Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT out of total grain production of 19.8 MMT, including rice. Iran’s total grain imports are seen as reaching 14.9 MMT. Iran’s govern...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to October in order to protect local wheat production has surprised and upset the wheat trade in Turkey and internationally. Turkey’s la...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGAO) while at the same time calling for the removal of South Africa and Nigeria from the agreement because...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead gotten worse. This year’s El Niño has helped make a bad situation worse. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Networ...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Russia is notably absent. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected with 90 percent of the vote and is now formi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized “baladi” bread for the first time in 30 years. The price will increase by 400 percent from $0.001 per piece to $0.004 per piece...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zimbabwe, Mexico, and Sweden as part of its plans to increase the number of sources for its yearly wheat requirements. According to news repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreement with the government that would guarantee the purchase of 650,000 MT of KRG wheat production. In 2023, Iraq bought 500,000 MT of KRG wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the global output of cotton. Four small African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) formed the Cotton-4 or C-4 consortium many years...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt may become a market for South African maize expo...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commodity are delayed departing for Egypt. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a tight grip over the military and the government, but war on the b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has re...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan has banned the import of wheat and the export of wheat flour in order to “regulate the wheat market”. The ban on wheat flour exports only covers flour made from imported wheat. Pakistan’...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is the largest importer of Russian wheat with imports of 8.6 MMT in MY 2023/24 that ended June 30. Egypt’s government purchases of local wheat have reached 3.55 MMT causing the target purchase to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports receiving 3.55 MMT of local wheat from farmers in this year’s harvest. The government’s local wheat buying target of 3.5 MMT has been exceeded. Egypt’s wheat reserves now stand at 6...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran’s wheat production is forecast by the FAO to be at 13.5 MMT out of total grain production of 19.8 MMT, including rice. Iran’s total grain imports are seen as reaching 14.9 MMT. Iran’s govern...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey’s announcement that it would stop wheat imports from June to October in order to protect local wheat production has surprised and upset the wheat trade in Turkey and internationally. Turkey’s la...
U.S. Pork Kept Out of Africa
At a recent hearing of the Senate Finance Committee, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) highlighted Africa’s call for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGAO) while at the same time calling for the removal of South Africa and Nigeria from the agreement because...
El Niño Sparks Corn Demand
Corn production in Sub-Saharan Africa has been volatile for decades but when technology and investment should have been making it less so, it has instead gotten worse. This year’s El Niño has helped make a bad situation worse. USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Networ...
Egypt Needs Wheat
Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 470 KMT of wheat today. It will come from four countries: Romania, France, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Russia is notably absent. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was re-elected with 90 percent of the vote and is now formi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s government has decided to increase the price of subsidized “baladi” bread for the first time in 30 years. The price will increase by 400 percent from $0.001 per piece to $0.004 per piece...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of importing wheat from Zimbabwe, Mexico, and Sweden as part of its plans to increase the number of sources for its yearly wheat requirements. According to news repor...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) hopes to reach an agreement with the government that would guarantee the purchase of 650,000 MT of KRG wheat production. In 2023, Iraq bought 500,000 MT of KRG wheat...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Saudi Arabia’s Modern Mills Company is now trading its shares on the Saudi Exchange. Thirty percent of its shares were offered to public, retail, and institutional investors and the IPO was vastly oversubscr...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Meeting with the Cotton Hopeful
Although many small developing countries produce cotton, about five countries produce most of the fiber. China and India alone account for nearly half the global output of cotton. Four small African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali) formed the Cotton-4 or C-4 consortium many years...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has received 1,000,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt may become a market for South African maize expo...
Egyptian Food Inflation
Bread is a critical basic food in Egypt and Russia has been a prime supplier. But Russian wheat prices have been rising, and now two shiploads of the commodity are delayed departing for Egypt. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a tight grip over the military and the government, but war on the b...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports it has received 900,000 MT of local wheat since the harvest began on 13 April. The government’s target is to receive 3.5 MMT from the 2024 harvest. Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has re...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...