation
DE&I Comes to Trade It is busy this week on the U.S. West Coast. Asian leaders are negotiating with their American hosts on APEC, IPEF, and U.S. – China bilateral relations. The latter is supposed to become less prickly as Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meet for the first time in a year, bu...
Over-greening Bees; China versus Labor; Farm Policy
Over-greening Bees In 2018 we were all warned that a third or more of our food supply was being threatened by the struggles facing bees. Europe focused on insect pollinator health, including banning (with exceptions of course) neonicotinoid pesticides as a threat to pollinators. American resear...
China Teed Up; Reality in the House; Farmers Win in EU
China Teed Up President Biden meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week outside the APEC meeting. Bloomberg suggests there could be a quid pro quo with China giving Washington assistance on defense issues, stopping the flow of fentanyl, and increasing transparency. In exchange, the U.S. wo...
Biotech for Environment; Transatlantic Negotiating Mandate; Indonesian Heat
Biotech for Environment Greens and others in the European Parliament reportedly reacted badly to rapporteur Jessica Polfjärd's initiative that would broaden the EU Commission’s proposal for lessening regulation of new genomic techniques. Yet it is genetic modification technologies th...
Trade Policy Developments; Dutch Politics
Trade Policy Developments The Biden Administration is making several adjustments to its major trade policy initiatives. First, while hosting a meeting last week of the Americas’ Partnership for Economic Prosperity, President Biden was forced to expand the agenda to include trade and move...
The Non-Sucralose-Coated Sugar-High; Ports are Princely; Future of Ag
The Non-Sucralose-Coated Sugar-High A recent poll indicating President Biden is in some reelection trouble even against Donald Trump doesn’t change the fundamental context for U.S. trade policy. Both politicians have now embraced protectionism on behalf of manufacturing labor. While Mr. B...
AI versus GMO; Self-Immolation; Too Hot to Handle
AI versus GMO Political leaders gathered in Bletchley Park at the invitation of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and agreed to a global dialogue on regulating artificial intelligence. There was a similar meeting in Hong Kong. They want AI businesses to include responsibility in their models, and a...
PPE Your Meat; Speaking Truth to Food
PPE Your Meat President Biden’s Midwest tour included a Christmas tree of presents to rural America. He echoed USDA Secretary Vilsack’s concerns about industry concentration and said the government would spend money to create small meat packing companies and other populist ideals. H...
Political Risk to Agribusiness
The Biden Administration and others have already shown their animosity toward Big Ag. Heading into 2024 the hate may grow larger. The President’s reelection campaign, and that of the Democratic Party, is threatened by voter dissatisfaction with the economy. Specifically, they are upset ab...
Hobbling AI; Chinese Spin; F2F Setback
Hobbling AI The EU has neared agreement on doing what it does best, regulating. This time its target is artificial intelligence. France and Germany were reluctant participants because they have their own startup AI companies and didn’t want to hobble them. Regulatory hobbling from Brussel...
NGT Optimism; New Old Threat to Trade
NGT Optimism EU Parliament rapporteur for the Commission’s proposed new policy on new genomic techniques (NGT’s) is Jessica Polfjärd and she is expressing optimism that she can get the portfolio approved in January. She told Euractiv that otherwise it may “take potentiall...
EU-Mercosur Deal Smooshed
The multi-year effort to negotiate a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur appears to have run into too many hurdles on both sides of the Atlantic. France is a key blocker in Europe, with claims that the environmental provisions are not tough enough on South America. Argentina said it was...
Decoupling or Redirected; Take, Don’t Give
Decoupling or Redirected There is much academic debate over whether U.S.- China trade has been decoupled, or merely redirected with Chinese goods diverted through other countries such as Mexico and Thailand. Part of the problem is using correlation to assume causation. Researchers at Penn State...
Tautological Rabbit Hole; Buy Small and Stay Home
Tautological Rabbit Hole The COP28 meeting in Dubai came to an agreement on a loss and damage fund whereby rich countries help poor countries weather the adverse impacts of climate change. Funding will be voluntary and it will be run by the World Bank, presumably with the controls necessary to...
Atlantic Risks; Mixed Reviews of Asks; Rural Anarchists
Atlantic Risks EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovkis is a serious and competent politician. He is now signaling that reaching a conceptual deal with the U.S. on the trade in steel and aluminum is stalled and without prospect. Meanwhile, the Biden Administration appears unable to make concessi...
Green and Brown Collide
Last week’s win in the Netherlands by Gert Wilders was a stunning refutation of the Green Deal. The policy’s former protagonist in the EU Commission, Frans Timmermans, was relegated to a minority role with just seventeen seats. He had left his Commission position with the idea of ru...
Rebalancing Global Meat; Unintended Water Consequences
Rebalancing Global Meat The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization will present a plan at next week’s COP28 meeting in Dubai that calls for rich countries to eat less meat, while instructing developing countries to boost their livestock production to improve animal protein in their...
Major Dairy Defeat; Boomers’ Promise to the Future
Major Dairy Defeat In a major policy defeat for U.S. dairy, a USMCA dispute settlement panel ruled that Canada’s dairy quotas do not limit U.S. access. U.S. dairy exports to Canada have risen but at less than the level expected when Canada promised to make changes to its regime. Ottawa pu...
Farm Financials Ending 2023, Entering 2024
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate four times in 2023 for a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points, though it left rates unchanged in September and November. Higher borrowing and carrying costs have been the new normal in agriculture, a shift that will linger to some degree for...
De-Risking and Food
The Biden Administration went through a rapid succession of descriptors for its trade policy toward China before settling on de-risking. It initially called for decoupling but switched to re-shoring. This upset allies and so next it tried friend-shoring. It has stuck with de-risking for a while...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Cultivated versus Uncouth; All or Nothing; Genetic Enforcement
Cultivated versus Uncouth The Italian Chamber of Deputies passed a law banning the sale of cultivated meat. The law will prevent the production and sale of food or feed "from cell cultures or tissues derived from vertebrate animals." Apparently, you can only eat animals in Italy. But they&rsquo...
Inflation Rates Now Flat, but Prices Permanently Up
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at their 1 November meeting; Chairman Powell noted that this was a pause to let the 100-basis point increase in rates over the past year take full effect. This week, an initial sign that progress was being made was the October Consumer Price Ind...
Inclusive Trade; Transatlantic Imbalance
Inclusive Trade Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) is framework embraced by the Democratic Party in the U.S. to remedy past discrimination, particularly against “historically” underrepresented classes of people. The Biden Administration decided to throw the inclusion concept int...
DE&I Comes to Trade; Green Deal Equals Deforestation
DE&I Comes to Trade It is busy this week on the U.S. West Coast. Asian leaders are negotiating with their American hosts on APEC, IPEF, and U.S. – China bilateral relations. The latter is supposed to become less prickly as Joe Biden and Xi Jinping meet for the first time in a year, bu...
Over-greening Bees; China versus Labor; Farm Policy
Over-greening Bees In 2018 we were all warned that a third or more of our food supply was being threatened by the struggles facing bees. Europe focused on insect pollinator health, including banning (with exceptions of course) neonicotinoid pesticides as a threat to pollinators. American resear...
China Teed Up; Reality in the House; Farmers Win in EU
China Teed Up President Biden meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week outside the APEC meeting. Bloomberg suggests there could be a quid pro quo with China giving Washington assistance on defense issues, stopping the flow of fentanyl, and increasing transparency. In exchange, the U.S. wo...
Biotech for Environment; Transatlantic Negotiating Mandate; Indonesian Heat
Biotech for Environment Greens and others in the European Parliament reportedly reacted badly to rapporteur Jessica Polfjärd's initiative that would broaden the EU Commission’s proposal for lessening regulation of new genomic techniques. Yet it is genetic modification technologies th...
Trade Policy Developments; Dutch Politics
Trade Policy Developments The Biden Administration is making several adjustments to its major trade policy initiatives. First, while hosting a meeting last week of the Americas’ Partnership for Economic Prosperity, President Biden was forced to expand the agenda to include trade and move...
The Non-Sucralose-Coated Sugar-High; Ports are Princely; Future of Ag
The Non-Sucralose-Coated Sugar-High A recent poll indicating President Biden is in some reelection trouble even against Donald Trump doesn’t change the fundamental context for U.S. trade policy. Both politicians have now embraced protectionism on behalf of manufacturing labor. While Mr. B...
AI versus GMO; Self-Immolation; Too Hot to Handle
AI versus GMO Political leaders gathered in Bletchley Park at the invitation of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and agreed to a global dialogue on regulating artificial intelligence. There was a similar meeting in Hong Kong. They want AI businesses to include responsibility in their models, and a...
PPE Your Meat; Speaking Truth to Food
PPE Your Meat President Biden’s Midwest tour included a Christmas tree of presents to rural America. He echoed USDA Secretary Vilsack’s concerns about industry concentration and said the government would spend money to create small meat packing companies and other populist ideals. H...