World Perspectives

Recent Macroeconomics Analysis

soy-oilseeds softs

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 29 percent higher than last year. Two possible reasons for this are the higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) announced by the government of In...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Hits Seventh-Month High As the trade war with the U.S. has continued, monthly food costs in China surged with the end of summer, rising 3.6 percent on average in September compared with a year ago. For 2018, this represents the biggest uptick since February when pric...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Value of China’s Agricultural Imports in September Higher than a Year Ago China’s agricultural imports in September were valued at $11.8 billion, up $1.14 billion (+10.7 percent) versus the same month last year but down $900 million (-7.1 percent) from this past August...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Fall to Ten-Year Low The USDA-GATS October export data, which covers monthly figures through August 2018, underscores the deep impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict. It shows that just 345,300.4 MT of U.S. agricultural products were shipped to the Middle...

soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Major Feed Companies Hike Price to Offset Tariffs During the last week of September, several large feed manufacturers, including New Hope Group, Charoen Pokphand (CP), and China Haida Feed Group, announced plans to increase the prices of their feed products. This is the second time in...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Are Commodities Underpriced?

These are particularly risky times for commodity traders. Raw material markets are being pushed and pulled by geopolitical forces as well as rapidly changing and sometimes contradictory macro influences. The fundamentals of supply and demand seem to have been shunted to the sidelines. Consider...

The Politics of Trade

The Trump administration had set 30 September as the deadline for creation of a new trade agreement to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. This deadline was based on timing the U.S. congressional approval process so that outgoing Mex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - September 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...

energy biofuel soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Money Flows versus the Market

WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest volume and value levels for that month since 2007. With sorghum and wheat exports dropping to zero and soybean shipments at their lowest in...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine Export Duties Last week the Argentine government announced an emergency plan to reduce the state deficit, which includes an export duty on agricultural products. Since last Tuesday, the duty rate of 4 pesos for every U.S. dollar of value on those exports was applied as of last Tuesday...

livestock

Why Moo and No Squawk; Trump Attacks; Indonesia FTA’s

Why Moo and No Squawk? Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. may not end for a while yet. President Trump does not believe he has yet to achieve maximum discomfort on the part of Ottawa (or Brussels, Beijing or Geneva). And he does not believe he maximizes his side of the bargain until...

wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...

Crunch Time for NAFTA 2.0

Experienced trade negotiators (we were involved once as an official commercial observer) know that there is one thread common to virtually all international trade negotiations, which is that such talks almost always take as long as the amount of time available for them and are finalized at figu...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the  29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...

soy-oilseeds

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...

Lucky Policymakers; Ag’s Future

Lucky Policymakers Former U.S. President Bill Clinton had his share of notoriety, but his political survival was based in part due to the fortune of a humming economy. Donald Trump is benefiting similarly and though a few agricultural commodities like soybeans are being hurt, supply shortages a...

Tariffs and Foreign Exchange

In the complex dynamics of the global economy, it is sometimes difficult to discern what is cause and what is effect. Not surprisingly, however, the Chinese yuan has dropped 9 percent against the U.S. dollar since mid-April amidst the trade sanctions being imposed between the U.S. and China. Th...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It’s been an interesting week with the following highlights: - USDA’s $12 billion farm rescue plan (income redistribution) didn’t find many supporters. Details of how the cash will be spread around are still very sketchy. Even some of the major commodity groups continue to sug...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - July 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...

soy-oilseeds softs

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Continue to Rise; Imports Required In the past 15 days, prices in the key corn production/consumption hubs have risen 6.7-9.6 percent and are 29 percent higher than last year. Two possible reasons for this are the higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) announced by the government of In...

livestock soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Hits Seventh-Month High As the trade war with the U.S. has continued, monthly food costs in China surged with the end of summer, rising 3.6 percent on average in September compared with a year ago. For 2018, this represents the biggest uptick since February when pric...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Value of China’s Agricultural Imports in September Higher than a Year Ago China’s agricultural imports in September were valued at $11.8 billion, up $1.14 billion (+10.7 percent) versus the same month last year but down $900 million (-7.1 percent) from this past August...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends U.S. Ag Exports to China Fall to Ten-Year Low The USDA-GATS October export data, which covers monthly figures through August 2018, underscores the deep impact of the U.S.-China trade conflict. It shows that just 345,300.4 MT of U.S. agricultural products were shipped to the Middle...

soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Major Feed Companies Hike Price to Offset Tariffs During the last week of September, several large feed manufacturers, including New Hope Group, Charoen Pokphand (CP), and China Haida Feed Group, announced plans to increase the prices of their feed products. This is the second time in...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Are Commodities Underpriced?

These are particularly risky times for commodity traders. Raw material markets are being pushed and pulled by geopolitical forces as well as rapidly changing and sometimes contradictory macro influences. The fundamentals of supply and demand seem to have been shunted to the sidelines. Consider...

The Politics of Trade

The Trump administration had set 30 September as the deadline for creation of a new trade agreement to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. This deadline was based on timing the U.S. congressional approval process so that outgoing Mex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - September 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...

energy biofuel soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Lower Gasoline Prices Possible The average gasoline price in New Delhi is Rs.80/litre, up 3.57 percent from Rs.77.24/liter last month and 14.46 percent higher than a year ago. Higher crude prices, compounded by the strong U.S. dollar (the exchange rate was Rs.72.2/USD on 7 September 2018), is l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Money Flows versus the Market

WPI’s recent research suggests December corn futures are likely to see additional selling pressure while a bottom may be approaching for November soybean futures. The wheat market outlook is mixed with funds reportedly holding a small long position but more recent data suggesting they hav...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Export Data Reflects Impact of New Tariffs U.S. agricultural exports to China i fell to 488,810.2 MT worth $480.6 million in July, the lowest volume and value levels for that month since 2007. With sorghum and wheat exports dropping to zero and soybean shipments at their lowest in...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine Export Duties Last week the Argentine government announced an emergency plan to reduce the state deficit, which includes an export duty on agricultural products. Since last Tuesday, the duty rate of 4 pesos for every U.S. dollar of value on those exports was applied as of last Tuesday...

livestock

Why Moo and No Squawk; Trump Attacks; Indonesia FTA’s

Why Moo and No Squawk? Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. may not end for a while yet. President Trump does not believe he has yet to achieve maximum discomfort on the part of Ottawa (or Brussels, Beijing or Geneva). And he does not believe he maximizes his side of the bargain until...

wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...

Crunch Time for NAFTA 2.0

Experienced trade negotiators (we were involved once as an official commercial observer) know that there is one thread common to virtually all international trade negotiations, which is that such talks almost always take as long as the amount of time available for them and are finalized at figu...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the  29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...

soy-oilseeds

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...

Lucky Policymakers; Ag’s Future

Lucky Policymakers Former U.S. President Bill Clinton had his share of notoriety, but his political survival was based in part due to the fortune of a humming economy. Donald Trump is benefiting similarly and though a few agricultural commodities like soybeans are being hurt, supply shortages a...

Tariffs and Foreign Exchange

In the complex dynamics of the global economy, it is sometimes difficult to discern what is cause and what is effect. Not surprisingly, however, the Chinese yuan has dropped 9 percent against the U.S. dollar since mid-April amidst the trade sanctions being imposed between the U.S. and China. Th...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It’s been an interesting week with the following highlights: - USDA’s $12 billion farm rescue plan (income redistribution) didn’t find many supporters. Details of how the cash will be spread around are still very sketchy. Even some of the major commodity groups continue to sug...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - July 2018

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of the U.S. grain industry, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs and equipment, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future p...

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