Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and wheat stocks could drop to the lowest level seen in 20 years. Severe weakness in the Egyptian pound and a lack of foreign exchange are seen as t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2024 as a result of the Red Sea difficulties near Yemen which is causing the rerouting of vessels. Actual vessel passages are down by 30 perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine” program. Egypt’s Prime Minister says that inflation will be down to 10 percent by 2025 due to the government’s economic r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia in addition to existing members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Further expansion is expected i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at 239 percent, Turkey at 76 percent, Egypt at 74 percent, Ghana at 49 percent, and Iran at 39 percent. Egypt’s consumption of food stapl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 percent with food price inflation seen at 64.5 percent. However, inflation in expected to move higher in the coming weeks because of the Israel/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces said to be from Yemen or Somalia. Attackers say that they are only attacking vessels with some relationship with Israel. Both Zim lines and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a recent FAO report. 2023/24 wheat imports are seen as 1.8 MMT, which is below import levels of the last two years, although the five -year ave...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,000 MT donation of wheat and grain. Bangladesh grain imports for 2023/24 are seen by the FAO as 6.1 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of maize. Local p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully compensated by the government. There has been no reported damage of any vessel from missiles/rockets. Shipping lines have been advised to ho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of 1 MMT of wheat during 2023/24 – this in order to keep wheat reserve stock levels. Importation will be by the Trading Corporation o...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia to third countries using “safe, alternative” Iran routes. Iranian officials say that this Russia/Iran route is yet to be used bu...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be down by 500,000 MT to 2.5 MMT due to drought which will see wheat imports increase to 9 MMT. Barley production will be the same as 2022 at 1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas of the country. The government says that the crops are now too mature for normal pesticide sprays. Pakistan could face a shortage of up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Squeeze on White Corn
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee warns that instead of a previously expected 13.8 percent increase in maize production in 2024/25, output could fall to a five year low on account of El Nino. The shortfall is particularly acute for white corn, with the price rising 30 percent thus f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Prime minister says that the prices of essential goods will drop by 15 to 20 percent in coming days. He added that $4.5 billion of goods delayed in ports due to unavailable foreign exchange will now...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain information and activity in the MEA region was reduced greatly this past week as it was the first week of Ramadan with reduced working hours for businesses, banks and government offices. Pakistan...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt and the IMF have signed an agreement for $8 billion in financing, increased from the expected $3 billion due to “significant macroeconomic challenges”. Egypt has devalued its currency versu...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Muslim holy month of Ramadan will begin in the region on 11 or 12 March and will end on 9 or 10 April. Business, government, and banking working hours will be reduced during the Ramadan period. Egypt will be c...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is expected to increase its local wheat purchase price this year due to inflationary pressures. The government advised that the 2024 price will be announced shortly following a ministerial meeting. Egyptian...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION North Africa is said to be the largest wheat importing region in the world according to a recent report and the GRO Drought Index. Wheat import by the region in 2023/24 will be the highest in seven years with whea...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkey and Russia are reportedly discussing “a new mechanism” that could export Ukraine grain from the Black Sea. This could mean a new agreement to replace the Black Sea Grain Initiative that Russia l...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt has decided not to set up a wheat hedging program for 2024/25 due to the recent weakness in wheat prices. Egypt has long talked about beginning wheat hedging but never seems able to make the final decision...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s wheat imports for 2023/24 are expected to decrease and wheat stocks could drop to the lowest level seen in 20 years. Severe weakness in the Egyptian pound and a lack of foreign exchange are seen as t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt reports that Suez Canal fees have dropped by 40 percent so far in 2024 as a result of the Red Sea difficulties near Yemen which is causing the rerouting of vessels. Actual vessel passages are down by 30 perc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Qatar has contributed $20 million to the “Grain from Ukraine” program. Egypt’s Prime Minister says that inflation will be down to 10 percent by 2025 due to the government’s economic r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION BRICS membership increased on 1 January 2024 to include Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia in addition to existing members: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Further expansion is expected i...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Food price inflation rates, according to the World Bank, show Lebanon at 239 percent, Turkey at 76 percent, Egypt at 74 percent, Ghana at 49 percent, and Iran at 39 percent. Egypt’s consumption of food stapl...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s rate of inflation dropped a little in November to 34.6 percent with food price inflation seen at 64.5 percent. However, inflation in expected to move higher in the coming weeks because of the Israel/...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Red Sea and Arabian Sea shipments in transit are being attacked by forces said to be from Yemen or Somalia. Attackers say that they are only attacking vessels with some relationship with Israel. Both Zim lines and...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Wadi Poultry, a division of Wadi Group, has seen the purchase of shares in the company by Mitsui & Company of Japan. No financial details of the share ownership have been released. Wadi Group say...
African Farming; European Farming
African Farming This is said to be the African Century. Over half the world’s population growth to 2050 will come from that region of the world. Yet its agriculture is woefully unable to feed the current population, let alone where it is headed. The average yield for maize this year in Af...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s wheat imports for 2023/24 will be lower according to a recent FAO report. 2023/24 wheat imports are seen as 1.8 MMT, which is below import levels of the last two years, although the five -year ave...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Jordan has begun shipments of grain to the West Bank as part of its 45,000 MT donation of wheat and grain. Bangladesh grain imports for 2023/24 are seen by the FAO as 6.1 MMT of wheat and 2.1 MMT of maize. Local p...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Israel said that any ships damaged by the current conflict will be fully compensated by the government. There has been no reported damage of any vessel from missiles/rockets. Shipping lines have been advised to ho...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of 1 MMT of wheat during 2023/24 – this in order to keep wheat reserve stock levels. Importation will be by the Trading Corporation o...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran has proposed to Russia that grain shipments can be made from Russia to third countries using “safe, alternative” Iran routes. Iranian officials say that this Russia/Iran route is yet to be used bu...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Algeria’s wheat crop, according to the recent FAO report, will be down by 500,000 MT to 2.5 MMT due to drought which will see wheat imports increase to 9 MMT. Barley production will be the same as 2022 at 1...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan reports outbreaks of Fall Armyworms on maize crops in some areas of the country. The government says that the crops are now too mature for normal pesticide sprays. Pakistan could face a shortage of up to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...