World Perspectives

Recent Macroeconomics Analysis

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate falling to 6.2 percent, the economy received more bad news as food prices in June were up 8.3 percent against June 2018. This was their biggest...

livestock

Scavenger Fish; African Progress; Glass Half-full

Scavenger Fish To help offset the adverse impacts of the trade war, the Trump Administration has set up a program to purchase surplus commodities off the market, including $300 million worth of pork. The largest single beneficiary has been Brazilian-owned JBS, making 26 percent of the sales. Be...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw markets firm after yesterday’s higher close in corn. Commercial pricing was heavy yesterday in the corn market and the overnight session continued that trend. Wheat futures were higher as well in a dead-cat bounce from technically oversold conditions and firmer UK fe...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as funds continue to liquidate long positions. Open interest is growing for corn and wheat, likely indicating that end users are extending coverag...

livestock

Technology Uptake Policy; Trade War Fallout

Technology Uptake Policy Climate change is making its mark in the U.S. Midwest this season with excess moisture and in other parts of the globe whether its heat in Europe, drought in Australia or excess snow in the Rockies and Alps. Research in the journal Nature says there is now no reversing...

Rising Menu Prices Slow Restaurant Sales

The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released last week, shows growth in restaurant and grocery store sales is slowing. The first notable point in the report was that total retail sales were up 3.16 percent in May versus the same period in 2018. Their overall robu...

livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

Mixed Signals on the Economy, Trade and Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve has released it Beige Book summary of economic conditions around the country. Prominent was the plight of the ag economy, specifically deteriorating cash flow, credit payments and investment spending. Meanwhile, recent economic data together with the uncertain trade situatio...

Want More Sales? Try Owning a Restaurant

The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released Tuesday, suggests that owning a restaurant is likely to be a sales-boosting endeavor in 2019. Okay, it didn’t really say that, but the report holds some interesting insights for the food and agribusiness industri...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments Presidents Xi and Trump Continue High Stakes Game of Chicken Over the weekend, President Trump used Twitter, his favorite communication medium, to uncork a new fusillade of tariff threats against China due to a lack of progress in the trade talks. According to Secretary of T...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s economic situation is growing more complex every day. Both external and internal factors (inflation, foreign exchange, political risk, etc.) are playing against each other, and the approaching presidential elections are only increasing...

Trade Economics and GDP

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last Friday. That estimate is subject to further revisions on 30 May. Of note are the following factors:  GDP growth came in far higher th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Good and the Bad

It has been said that commodities futures markets are zero-sum games, that someone’s gains are always offset by someone else’s losses. Whereas that may be narrowly true in theory, it certainly is not the case for the broader business of growing, handling, transporting, processing an...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the U.S., China launched a series of stimulative measures at the end of 2018. After a tepid January and February, the country’s econ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Agricultural Funds and ETFs

The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...

What do February’s Retail Sales Mean for Agriculture?

The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its monthly advanced estimates of retail and food service sales, which are widely encouraging from a macroeco...

Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again

The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term. He has a solid political base of supporters and a firm grip on the Republican Party, and his nomination to seek a...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Feed Demand Continues to Drop Despite a decline in soybean imports, China’s soymeal inventories continue to rise as domestic feed demand remains soft. Even with the central government’s efforts to inject new stimulus into the economy to off...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country typically experiences a run-up in consumer prices during January as a result of increased food expenditures. This is particularly true of fres...

soy-oilseeds

The Checkered Use of Tariffs

President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his administration’s foreign and economic policies. He has said on numerous occasions that he “likes tariffs” and that they will he...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Monthly Food Inflation Hits Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years With China’s annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate falling to 6.2 percent, the economy received more bad news as food prices in June were up 8.3 percent against June 2018. This was their biggest...

livestock

Scavenger Fish; African Progress; Glass Half-full

Scavenger Fish To help offset the adverse impacts of the trade war, the Trump Administration has set up a program to purchase surplus commodities off the market, including $300 million worth of pork. The largest single beneficiary has been Brazilian-owned JBS, making 26 percent of the sales. Be...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw markets firm after yesterday’s higher close in corn. Commercial pricing was heavy yesterday in the corn market and the overnight session continued that trend. Wheat futures were higher as well in a dead-cat bounce from technically oversold conditions and firmer UK fe...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw prices mostly lower as wheat futures came under pressure from the advancing HRW harvest. Trading volume was moderate overnight as funds continue to liquidate long positions. Open interest is growing for corn and wheat, likely indicating that end users are extending coverag...

livestock

Technology Uptake Policy; Trade War Fallout

Technology Uptake Policy Climate change is making its mark in the U.S. Midwest this season with excess moisture and in other parts of the globe whether its heat in Europe, drought in Australia or excess snow in the Rockies and Alps. Research in the journal Nature says there is now no reversing...

Rising Menu Prices Slow Restaurant Sales

The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released last week, shows growth in restaurant and grocery store sales is slowing. The first notable point in the report was that total retail sales were up 3.16 percent in May versus the same period in 2018. Their overall robu...

livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

Mixed Signals on the Economy, Trade and Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve has released it Beige Book summary of economic conditions around the country. Prominent was the plight of the ag economy, specifically deteriorating cash flow, credit payments and investment spending. Meanwhile, recent economic data together with the uncertain trade situatio...

Want More Sales? Try Owning a Restaurant

The U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly advance retail sales report, released Tuesday, suggests that owning a restaurant is likely to be a sales-boosting endeavor in 2019. Okay, it didn’t really say that, but the report holds some interesting insights for the food and agribusiness industri...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments Presidents Xi and Trump Continue High Stakes Game of Chicken Over the weekend, President Trump used Twitter, his favorite communication medium, to uncork a new fusillade of tariff threats against China due to a lack of progress in the trade talks. According to Secretary of T...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy Developments China Highlights Overseas Ag Investments at Belt and Road Forum The summit last week in Beijing touting China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as its approach to building new international relationships also highlighted its overseas agricultural investment...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Macroeconomic Situation Argentina’s economic situation is growing more complex every day. Both external and internal factors (inflation, foreign exchange, political risk, etc.) are playing against each other, and the approaching presidential elections are only increasing...

Trade Economics and GDP

U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth reached 3.2 percent, according to the initial report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last Friday. That estimate is subject to further revisions on 30 May. Of note are the following factors:  GDP growth came in far higher th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Good and the Bad

It has been said that commodities futures markets are zero-sum games, that someone’s gains are always offset by someone else’s losses. Whereas that may be narrowly true in theory, it certainly is not the case for the broader business of growing, handling, transporting, processing an...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends March Economic Data Points to Effects of Stimulus and ASF In response to a sharp economic slowdown and the ongoing impact of the trade war with the U.S., China launched a series of stimulative measures at the end of 2018. After a tepid January and February, the country’s econ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Agricultural Funds and ETFs

The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...

What do February’s Retail Sales Mean for Agriculture?

The consumer is often said to be the backbone of the U.S. economy, and that looks to be a positive factor for the food and agricultural sectors. The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its monthly advanced estimates of retail and food service sales, which are widely encouraging from a macroeco...

Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again

The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term. He has a solid political base of supporters and a firm grip on the Republican Party, and his nomination to seek a...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Climbs Again as Feed Demand Continues to Drop Despite a decline in soybean imports, China’s soymeal inventories continue to rise as domestic feed demand remains soft. Even with the central government’s efforts to inject new stimulus into the economy to off...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Lower Food Prices Push Inflation Down in January With China’s major holiday occurring just around the corner in February, the country typically experiences a run-up in consumer prices during January as a result of increased food expenditures. This is particularly true of fres...

soy-oilseeds

The Checkered Use of Tariffs

President Donald Trump, a self-declared “Tariff Man,” has made the threat and use of tariffs one of the chief operating mechanisms of his administration’s foreign and economic policies. He has said on numerous occasions that he “likes tariffs” and that they will he...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

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